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Old 09-29-2015, 02:15 PM
 
149 posts, read 180,504 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eqttrdr View Post
Thanks for pointing this out to the uninformed, and for sticking it in the face of those who have a vested interest in people not telling the truth to the uninformed.
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Old 09-29-2015, 02:19 PM
 
4,059 posts, read 5,601,995 times
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I'm actually in the 'bubble' crowd generally, but would dispute the implication of some of those charts. Labor force participation is dropping in part b/c of Boomers.

The relative wealth of the Boomers, and their fondness to relocating to 'awesome' places post-retirement is part of the slosh of cash in the housing market as well.

Likewise, the 'Home Ownership' chart is just silly. It uses 2006 as its baseline, aside from the creative cropping of the vertical range to make it look like a bigger drop than it really is. One wouldn't use 'high tide' as the baseline and then suggest the seas are drying up as the cycle moves towards low tide, but that's effectively what this chart is doing on the horizontal access.

In fact, the time range across all these charts is highly inconsistent, with the intent to 'prove' a point by making the data seem overwhelmingly conclusive when it is not. And more importantly, it does nothing to predict when said bubble will burst or deflate.
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Old 09-29-2015, 02:23 PM
 
Location: Portland
1,620 posts, read 2,292,190 times
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Two lower end homes (under $300,000) in Sherwood I've been watching have reduced their prices two and three times so perhaps my wish for a more reasonable market will pan out when we re-enter the fray.
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Old 09-29-2015, 02:31 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,029 posts, read 7,188,252 times
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I think this is a trend for every decent part of central and western Oregon. The pretty, nice and trendy parts of Oregon attract a lot of people. There are other parts of the country like this. I was living in Austin, TX before this and the same phenomenon went on. There were more people that wanted to live there than there were houses or jobs. The difference in Texas is that they will build out ad infinitum, or as far as people can drive in one day. Prices rose dramatically in trendy areas although the entire metro grew more slowly as a result. In Oregon that's not possible due to the UGB and other issues, which drives up the price of existing housing stock in entire metros, regardless of how good or bad it is.

I live in Bend and my house's value rose reasonably from 2011 to 2013 - that was mainly just a recoup of the value it had lost over the dark years 2008-11. It has since skyrocketed 55% from 2014 to 2015. I am finally noticing properties in my area reduce their prices, but they priced them very high to begin with. There seems to be mini-bubbles every year that occur in the spring and summer, decline in the winter, but the overall trend is way up. That screams "bubble" to me.

I also don't know where people are getting the money. I could not afford a house in today's environment and I have a good job. My house would probably sell in a day. The house across the backyard from me sold in August. It is smaller than mine, was in disrepair and has a smaller lot. It went under contract after 4 days of a sign being on it and there was actually a bidding war up. It was listed for about 3% higher than it's zestimate and ended up selling for about 7% more. I could make decent money selling my house but what would I then move into?

Last edited by redguard57; 09-29-2015 at 02:41 PM..
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Old 09-29-2015, 02:36 PM
 
1,376 posts, read 1,308,612 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sherwoody View Post
Two lower end homes (under $300,000) in Sherwood I've been watching have reduced their prices two and three times so perhaps my wish for a more reasonable market will pan out when we re-enter the fray.
People got greedy basically and listed prices way higher than the market would allow for less desirable homes. I saw little 2 bedrooms up the street from us being listed for like $50,000 more than we paid for a much larger home a year ago. Even with the increase in values, there's a limit to every market.

A homes estimated market value or listed price means nothing if no one will buy it at that price. That being said, houses in decent condition priced closer to the average prices around our area seem have pending sales very quick. But I could see the large increases of the last year being a lot less in the next year maybe start to plateau even.

Last edited by CanuckInPortland; 09-29-2015 at 02:44 PM..
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Old 09-29-2015, 04:09 PM
 
Location: Lakewood OH
21,695 posts, read 28,379,702 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bler144 View Post
I'm actually in the 'bubble' crowd generally, but would dispute the implication of some of those charts. Labor force participation is dropping in part b/c of Boomers.

The relative wealth of the Boomers, and their fondness to relocating to 'awesome' places post-retirement is part of the slosh of cash in the housing market as well.

Likewise, the 'Home Ownership' chart is just silly. It uses 2006 as its baseline, aside from the creative cropping of the vertical range to make it look like a bigger drop than it really is. One wouldn't use 'high tide' as the baseline and then suggest the seas are drying up as the cycle moves towards low tide, but that's effectively what this chart is doing on the horizontal access.

In fact, the time range across all these charts is highly inconsistent, with the intent to 'prove' a point by making the data seem overwhelmingly conclusive when it is not. And more importantly, it does nothing to predict when said bubble will burst or deflate.
The relative wealth of 10% of the population you are describing must be very wealthy indeed to make that much of an impact on the housing market.

Portland (city) QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
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Old 09-29-2015, 05:54 PM
 
846 posts, read 607,003 times
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The model of owning a starter home and moving up to a nicer one when your income increases does not apply in the Portland area. Very little new neighborhoods are being built.

For many owning a house in Portland is just not attainable. It is just one of the negatives of living in this beautiful state. IMHO, there is a slight housing bubble with the upper end of housing over $500,000. This is not San Francisco or LA. The income cannot sustain those kinds of prices.
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Old 09-29-2015, 05:58 PM
 
846 posts, read 607,003 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eqttrdr View Post

Stop! You can't post these kinds of facts here. Too many heads will explode and it could get messy.
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Old 09-29-2015, 06:20 PM
 
3,928 posts, read 4,891,847 times
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I watched my hometown, SF, become unaffordable though I left in the 90's, my family lives in SF and other parts of the Bay Area. I am surprised every time I go home and see areas that were once pretty blue collar, now only affordable if a family wants to spend 800k for a 1500 Sq ft house and that's outside of the city. It's just crazy. I aslo watched several neighborhoods in Brooklyn become unaffordable. It's happening everywhere and I do think the Portland metro is next. My family moved out to Beaverton from Portland and we are already seeing homes here sell very quickly and we are 20 minutes away from Downtown Portland. I have a feeling Oregon is going to undergo massive changes these next 15 years.
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Old 09-29-2015, 06:23 PM
 
Location: Portland OR
2,654 posts, read 3,839,588 times
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The graphs are interesting but not sure one can fully plan for whatever it is they may foretell. Thanks for sharing.

If one looks back on the last 100 yrs or so, there is always something awful to use as a rationale for why the world as we know it changing. Wars, invasions, plagues, stock market crashes, rising oil and commodity pricing, natural disasters, terrorism, inflation, political miscues, etc. the list goes on and on.

And yet, we are generally more wealthy, live longer, have nicer accouterments, housing and access to technology that just a few decades ago would seem impossible.

I grew up as one of six kids in a 3 bedroom one bath home. Of course, we did not think it was bad. Everyone we knew was in same scenario. Many many folks would have a hard time with that today. It was the "norm" in the 60/70's. Maybe that house cost my parents 12-15k in 1968 dollars but I bet their income was 5-8k. It's all relative.

Point is - day to day and even YOY fluctuations work themselves out. Over several years, pricing increases regress to the natural norm. It seems throughout recent history, Portland and entire West coast is a more expensive area for housing that rest of country in general. I suspect that will continue. Specific % may rise/fall a little on a short period but the overall trend won't change.

Portland may be in a short period of higher than normal price increases but it also seems the quality of housing stock is increasing due to tear down and renovation. That needs to be considered too.
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