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Old 11-29-2013, 08:16 AM
 
Location: Hiding from Antifa?
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With so many teams (6) entering this weekend tied for the second wild card slot, what are the chances for the team that captures the slot to go all the way? Keep in mind that the team that does get the slot will likely be playing their best game at the end of the season.
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Old 11-29-2013, 08:27 AM
Status: "Beach time!" (set 20 days ago)
 
Location: Fredericksburg/Virginia Beach, VA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cruzincat View Post
With so many teams (6) entering this weekend tied for the second wild card slot, what are the chances for the team that captures the slot to go all the way? Keep in mind that the team that does get the slot will likely be playing their best game at the end of the season.
Not necessarily. It may be a case of three or four teams at 9-7 and tie breakers. In this case the hottest team may be hampered by some earlier losses. With the Ravens winning last night they slide into that spot for now at 6-6. But after Sunday's games another 6-6 team may have a tie breaker over the Ravens. When there are that many teams at play I don't bother myself with the tie breakers until a few teams drop out of the picture.
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Old 11-29-2013, 08:35 AM
 
Location: Type 0.7 Kardashev
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Originally Posted by iknowftbll View Post
Not necessarily. It may be a case of three or four teams at 9-7 and tie breakers. In this case the hottest team may be hampered by some earlier losses. With the Ravens winning last night they slide into that spot for now at 6-6. But after Sunday's games another 6-6 team may have a tie breaker over the Ravens. When there are that many teams at play I don't bother myself with the tie breakers until a few teams drop out of the picture.
The sixth-best teams in the AFC right now (coming into this weekend, to keep things even) are Baltimore, New York, Miami, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Tennessee, all at 5-6. Any of those teams that finish at 9-7 are going to be doing so on 4-1 winning runs from this weekend. For those teams, that pretty much defines their 'best football of the year' - regardless of tiebreakers. The only foreseeable exception at this point would be a Kansas City or Denver freefall to 9-7, neither of which is likely. The AFC is so bad this year that if the last wild-card is 9-7, that team will have to be hot just to claw their way back to that marginal record.
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Old 11-29-2013, 08:41 AM
Status: "Beach time!" (set 20 days ago)
 
Location: Fredericksburg/Virginia Beach, VA
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Originally Posted by Unsettomati View Post
The sixth-best teams in the AFC right now (coming into this weekend, to keep things even) are Baltimore, New York, Miami, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Tennessee, all at 5-6. Any of those teams that finish at 9-7 are going to be doing so on 4-1 winning runs from this weekend. For those teams, that pretty much defines their 'best football of the year' - regardless of tiebreakers. The only foreseeable exception at this point would be a Kansas City or Denver freefall to 9-7, neither of which is likely. The AFC is so bad this year that if the last wild-card is 9-7, that team will have to be hot just to claw their way back to that marginal record.
Yeah, I considered that, but I am also considering there is still a chance that the melee of tie breakers is amongst teams that are 8-8 as well. Of course, if one of the 4-7 teams, like the Bills or the Browns reached 9-7 that would be a team that got hot in time for the playoffs.
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Old 11-29-2013, 09:25 AM
 
Location: Englewood, Near Eastside Indy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iknowftbll View Post
Yeah, I considered that, but I am also considering there is still a chance that the melee of tie breakers is amongst teams that are 8-8 as well. Of course, if one of the 4-7 teams, like the Bills or the Browns reached 9-7 that would be a team that got hot in time for the playoffs.
If any of the 5-6 teams get to 9-7, that would be considered close to hot under every metric, which is what the guy you responded too said. In that case, 8-8 doesn't matter. A group of 8-8 teams obviously changes the conversation.

I think we can safely remove the Titans and Jets. Titans play @Indy, @ Denver, vs Arizona, a Jags team that has owned the Titans............I just don't see them making a run. Jets play the Dolphins twice and @Carolina; I think 8 is the ceiling for them. Maybe they back in at 8-8 if things break for them, but going deep in the playoffs? I doubt it.

If I had to pick two, I would roll with the Ravens or Chargers. They seem the least mediocre and most capable of getting hot on a run.

Last edited by Toxic Toast; 11-29-2013 at 09:34 AM..
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Old 11-29-2013, 10:22 AM
Status: "Beach time!" (set 20 days ago)
 
Location: Fredericksburg/Virginia Beach, VA
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Originally Posted by Toxic Toast View Post
If any of the 5-6 teams get to 9-7, that would be considered close to hot under every metric, which is what the guy you responded too said. In that case, 8-8 doesn't matter. A group of 8-8 teams obviously changes the conversation.
Right. Got it. Check. Roger. Understood, loud and clear. At the same time, a wild card team getting in at 8-8 is a distinct possibility because it is possible not a one of these teams would reach 9-7. It is likely that one will, but not a given.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Toxic Toast View Post
If I had to pick two, I would roll with the Ravens or Chargers. They seem the least mediocre and most capable of getting hot on a run.
I agree with you on these two. They do seem like the most likely candidates. The Chargers can even up their record with a win against the Bengals this week, and that sort of helps the Ravens cause for the division title as well. The Chargers do have a tough slate ahead, though. If they somehow do reach the playoffs at 9-7 I would consider them one of the hotter teams on the slate at that point. They have the Bengals, Chiefs and Broncos remaining, so that's an uphill battle for them.
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Old 11-29-2013, 03:08 PM
 
