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Old 12-09-2014, 06:05 PM
FBJ
 
Location: Tall Building down by the river
39,615 posts, read 50,345,998 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rarog View Post
Disagree. Ravens have been going for it on 4th down so much this year (many teams have). You take the points in most situations, especially early. When you're down 10 in the first half and get 0 points, then end up coming back and losing by 2, it's no good.
I never liked when my team had to settle for a FG on the opening drive because the other team just comes back and goes up 7-3
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Old 12-09-2014, 07:32 PM
 
1,153 posts, read 1,059,199 times
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I did the playoff machine and came up with the following:

1) Patriots (13-3)-win out; Colts put pressure on Patriots to keep winning so they can get bye week. Bills and Dolphins at home and Jets on the road are all very winnable.

2) Broncos (13-3)-win out; Same as Patriots. Peyton needs a bye week badly. I think they can eke out wins at San Diego and Cincy and at home against Oakland.

3) Colts (12-4)-win out; I think they'll beat Texans at home and Cowboys and Titans on the road.

4) Ravens (11-5)-win out; Jaguars should be an easy win. I think they will beat Texans on the road and Browns at home too.

5) Chiefs (10-6)-win out; I think they right the ship this week against the Raiders and then upset both the Steelers and Chargers on the road to surprise everyone and make the playoffs.

6) Bengals (9-6-1)-I think they'll beat the Browns this Sunday and that'll be enough to back into a wild card spot. They'll then get embarrassed in the first round of the playoffs as usual.

I think the Dolphins, Steelers, and Chargers will all end up at 9-7.

Last edited by maniac77; 12-09-2014 at 07:53 PM..
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Old 12-13-2014, 07:34 AM
Status: "Beach time!" (set 27 days ago)
 
Location: Fredericksburg/Virginia Beach, VA
10,701 posts, read 11,102,931 times
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Both the Pats and Broncos can improve to 11-3 with wins this weekend, and in doing so clinch their divisions.
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Old 12-13-2014, 09:42 AM
 
Location: Type 0.7 Kardashev
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FBJ View Post
I will never understand why NFL coaches are so quick to settle for a FG. And I never bought into the argument that you come away with points because 3-0 is not much of an accomplishment. To me a FG is only acceptable when you are up 20-0 and making it 23-0
Because they can do basic math.

Let's say you have a fourth-and-five from the 28 yard line. Your options are to try a field goal or go for a first down. The field goal attempt would be a 45-yard attempt. Since all field goals so far this year from the 40-49-yard range are being hit at an 81% rate, we can figure that attempting a field goal 100x in such situations will result in 81 field goals, or 243 points. 2.4 points/try, on average. Now, run the same test 100x trying for a first down. So far this year, the NFL conversion fourth-down rate is 47%. Assuming every successful convert for a new set of downs leads to a touchdown, and that each touchdown is followed by a one-point try and that they are all successful, the result would be 329 points. Of course, the reality is that not nearly all those drives will result in touchdowns. A few (let's say, 5% of them - since 13% of all NFL drives end this way, it seems a conservative guess) will end in turnovers. Many more will stall out at fourth down again, facing yet another risky 53% change of failure.

Of course, the circumstances will cause this to vary. Down by 12 points with three minutes to go, a team would almost always be better going for the first down. Down by 2 points with a minute to go, a team would be mind-bogglingly idiotic to go for a first down. The distance to the first down will affect the decision.

But the killer number is the fact that more NFL games are decided by 3 points or less than are decided by 4 to 7 points. Those three points are worth more than you think.
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Old 12-13-2014, 11:51 AM
 
Location: Trumbull/Danbury
6,551 posts, read 4,499,759 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FBJ View Post
I never liked when my team had to settle for a FG on the opening drive because the other team just comes back and goes up 7-3
I think it was during the Jets/Steelers game from last year where the Steelers had I think 4th & 1 from the 3 yard line or 4th & goal from the 2 or something. Anyways, Phil Sims said something like "points will be hard to come by in this game, the Steelers should take the 3 points" and I just looked dumfounded. Kicking the FG will give the Jets better field position than if you go for it, and get stuffed anyways, so the better chance of scoring a touchdown would be by my going for it. If you get the conversion, you either had a new set of downs inside the 2 yard line OR you had the touchdown anyways. If you get stopped, the Jets are on their own 2 yard line with a turnover machine under center. Which option is going to give you more points in the long run?? And since Sims said "points will be hard to come by" isn't 7 points (the TD) more points than the field goal (3 points) would be worth??
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Old 12-13-2014, 01:48 PM
FBJ
 
Location: Tall Building down by the river
39,615 posts, read 50,345,998 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unsettomati View Post
Because they can do basic math.

