New WX Alert! (Phoenix, Tucson, Yuma: insurance, house, camp)

[keninaz]

This was just posted by the National WX Service out of Flagstaff. Look at the totals they are predicting for Prescott and Prescott Valley.
If it happens, many will be stranded at home.



From 12:00am MST, Thu Feb 21 until 5:00pm MST, Fri Feb 22

Action Recommended: Make preparations per the instructions
Issued by: Flagstaff - AZ, US, National Weather Service,
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 24 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. LOWER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEY AREAS. * WHERE...AREAS NEAR BUFFALO PASS, CAMP VERDE, CHINLE, FLAGSTAFF, FOREST LAKES, GANADO, GRAND CANYON, HEBER-OVERGAARD, JACOB LAKE, KAYENTA, PAGE, PAYSON, PINE-STRAWBERRY, PRESCOTT, SEDONA, SELIGMAN, SHONTO, WILLIAMS AND WINDOW ROCK. * WHEN...FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. SNOW FORECAST FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 5 PM FRIDAY: BUFFALO PASS 11 TO 17 INCHES CAMP VERDE 5 TO 9 INCHES CHINLE 6 TO 10 INCHES CHINO VALLEY 12 TO 18 INCHES CONGRESS 0 TO 1 INCHES COTTONWOOD 7 TO 11 INCHES DONEY PARK 15 TO 21 INCHES FLAGSTAFF 19 TO 25 INCHES FOREST LAKES 32 TO 42 INCHES FREDONIA 7 TO 11 INCHES GANADO 9 TO 13 INCHES GRAND CANYON 13 TO 19 INCHES HEBER-OVERGAARD 21 TO 27 INCHES JACOB LAKE 10 TO 16 INCHES KAYENTA 4 TO 6 INCHES NORTH RIM 16 TO 22 INCHES PAGE 4 TO 6 INCHES PAULDEN 12 TO 18 INCHES PAYSON 25 TO 33 INCHES PINE-STRAWBERRY 30 TO 38 INCHES PRESCOTT 17 TO 23 INCHES PRESCOTT VALLEY 14 TO 20 INCHES SEDONA 11 TO 17 INCHES SELIGMAN 10 TO 16 INCHES SHONTO 5 TO 9 INCHES VALLE 11 TO 17 INCHES WILLIAMS 19 TO 25 INCHES WINDOW ROCK 9 TO 13 INCHES PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. &&

[Rosanne]

OMG. I'm in Pennsylvania and we haven't had a storm like that this winter at all. The most we got at one time was 8 inches. My husband and I are packing up our house and planning on moving to one of the Quad Cities sometime this year, and I'm not happy at all seeing that forecast. What I usually hear is that when it snows in the Prescott area, it's usually a few inches that melts in a day. We don't want to have to deal with storms like that after we move, so I'm hoping to hear that the upcoming storm is an anomaly. Please tell me that's the case!!

[keninaz]

It is certainly not normal.
For example, in NE PV yesterday we got some 4" of the stuff and it was gone by the afternoon for the most part. We moved from the SE border here about 11 years ago and snow here is not an issue unless you choose to live on a hill and ice forms after a snow.
I remember some 8-9 years ago while living in SW Prescott, where you get more snow here, that we did get 14" one night that hung around for a few days after that. Just a few miles North there was less than 1/2 of that total then.
Prescott can get some big snows but it's rare.
Take a look at this link for some good WX history on the area.

https://www.weather.gov/media/wrh/on...TMs/TM-274.pdf

I also remember reading an article that in the 1960s, I think it was, that Prescott got hit really hard with a 100 year storm that left us with lots of snow but I cannot find it now.

[teddyearp]

There certainly was a huge winter storm in 1960. There's some pictures around on the mountain showing snow to the roof of Charlie Clarks'. This one coming is predicted to dump 24-32" in Pinetop-Lakeside. Of course, this last one was supposed to dump 78-11" and I got maybe 4" at home in Lakeside.

But I have a felling about this one Thursday . . . . thinking of stocking up and staying home for a few days.

[like-2-hike]

Originally Posted by Rosanne

OMG. I'm in Pennsylvania and we haven't had a storm like that this winter at all. The most we got at one time was 8 inches. My husband and I are packing up our house and planning on moving to one of the Quad Cities sometime this year, and I'm not happy at all seeing that forecast. What I usually hear is that when it snows in the Prescott area, it's usually a few inches that melts in a day. We don't want to have to deal with storms like that after we move, so I'm hoping to hear that the upcoming storm is an anomaly. Please tell me that's the case!!

It is unusual, as keninaz notes. Also, weather forecasting for the greater Prescott area seems to be less accurate than other places (in my experience). Plenty of times they've forecasted lots of precipitation only to have none (or much less than predicted). I bought a snowblower four years ago and it seems like I get to use it once or twice a season (sounds like it will be three times this season), but I live at a higher elevation than most of the area and have a gnarly driveway that is a little too shaded. If I had a more normal driveway or lived at a lower elevation, a shovel would be sufficient for virtually any storm we get.