Location: Two Rivers, Wisconsin
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Wouldn't it be interesting if after all the hype about the Broncos (and sometimes the Patriots) if neither of those teams make it? Somebody mentioned how teams that are 10-6, 9-7 get in the SB, not necessarily those who are strong all year long. It has happened the last 3 years and could again, will be an interesting playoffs, no doubt about it.
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Old 11-29-2013, 05:06 PM
 
Location: Trumbull/Danbury
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Originally Posted by Cruzincat View Post
With so many teams (6) entering this weekend tied for the second wild card slot, what are the chances for the team that captures the slot to go all the way? Keep in mind that the team that does get the slot will likely be playing their best game at the end of the season.
Highly unlikely, just because the top 3 (Denver, Kansas City & New England) are so good at home, and the 6 will have to go through at least 1 of them, and maybe 2 or even 3. I think the best chance is if Denver wins the West, but somehow gets passed by the Colts for the 2 seed, which is highly unlikely to happen, and either the Ravens/Steelers get that 6 seed. The Broncos defense is their biggest question mark, and I think the Steelers have enough offense to outscore them, and the Ravens defense is good enough to slow down the Broncos defense (Ravens defense has been a lot better since the week 1 pounding, which remember was a 3 point Ravens lead at halftime), and Peyton presses in January. This scenario will leave New England & Indianapolis (2 very flawed teams) with the 2 bye's 1 and 2 respectively. In this hypothetical scenario we'll say Kansas City beats the Bengals in the 4/5 game. I don't think the Steelers match up very well with New England, but Baltimore does, would've just played them a couple weeks earlier, beat them in the playoffs in Foxboro in 2013 and should've beaten them in Foxboro in 2012, so the Ravens know they can go toe-to-toe with the Pats. I think the Ravens could then beat the Chiefs/Colts winner, but match up better with the Colts, who, likely have the advantage over the Chiefs in that game (Chiefs are the better team, but the Colts will be at home.

So could it happen?? of course anything can happen. Will it happened?? I doubt it, because a lot of things have to play out right. If the Ravens win the division (somehow they'll only be 1 back if the Bengals lose Sunday) and end up 4th, I think you can kiss that scenario goodbye.
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Old 11-29-2013, 05:25 PM
Status: "Beach time!" (set 20 days ago)
 
Location: Fredericksburg/Virginia Beach, VA
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Originally Posted by 7express View Post
Highly unlikely, just because the top 3 (Denver, Kansas City & New England) are so good at home, and the 6 will have to go through at least 1 of them, and maybe 2 or even 3. I think the best chance is if Denver wins the West, but somehow gets passed by the Colts for the 2 seed, which is highly unlikely to happen, and either the Ravens/Steelers get that 6 seed. The Broncos defense is their biggest question mark, and I think the Steelers have enough offense to outscore them, and the Ravens defense is good enough to slow down the Broncos defense (Ravens defense has been a lot better since the week 1 pounding, which remember was a 3 point Ravens lead at halftime), and Peyton presses in January. This scenario will leave New England & Indianapolis (2 very flawed teams) with the 2 bye's 1 and 2 respectively. In this hypothetical scenario we'll say Kansas City beats the Bengals in the 4/5 game. I don't think the Steelers match up very well with New England, but Baltimore does, would've just played them a couple weeks earlier, beat them in the playoffs in Foxboro in 2013 and should've beaten them in Foxboro in 2012, so the Ravens know they can go toe-to-toe with the Pats. I think the Ravens could then beat the Chiefs/Colts winner, but match up better with the Colts, who, likely have the advantage over the Chiefs in that game (Chiefs are the better team, but the Colts will be at home.

So could it happen?? of course anything can happen. Will it happened?? I doubt it, because a lot of things have to play out right. If the Ravens win the division (somehow they'll only be 1 back if the Bengals lose Sunday) and end up 4th, I think you can kiss that scenario goodbye.
This is actually not far-fetched at all.

But an intriguing scenario is the Chiefs beat the Broncos for the AFC West title. Don't get me wrong, I'm a Broncos fan so I don't want to see this happen! The Broncos then slide into the wild card. The Chiefs can still finish 14-2 and lock up home field advantage through the playoffs. The Broncos as a road team would most likely face off against the Colts or Bengals under this scenario.

In theory, the Bengals, Colts, Chiefs, Patriots, and Broncos all have a shot at those top two seeds. The Bengals and Colts may be longshots, though.

As for that final playoff seed, it will be interesting to see who wins this weekend and how that shapes the playoff picture. If a whole bunch of those 5-6 teams lose, this may be good news for the Ravens who now hold the slot by default.

Last edited by iknowftbll; 11-29-2013 at 05:34 PM..
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