City-Data Forum ESPN's new Total Quarterback Rating (game, records, NFL, watch)
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08-05-2011, 09:56 AM
 297 posts, read 340,735 times Reputation: 135

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Explaining the statistics behind the Total Quarterback Rating - ESPN

Anyone excited about the new Total Quarterback Rating being released today? I never knew how to calculate the old QB rating, but from the looks of this one I can pretty much guarantee myself that I will NEVER be able to calculate the Total QBR. They have taken into account so many stats and situations. The thing I like most about the new QBR is that we never have to see the stupid "perfect rating" of 158.3 ever again. I believe with the new formula it is impossible to have a perfect rating, which would be 100. That means QBs will actually be able to set single game records for QBR which will be interesting to follow.

Here are some of the basics:

Scoring: 0-100, from low to high. An average QB would be at 50.
Win Probability: All QB plays are scored based on how much they contribute to a win. By determining expected point totals for almost any situation, Total QBR is able to apply points to a quarterback based on every type of play he would be involved in.
Dividing Credit: Total QBR factors in such things as overthrows, underthrows, yards after the catch and more to accurately determine how much a QB contributes to each play.
Clutch Index: How critical a certain play is based on when it happens in a game is factored into the score.

08-10 QBs: Chasing Perfection (the 3 "perfect performances" since 2008)
Yr. QB Opp. Rating QBR

2009 Brees NE 158.3 98.6

2008 Warner MIA 158.3 97.7

2010 Brady DET 158.3 94.6

I'm guessing ESPN has only gone back through 2008 in analyzing the new QBR. I can't imagine how many hours it must have taken just to go back that far. I'm curious as to how much better these new ratings will be in comparison to the old ratings. Will they merely be different numbers but still pretty much rank QBs in the same order? That would make the new rating kind of pointless. Will be interesting to see if this takes off.

08-05-2011, 07:52 PM
 3,912 posts, read 4,858,223 times Reputation: 1825
**** espn

I pray that any stat crunch espn pulls out of its (bleep!) never takes off.

Last edited by DOUBLE H; 08-05-2011 at 08:12 PM..

08-05-2011, 08:21 PM
 Location: The canyon (with my pistols and knife) 13,227 posts, read 17,988,164 times Reputation: 14678
Quote:
 Originally Posted by nevergoingback I pray that any stat crunch espn pulls out of its (bleep!) never takes off.
ESPN had to devise its own formula in order to preserve the narratives that they've written about NFL QBs in recent years. The alternative was to sit back and let the Cold, Hard Football Facts make obvious fools out of them.

08-05-2011, 10:07 PM
 Location: Waco, TX 977 posts, read 1,631,944 times Reputation: 683
I just wish I was one of the people they paid to sit there and watch 200,000 football plays and analyze them. Dream job? I think so.
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