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Old 08-16-2012, 07:10 AM
 
Location: Cook County
5,288 posts, read 6,367,818 times
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Yay for fantasy football! This is the general thread for discussions on drafts, who to sit/start any given week and other general strategy. I'm guessing some people have already drafted this year, feel free to post your rosters and others can comment on them. I'll post some of my rosters once I draft as well.

This is a rich year for QBs, a good year for WRs and a very, very strange year for RBs. Besides Arian Foster and Ray Rice, I am really not comfortable taking any other back that high. After those two, you got plenty of good options, but nobody that jumps out as a must have.

Early predictions of busts or breakouts? Rookies to watch for? Lets discuss and help each other out here...
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Old 08-16-2012, 07:39 AM
 
Location: NJ
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I agree with your RB comments. So many question marks past the top three.

McFadden - has missed at least 3 games every season he has played.
CJ - Does he have a bounce back year?
MJD - When does he report?
AP - when will he be 100% healthy?
J Charles - Is he fully recovered?
T Richardson - Is he healthy?

I took Forte last night in a draft at the 1.08 spot and was happy to get him. I then took Demarco Murry at the 2.05. Two TEs had already been taken and 4 QBs.
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Old 08-16-2012, 12:04 PM
 
3,723 posts, read 3,884,781 times
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If you're in a PPR league, the way that you view a running back is going to slightly change versus a non-ppr league. A guy like Matt Forte should be on your radar as a top 3 or 4 round pick. He catches a ton of passes out of the backfield. The Bears now have a legitimate receiver which means teams are going to have to be more honest and cannot stack so many guys in the box this season.

RB has become such a tough position in recent years. A lot of guys do not get the amount of touches in years past, a lot of guys get hurt and a lot of guys have a backup who will see a decent amount of looks each game.

QB is where it's at. If you have a good top 7 or 8 QB on your team, you will score some points.


I am looking for Andy Dalton to have a good season. He's someone that is not getting as much attention as a Brees, or Brady. But he had a solid rookie year, if it weren't for Cam Newton it would have received more attention. He's one of my sleeper picks for this season.
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Old 08-16-2012, 12:36 PM
 
Location: NJ
17,579 posts, read 39,805,910 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TAM88 View Post

I am looking for Andy Dalton to have a good season. He's someone that is not getting as much attention as a Brees, or Brady. But he had a solid rookie year, if it weren't for Cam Newton it would have received more attention. He's one of my sleeper picks for this season.
He would have to have a massive jump this year to be in the same ballpark as Brees and Brady. Those guys almost doubled his total points. Here is one of my leagues last year with pretty standard scoring:

Brees 406 (25.3 avg)
Brady 378 (23.6 avg)
Dalton 220 (13.8 avg)

He was the 15th ranked QB and there were another 4 QBs less than a point a game behind him.


And there is less than a 2 point spread between the 7th and 12th QB.
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Old 08-16-2012, 02:08 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
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As luck would have it, I'm picking #3 in a 16-team redraft, non PPR league.

I'm projecting to get Foster-Rice-McCoy so I'm ok with that. After these three, there sure are alot of RBBC situations so I'm not sure who I will select at #29 given that WRs is pretty deep this year. If one of the big-3 QBs are available (Brees-Rodgers-Brady) then it's an easy choice.
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Old 08-16-2012, 02:41 PM
 
Location: NJ
17,579 posts, read 39,805,910 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaypee View Post
As luck would have it, I'm picking #3 in a 16-team redraft, non PPR league.

I'm projecting to get Foster-Rice-McCoy so I'm ok with that. After these three, there sure are alot of RBBC situations so I'm not sure who I will select at #29 given that WRs is pretty deep this year. If one of the big-3 QBs are available (Brees-Rodgers-Brady) then it's an easy choice.
With 16 teams I would be shocked if they all made it out of the first round let along back to #29. Just don't panic if their is a QB run before you. I would much rather pick up a good WR or RB then the 8th QB.
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Old 08-16-2012, 03:00 PM
 
Location: 3219'03.7"N 10643'55.9"W
8,115 posts, read 17,338,952 times
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You can't win a draft in the first round, but you certainly can lose one. Ask those owners who took Vick last year in the 1st round.

The drafts are won in the middle and later rounds, and analysis that is performed not on past seasons as much as what may happen in the upcoming season ultimately is what wins championships. For instance, I took Arian Foster 3 years ago in the 4th round in one of my leagues, and bidded him up to $22 in an auction league, even though he had a very limited body of work the year previous.

