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Old 08-16-2012, 05:25 PM
 
Location: NJ
17,579 posts, read 39,821,743 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Orangeish View Post
How high would you guys look at Cam? I'm thinking higher than most... I'm drafting 7 of 12 and I'm taking him if he is there.. Crazy?
Not a chance in hell I would do that. I think the odds are overwhelming he would be there with your second pick. And I certainly would not draft him higher than Brees/Brady/Rogers and one of them will almost certainly be there at 7.
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Old 08-17-2012, 08:57 AM
 
Location: Cook County
5,288 posts, read 6,370,264 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manderly6 View Post
Not a chance in hell I would do that. I think the odds are overwhelming he would be there with your second pick. And I certainly would not draft him higher than Brees/Brady/Rogers and one of them will almost certainly be there at 7.
I figure Rodgers and Brady will def be gone by then. I think most drafts are going to have a QB rush moreso than usual this year, and I don't think Cam would be there in the mid second round.

I'd take Cam over Brees
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Old 08-17-2012, 09:08 AM
 
Location: Cook County
5,288 posts, read 6,370,264 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike0421 View Post
When considering Newtonís rookie season, there are statistical anomalies that raise red flags. His 14 rushing TDs are an aberration. He will be hard-pressed to reach half that total this year, particularly with the acquisition of Mike Tolbert. Also, one must look at the last 11 games and realize that his completion % was under 55. Steve Smith is going to get locked back down this year, and there isnít another proven commodity for him to throw to, like for instance, the way Romo uses Jason Witten. Ron Rivera is going to want Newton to use his legs less because you donít want your franchise absorbing multiple blows in a game like a running back.
Then thereís the matter of the divisional rivals. The NFC South is going to be the toughest in football this year. In addition, the Panthers have to play the NFC East and the AFC West. I look for the Chiefs to rebound, the Redskins defense is going to be good, none of these games looks like a Ďgimmeí. I donít even like the games against the Bears or the Seahawks, for that matter.
Itís best to look at how the team might finish, and while this is the sexy pick, I am thinking they might bottom out in the NFC South this year, as the Bucs had a great off-season. Newton is going to be an upper echelon QB, but look for him to back-slide this year on the order of Sam Bradford. First year successes do not automatically build in their second seasons. Compound this theory with the statistical aberrations that Newton had in 2011. I am seeing a 3200-3500 yard passing season, maybe another 400-500 yards rushing, 20 passing TDs and another 4 TDs rushing, and thatís assuming he stays healthy 16 games.
Thought provoking analysis Mike... I'm not sure I agree on the impact of Tolbert being that great, and I don't feel the same way about the NFC south. Atlanta is soft, New Orleans isn't going to shut Cam down when they play and TB isn't high on my power rankings even with their offseason.... Also, the AFC west is garbage

Hey, I'm not saying you are wrong, BUT, I will take the over on 3200 yds passing, and way, way, way over on 4 tds rushing. Bet ya a rep point on each
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Old 08-17-2012, 09:45 AM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
13,343 posts, read 17,437,523 times
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I group players into tiers and, imo, Cam hasn't cracked into the first-tier, first-round quality Brady-Brees-Rodgers ... yet.

I've lumped him into the second-tier of QBs along with Stafford, Vick, Roeth, Romo, etc. that round out the top-10 that do not warrant first-round consideration.
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Old 08-17-2012, 11:28 AM
 
Location: 32į19'03.7"N 106į43'55.9"W
8,117 posts, read 17,344,995 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Orangeish View Post
Thought provoking analysis Mike... I'm not sure I agree on the impact of Tolbert being that great, and I don't feel the same way about the NFC south. Atlanta is soft, New Orleans isn't going to shut Cam down when they play and TB isn't high on my power rankings even with their offseason.... Also, the AFC west is garbage

Hey, I'm not saying you are wrong, BUT, I will take the over on 3200 yds passing, and way, way, way over on 4 tds rushing. Bet ya a rep point on each
You are on Orangeish!

I can almost assure you that Cam isn't going to amass 14 rushing TDs this year. 1st level fantasy RBs don't achieve this more than a time or two in their careers. You say he's going over 4 TDs, though! I look at running QBs and their TD rushes year to year, and they are all over the place. You can say Peterson or Foster is certain to be around 8-13 TD rushes, but a running QB can have 9 rushing TDs one season, then 1 the next. (This was actually the case with Vick from 2010 to 2011)
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Old 08-17-2012, 12:34 PM
YAZ
 
Location: Phoenix,AZ
7,078 posts, read 11,860,485 times
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Call me crazy.....

..but if Stafford or Newton are available for my first pick.....

....I'm takin' one of 'em.

Stafford is a smart pick just 'cuz of his receivers.

Newton is gonna be on fire.
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Old 08-17-2012, 01:02 PM
 
Location: NJ
17,579 posts, read 39,821,743 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Orangeish View Post
I figure Rodgers and Brady will def be gone by then. I think most drafts are going to have a QB rush moreso than usual this year, and I don't think Cam would be there in the mid second round.

I'd take Cam over Brees
Obviously every draft is different. But if you look at any site that does mock drafts the chances are he will be there with your second pick and possibly your third.

And if Rogers/Brady/Brees were all gone by pick 7 that would mean one of Foster/Rice/McCoy/Megatron were available. I would take whoever that was and be very happy.
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Old 08-17-2012, 01:43 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
13,343 posts, read 17,437,523 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YAZ View Post
Call me crazy.....

..but if Stafford or Newton are available for my first pick.....

....I'm takin' one of 'em.

Stafford is a smart pick just 'cuz of his receivers.

Newton is gonna be on fire.
It depends on when your first pick is.

Antsports ADP for Stafford is 2.10 and Cam's is 2.12.
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Old 08-17-2012, 01:59 PM
 
Location: 32į19'03.7"N 106į43'55.9"W
8,117 posts, read 17,344,995 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaypee View Post
It depends on when your first pick is.

Antsports ADP for Stafford is 2.10 and Cam's is 2.12.
Where does Eli Manning stand on Antsports ADP?
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Old 08-17-2012, 02:15 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
13,343 posts, read 17,437,523 times
Reputation: 19655
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike0421 View Post
where does eli manning stand on antsports adp?
6.1
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