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Old 06-24-2009, 02:20 AM
5 posts, read 10,983 times
Reputation: 10


I've been researching the real estate market in the Lake Oswego and West Linn Area. Things are not looking good from the numbers that I see. I'd like to know if anybody can provide a more personal "on-the-ground" information.

Trulia and Zillow both can display houses sold. So I did some searching. The number of houses sold in the 1+ million dollar range is less than 10 in 2009.

If you search the RMLS, there are almost 200 houses over 1 million listed for sale in LO and WL. There's a glut of million dollar houses. The only way this situation can correct itself is if the prices drop. Or it'll take a decade to move that inventory.

I know that ex-Californians selling their overpriced little homes and then moving the cash to the PDX area are responsible for this huge runup in prices since 2000. For you residents, are you still seeing people from CA moving there?

CA real estate is in a world of hurt. I doubt we'll see any upturn in price due to californians migrating north.

That means that the prices in LO/WL can only revert to the mean. That is, back down to a price that locals can afford. If the local population have incomes that can only support a median price of 300-400K, then the prices will drop to that level.

Any thoughts?

George Orwell
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Old 06-26-2009, 12:45 AM
Location: Lake Oswego, OR
30 posts, read 110,695 times
Reputation: 41
as a current renter in LO not really interested in catching a falling knife any time soon, i can only hope prices drop by california rates.

in general, i'd say median $/sq ft in West Linn will average around 100 at the bottom of the trough. For LO, 120.

that's for the standard 3br, 2.5 bath, around 2000 sq. ft.

the larger the house, of course, the less the $/sq ft.

as well, one can only assume that there a lot of people who would like to sell, but don't have to, and thus are staying the heck out of the market.

probably many homes currently owned by the banks, or in the foreclosure process, but not on the market as well.

and lot's of Alt-A mortgages to reset/recast in the next 18 months.

eventually, prices will fall.

unless credit markets thaw, there just aren't any buyers for houses at these prices. you got 20% of a million dollar home and 6 months of reserve stashed away? if not, no mortgage for you.

that, and of those that go pending, often the appraisal comes in lower than the agreed upon price. so the deal falls through, as the seller owes more than that.

tough, tough market right now..
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Old 06-27-2009, 01:02 AM
5 posts, read 10,983 times
Reputation: 10
Hi, may I ask how long you have been renting in LO? I have a gut feeling that prices will bottom when it reaches 1997-1998 prices. Before the current housing bubble started. For you long time LO or WL residents, what were housing prices like around that time?

For those of you who are curious, check out this house for sale. I pulled up a random one listed on craigslist. I'm not affiliated with this house in any way:

Great home with wonderful schools RMLS 9008981 (http://portland.craigslist.org/clc/reb/1241299916.html - broken link)

It's listed at 849,000. It's in WL and the square footage is 4861. Current list price per
square foot is $175. Now look at the sale history of this house:

Home Value Graphs & Charts for 2665 Lexington Ter, West Linn, OR 97068 - Zillow

08/07/2008: $850,000
06/16/2003: $710,000
03/03/1998: $550,000

The house was just purchased in 2008 at 850K! And the people are selling it at a loss after less than one year! This house went for 550K in 1998, that's at $113. About what mazurkur said.

Things will get uglier and uglier in my opinion.

George Orwell
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Old 06-30-2009, 03:35 PM
1,961 posts, read 3,990,478 times
Reputation: 1794
We are considering moving to the area from out of state for work in the Lake Oswego area. Our kids are all in college now.

Where should we consider living, now that school districts are not an issue for us? We want to be near nature, privacy, land and not to be dab smack in the middle of suburbia- been there, done that!

Also want to be near an urban center and public transportation. From what I have been reading on the cd forum, both Lake oswego and West Linn sound too suburban and pretentious.

Advice and suggestions would be greatly appreciated!
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Old 06-30-2009, 06:21 PM
Location: Greater PDX
1,018 posts, read 3,521,386 times
Reputation: 922
Hmm, and the 12% unemployment might also cause some problems that will prevent 15% annual appreciation in home prices in the near future, too...

Nah. Buy now before you're priced out forever!!!
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Old 07-07-2009, 05:51 PM
1,961 posts, read 3,990,478 times
Reputation: 1794
Originally Posted by John Shaft View Post

Nah. Buy now before you're priced out forever!!!
I hope you say that in jest?!
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