The 8th-12th rounds are very important. Pre-season snaps in games 2 and 3 really deserve attention when it comes to being able to locate running backs that have a high ceiling. Unheard of RBs that are under mediocre RBs particularly fit this bill. I am thinking of names such as Evan Royster, Stevan Ridley, or Ryan Williams.

Early waiver wire pickups, particularly with WRs, often win leagues. Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson come to mind immediately. Usually these picks emerge from teams that have a seasoned veteran top 10 QB. WRs that fit this bill for this year might include Jason Hill, Randall Cobb, Domenik Hixon or Ryan Broyles. Names you have previously haven't heard of, or semi-proven veteran players with injury histories. Laurent Robinson missed the better part of two years, for instance, with injuries, previously showing promise. A healthy year and a new team made him an instantly valuable waiver pick. Victor Cruz didn't catch a pass his first two years.
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Old 08-16-2012, 04:12 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
13,343 posts, read 17,428,258 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike0421 View Post
You can't win a draft in the first round, but you certainly can lose one. Ask those owners who took Vick last year in the 1st round.

The drafts are won in the middle and later rounds, and analysis that is performed not on past seasons as much as what may happen in the upcoming season ultimately is what wins championships. For instance, I took Arian Foster 3 years ago in the 4th round in one of my leagues, and bidded him up to $22 in an auction league, even though he had a very limited body of work the year previous.

The 8th-12th rounds are very important. Pre-season snaps in games 2 and 3 really deserve attention when it comes to being able to locate running backs that have a high ceiling. Unheard of RBs that are under mediocre RBs particularly fit this bill. I am thinking of names such as Evan Royster, Stevan Ridley, or Ryan Williams.

Early waiver wire pickups, particularly with WRs, often win leagues. Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson come to mind immediately. Usually these picks emerge from teams that have a seasoned veteran top 10 QB. WRs that fit this bill for this year might include Jason Hill, Randall Cobb, Domenik Hixon or Ryan Broyles. Names you have previously haven't heard of, or semi-proven veteran players with injury histories. Laurent Robinson missed the better part of two years, for instance, with injuries, previously showing promise. A healthy year and a new team made him an instantly valuable waiver pick. Victor Cruz didn't catch a pass his first two years.

All these guys will be gone by the 12th round in my 16-teamer, especially the RBs, and we still have 4 rounds left. I usually stay away from rookie WRs and take chances with veterans who are on a new team like Steve E. Smith (Rams).
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Old 08-16-2012, 04:17 PM
 
Location: Cook County
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How high would you guys look at Cam? I'm thinking higher than most... I'm drafting 7 of 12 and I'm taking him if he is there.. Crazy?
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Old 08-16-2012, 04:41 PM
 
Location: 3219'03.7"N 10643'55.9"W
8,115 posts, read 17,338,952 times
Reputation: 7287
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orangeish View Post
How high would you guys look at Cam? I'm thinking higher than most... I'm drafting 7 of 12 and I'm taking him if he is there.. Crazy?
When considering Newton’s rookie season, there are statistical anomalies that raise red flags. His 14 rushing TDs are an aberration. He will be hard-pressed to reach half that total this year, particularly with the acquisition of Mike Tolbert. Also, one must look at the last 11 games and realize that his completion % was under 55. Steve Smith is going to get locked back down this year, and there isn’t another proven commodity for him to throw to, like for instance, the way Romo uses Jason Witten. Ron Rivera is going to want Newton to use his legs less because you don’t want your franchise absorbing multiple blows in a game like a running back.
Then there’s the matter of the divisional rivals. The NFC South is going to be the toughest in football this year. In addition, the Panthers have to play the NFC East and the AFC West. I look for the Chiefs to rebound, the Redskins defense is going to be good, none of these games looks like a ‘gimme’. I don’t even like the games against the Bears or the Seahawks, for that matter.
It’s best to look at how the team might finish, and while this is the sexy pick, I am thinking they might bottom out in the NFC South this year, as the Bucs had a great off-season. Newton is going to be an upper echelon QB, but look for him to back-slide this year on the order of Sam Bradford. First year successes do not automatically build in their second seasons. Compound this theory with the statistical aberrations that Newton had in 2011. I am seeing a 3200-3500 yard passing season, maybe another 400-500 yards rushing, 20 passing TDs and another 4 TDs rushing, and that’s assuming he stays healthy 16 games.
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