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Don't get cocky. You guys keep making the same mistake. Gallup basically polls any adult in America who picks up the phone.
"Results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,500 national adults." (from the OP's original link.)
It is not registered voters. It is not likely voters. We don't even know if it's US citizens. Do not mistake it for an indication of how Obama would do if the election were held today because Gallup's sample is NOT representative of voters. And, Real Clear Politics makes it worse because they combine poll results of all adults with polls of likely voters and average them when the two samples aren't even representative of the same populations of people.
All the Gallup poll says is half of the adults living here think Obama is doing a swell job and half don't think so but whether his approval is low or high in the Gallup polling, it doesn't project to anything on Election Day.
Don't get cocky. You guys keep making the same mistake. Gallup basically polls any adult in America who picks up the phone.
"Results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,500 national adults." (from the OP's original link.)
It is not registered voters. It is not likely voters. We don't even know if it's US citizens. Do not mistake it for an indication of how Obama would do if the election were held today because Gallup's sample is NOT representative of voters. And, Real Clear Politics makes it worse because they combine poll results of all adults with polls of likely voters and average them when the two samples aren't even representative of the same populations of people.
All the Gallup poll says is half of the adults living here think Obama is doing a swell job and half don't think so but whether his approval is low or high in the Gallup polling, it doesn't project to anything on Election Day.
The adult models will ALWAYS provide a higher number for obama and the democrats.
As I've said before, his numbers here are basically meaningless right now for 2012, it is 2010 midterms where it will be helpful, considering it will be all about national politics and a referendum on obama.
Quote:
Thirty-eight percent of independents approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, the first time independent approval of Obama has dropped below 40% in a Gallup Daily tracking weekly aggregate.
Quote:
Over the past year, Obama has lost support among all party groups, though the decline has been steeper among independents than among Republicans or Democrats.
Indies fleeing the dems, like they did in VA, NJ and MA. Portends of good things to come.
Let's see where it goes a few days after this announcement to sue AZ.
Keep in mind, these are adults in the sample, which will always be more amenable to obama. Can't wait to see his LV/RV model.
I was thinking exactly the same thing: let's wait and see what happens in a few days to a week, put the Black Panther thing together with the AZ law suit and watch his numbers go south...
As much as the right want to cry-baby and whine, obama isn't going anywhere until 2016.
Like I said...there are some stubborn folk out there.
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