Prescott Home Prices Continue to Fall (house, quality of life, to live in)

[BriansPerspective]

Originally Posted by wretched wrench

That is quite a price drop. How'd they do that?

Perhaps I was not clear. The newly constructed homes sold in the low $200's back in 2006. Those same homes as resales or foreclosures are selling for $130K today.

[keninaz]

Originally Posted by BriansPerspective

So, let me get this straight. If 1) I provide factual statistics where certain subdivisions have seen prices rise while other subdivisions have seen prices fall; and 2) I further give an example where land prices in certain areas have plummeted, and 3) I state that I cannot predict if prices will increase, stabilize, or decline... then I am misrepresenting the market? And somehow this is putting spin on the facts?

Yes it's true, when faced with the cold hard facts some will still dispute it.

[Rich2010]

Originally Posted by BriansPerspective

So, let me get this straight. If 1) I provide factual statistics where certain subdivisions have seen prices rise while other subdivisions have seen prices fall; and 2) I further give an example where land prices in certain areas have plummeted, and 3) I state that I cannot predict if prices will increase, stabilize, or decline... then I am misrepresenting the market? And somehow this is putting spin on the facts?

Brian is quite right in this. My wife and I recently sold with a modest price increase our house in a very desirable metro NY neighborhood and bought seasonal homes in two very desirable sunbelt neighborhoods, one of these being in the Prescott area. Both neighborhoods we bought in are now enjoying modest price increases from previous bottoms and a significant uptick in sales.

This is in no way to contradict some of the gloomy aggregate statistics, which are weighed down by defaulted overbuilt subdivisions and less-than-prime housing. But houses and neighborhoods are unique; they aren't homogeneous commodities like pork bellies. Caveat emptor et mercator.

[DellNec]

Originally Posted by BriansPerspective

The newly constructed homes sold in the low $200's back in 2006. Those same homes as resales or foreclosures are selling for $130K today.

So basically you are agreeing with me that home values have fallen 50% in certain Prescott areas.

[nikorock28]

Originally Posted by BriansPerspective

So, let me get this straight. If 1) I provide factual statistics where certain subdivisions have seen prices rise while other subdivisions have seen prices fall; and 2) I further give an example where land prices in certain areas have plummeted, and 3) I state that I cannot predict if prices will increase, stabilize, or decline... then I am misrepresenting the market? And somehow this is putting spin on the facts?

You tell me one subdivision that has INCREASED in price from the PEAK. Yes, there is NONE. Hence the term peak. What don't you understand? Just because prices may have increased minimally over the past X number of days in a select few subdivisions doesn't discount the fact that they had CRASHED before that. Realtors only say they can't predict the market when the market is BAD. Do you think they EVER used this line when prices were inflating? Umm, nope. The market is gloomy and that is a fact.

[wretched wrench]

Originally Posted by BriansPerspective

Perhaps I was not clear. The newly constructed homes sold in the low $200's back in 2006. Those same homes as resales or foreclosures are selling for $130K today.

OK. Got it. Thanks for the clear-up.

[BriansPerspective]

Originally Posted by DellNec

So basically you are agreeing with me that home values have fallen 50% in certain Prescott areas.

I have never disputed that. I just gave you an example of where land prices decreased 80% in one subdivision. On average, home prices have dropped about 40% from the peak.

[BriansPerspective]

Originally Posted by nikorock28

You tell me one subdivision that has INCREASED in price from the PEAK. Yes, there is NONE. Hence the term peak. What don't you understand? Just because prices may have increased minimally over the past X number of days in a select few subdivisions doesn't discount the fact that they had CRASHED before that. Realtors only say they can't predict the market when the market is BAD. Do you think they EVER used this line when prices were inflating? Umm, nope. The market is gloomy and that is a fact.

If you re-read my original post, I said that site-built home prices in the Prescott Country Club have increased between Jul-Dec 2010 and Jan-Jun 2011. I never said that any subdivision increased between the peak and today. Nor have I disputed that prices have decreased (or crashed if you prefer) from the peak.

Regarding market predictions, when I talk about them, I offer my most informed opinion and state that. I cannot predict the future, but I track market statistics and can make an educated guess. Can I be wrong? Absolutely. Do I modify my educated guess to sway a buyer or seller? No. I don't live or die based on the sale at hand. My goal is to give the best information to the buyer or seller and allow the buyer or seller to determing the best course of action based on accurate data.

[Esenjay]

Moderator cut: orphaned comments referring to deleted post

Your prediction on the RE market is mere speculation. [mod cut-- personal] I'd rather speak to or read articles by experts in the field to get a real assessment of the RE future--experts that mostly can perform an objective analysis and write balanced and factual statements.

Summary: Yes, the economy is still sluggish, it has been for some time now. Newsflash--we're in the same situation we've been in for quite awhile now. Film at 11.

[nikorock28]

Originally Posted by Esenjay

Summary: Yes, the economy is still sluggish, it has been for some time now. Newsflash--we're in the same situation we've been in for quite awhile now. Film at 11.

Exactly. Real estate prices generally do not increase in a sluggish environment. For someone to suggest that they have an equal chance of increasing, stabilizing or decreasing is looking at the glass as overflowing and not being realistic.