Do you think housing prices will really significantly drop? (Portland: mortgage, credit score)

[sushi66]

Homeowners seem to be really holding on to what they want their home to be worth... or maybe they have to get a certain price for it based on their mortgage, and if they can afford to make the payments and wait 6 or 9 months for it to sell, then the prices don't budge much?

I've been watching homes in my current favorite town (Forest Grove) and most homes are on the market for a good 4-5 months and they sell within about 10-20k of asking. When will I be able to pay 200k for a nice 3 bd 2 ba? :-)

[BLAZER PROPHET]

I don't think you'll have much of a problem.

When the phony NINJA loans were going on the Portland area was considered one of the top 5 most over valued markets. The #1 most over valued market (Chico, CA) is down about 50% on home values. In the news today they state the top 20 most ever valued markets are down over 20% from last year alone. Since we're in a recession and possibly heading towards a small depression and the President-elect has made it clear taxes are going up for everyone, and with so many people losing jobs (like my wife), it stands to reason that housing prices should continue to drop somewhat. I could be wrong, but that's how it seems to me. Less money, more unemployment, no phony loans... usually means lower housing prices.

As an example, a co-worker just bought 2,400 SF house on a 10,000 SF lot in a trendy sub division outside Oregon City and paid $195,000. Two years ago it would have sold for close to $350,000.

[Wicked Felina]

For 200K, I imagine you'll be able to find what you want in Forest Grove, as BP said. There are houses in SE portland I've been watching, they do stay on the market for a longer period of time it seems, but I don't know about the prices.

My cousin lives in a San Diego suburb. He lost nearly 50% value on his house in the past few years. Even he said his house was artificially inflated, just as were homes in Chico. Fortunately, his house has been paid off for several years, so the downturn won't affect him too badly if he decides to sell when he retires.

With projected unemployment rates heading towards 9% this year (for Oregon, and I got that off of one of the news channels), I cannot imagine how people will be able to hang on to houses which were not properly financed to begin with.

I'm certainly no expert here, but I think we are definitely heading towards a small [hopefuly] depression. If you've got the cash, you may end up with choice of several houses to buy.

[newt]

I believe home prices will decline significantly in the coming year(s) in Oregon. As another poster stated, the homes here have been greatly overvalued. Prices need to revert back to historic affordability levels before the market can stabilize. Oregon was part of the recent "Ponzi scheme" in housing, like everywhere else; it just started tanking a bit later (approx. a year) than CA and FL.

[Nell Plotts]

It doesn't cost anything to go to open houses in the area you are interested in to get a feel for the market. If you go to the John L Scott website you can flag (select as a "Favorite") homes that are similar to what you are looking for and watch them. Once they have closed the actual selling price will appear.

I agree with others, prices will continue to decline. If you want to buy a house save like crazy and work to get the best credit score possible. Don't buy a house if your income is at all at risk. Join a credit union that has good mortgage programs, like 1st Tech.

Read the Portland Housing Blog to get a feel for trends (and housing gossip). I recall someone on that forum saying that there is a realtor who focuses on desperate sellers - empty homes that have been on the market 6 months..