The other thing I'd note is that the city and county are usually very good about plowing - at least where I live. They had completed three passes of my street yesterday by the time I left for work, and had done two passes a week ago when we had a smaller snow event. They COMPLETELY dropped the ball on the New Year's Eve storm this winter, but I'm willing to call that an anomaly. It was a cluster**** of an anomaly that resulted in hundreds of thousands of dollars (maybe millions?) in property damage/insurance claims and plenty of inconvenience, but an anomaly nonetheless.

Originally Posted by keninaz

It is certainly not normal.
For example, in NE PV yesterday we got some 4" of the stuff and it was gone by the afternoon for the most part. We moved from the SE border here about 11 years ago and snow here is not an issue unless you choose to live on a hill and ice forms after a snow.
I remember some 8-9 years ago while living in SW Prescott, where you get more snow here, that we did get 14" one night that hung around for a few days after that. Just a few miles North there was less than 1/2 of that total then.
Prescott can get some big snows but it's rare.
Take a look at this link for some good WX history on the area.

https://www.weather.gov/media/wrh/on...TMs/TM-274.pdf

I also remember reading an article that in the 1960s, I think it was, that Prescott got hit really hard with a 100 year storm that left us with lots of snow but I cannot find it now.

We got about 6" yesterday, and I broke out the snowblower because it was wet, heavier snow and I was expecting a delivery. If it weren't for the follow-on storm later this week or the delivery, I probably would have left it alone to simply melt.

As for the big storm in the 60's - there's a woman working at Pier 1 up at the mall who was a child/teenager during that storm. If you happen to be up there and the store's not busy and she's working, I'm sure she'd be happy to tell you about it. We chatted about a month ago and it was really interesting to hear first-hand. Ironically, we were chatting as snow was starting to fall with a big dump predicted (that never materialized).

I don't remember all of the details, but I remember her saying there was so much snow that cars were completely covered and snow plows couldn't operate. I seem to recall her saying the city was more or less shut down for a week. If you talk to her and have a better memory than I do, I'm sure others here would enjoy reading about her experience.

[agorski]

Yeah, I'll believe the snow when I see it. Even if we get dumped on, the streets will be clear in a day or so.

[keninaz]

I had a small snow blower when I moved here.
Sold it, just did not see the need for it in this area.
Maybe this coming storm will be an exception?
Then again, I am retired so just fire up the fireplace and enjoy the view!

[Hschlick84]

I moved out of Colorado to get away from this weather, and it follows me here. Oh well, just have to deal with it once again.

[AZgarden]

Went to Walmart today and some shelves are already empty or almost empty. Same at Frys in Prescott. Long lines. People stocking up. I guess this is for real.

[Ex New Yorker]

Originally Posted by Rosanne

OMG. I'm in Pennsylvania and we haven't had a storm like that this winter at all. The most we got at one time was 8 inches. My husband and I are packing up our house and planning on moving to one of the Quad Cities sometime this year, and I'm not happy at all seeing that forecast. What I usually hear is that when it snows in the Prescott area, it's usually a few inches that melts in a day. We don't want to have to deal with storms like that after we move, so I'm hoping to hear that the upcoming storm is an anomaly. Please tell me that's the case!!

We've been here for 9 years. The first year we got hit with about a foot of snow so I went out and bought a 24' snow blower. I've only used it twice in 9 years. If it snows as much as they are predicting it will be the third time. The snow we had yesterday, about 6 inches where I am is practically all gone today. At any rate the roads are already dry. I'm not too crazy about the white stuff myself but coming from New York I don't consider winters out here to be any big deal at all. This past January there were plenty of days in the upper 50's low 60's which is about normal for the winter months. With the low humidity it feels warmer than that.

If you don't want to deal with any snow whatsoever you could always move to the valley (Phoenix and it's metro area), Tucson, Lake Havasu City, Bullhead City or Yuma, or anywhere where the elevation is below let's say 3,500 ft. But the trade off is that you'll be frying your ass off during the summer months with the AC running 24/7. Winters here are relatively short as compared to the Northeast. In fact it's pretty nice, most days are bright and sunny.

When it's in the 50's and if the wind's not blowing, you can wear a long sleeve shirt and be comfortable. At night it goes down into the 20's and 30's. Back east winters were what I'd call too long, dismal, dank and dreary. It's nothing like that out here. Besides you can always take an hours drive out into the desert, park your vehicle and hike around in mid 70 degree temperatures as we often do. We love the Sonoran Desert and winter is the best time to go wandering around in it. Early spring and late fall too.

Summers here are comparable temperature wise to the Northeast except the humidity isn't nearly as bad. It cools down by about 20 degrees at night. You can sit outside and not have to sweat like a pig like on those hot and sticky summer nights of the Northeast. Back east we had an above ground pool, you don't see too many pools in this area as compared to back there. Probably because of the cooler nighttime temperatures? I'm guessing that because of that it takes the pool longer to heat up where it's comfortable enough to stay in it? Back east and during the summer we practically lived in the damn thing.

At any rate that's my assessment of living in this area. After 9 years we (wife and I) couldn't imagine or even consider living anywhere else. In our opinion and when all is said and done it's the greatest place on the face of the earth in more ways than one, otherwise we wouldn't have moved here.