Let's say you have a fourth-and-five from the 28 yard line. Your options are to try a field goal or go for a first down. The field goal attempt would be a 45-yard attempt. Since all field goals so far this year from the 40-49-yard range are being hit at an 81% rate, we can figure that attempting a field goal 100x in such situations will result in 81 field goals, or 243 points. 2.4 points/try, on average. Now, run the same test 100x trying for a first down. So far this year, the NFL conversion fourth-down rate is 47%. Assuming every successful convert for a new set of downs leads to a touchdown, and that each touchdown is followed by a one-point try and that they are all successful, the result would be 329 points. Of course, the reality is that not nearly all those drives will result in touchdowns. A few (let's say, 5% of them - since 13% of all NFL drives end this way, it seems a conservative guess) will end in turnovers. Many more will stall out at fourth down again, facing yet another risky 53% change of failure.

Of course, the circumstances will cause this to vary. Down by 12 points with three minutes to go, a team would almost always be better going for the first down. Down by 2 points with a minute to go, a team would be mind-bogglingly idiotic to go for a first down. The distance to the first down will affect the decision.

But the killer number is the fact that more NFL games are decided by 3 points or less than are decided by 4 to 7 points. Those three points are worth more than you think.
Im referring to 4th and 2 from the 25yd line on a team's first drive.
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Old 12-13-2014, 01:51 PM
FBJ
 
Location: Tall Building down by the river
39,615 posts, read 50,345,998 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7express View Post
I think it was during the Jets/Steelers game from last year where the Steelers had I think 4th & 1 from the 3 yard line or 4th & goal from the 2 or something. Anyways, Phil Sims said something like "points will be hard to come by in this game, the Steelers should take the 3 points" and I just looked dumfounded. Kicking the FG will give the Jets better field position than if you go for it, and get stuffed anyways, so the better chance of scoring a touchdown would be by my going for it. If you get the conversion, you either had a new set of downs inside the 2 yard line OR you had the touchdown anyways. If you get stopped, the Jets are on their own 2 yard line with a turnover machine under center. Which option is going to give you more points in the long run?? And since Sims said "points will be hard to come by" isn't 7 points (the TD) more points than the field goal (3 points) would be worth??
I rather take the risk of getting stopped and if that happens then the Jets would have had to bad field position and had to start from the 2 yd line.

To me, having a team start from their own 2 with the score 0-0 is a lot better than 3-0
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Old 12-13-2014, 08:58 PM
 
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There are times when I don't mind going for it on 4th and goal from the 2 because even if you don't get it, they have crappy field position. Depends on the game and how good their offense is, among other things. But overall, just a bad decision. Points are too valuable.
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Old 12-13-2014, 09:24 PM
FBJ
 
Location: Tall Building down by the river
39,615 posts, read 50,345,998 times
Reputation: 9451
Quote:
Originally Posted by rarog View Post
There are times when I don't mind going for it on 4th and goal from the 2 because even if you don't get it, they have crappy field position. Depends on the game and how good their offense is, among other things. But overall, just a bad decision. Points are too valuable.
If it's the first drive of the game why not go for it on 4th and 2?
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Old 12-14-2014, 09:08 AM
 
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Ugh, why is this so hard to grasp? Because too many football games are close. Over the course of a season, taking your FGs may be the difference between an 8-8 team and an 11-5 team. The equivalent of last year's Jets vs. last year's Saints (who were just one score away from potentially going to the NFC Championship game). In fact, in the first round, the Saints scored first, going up 3-0. They had a 4th and 1 from the Eagles' 14-yard line. They ended up winning 26-24. This year they went for it on 4th and goal on early drives two weeks in a row. They lost to both the Bengals and Ravens. They'll be lucky to go 8-8 and make the playoffs at this point.

If you're a college student, why not just say "meh, not gonna study for the first exam, I can just get a C and do perfectly the rest of the semester to get up to an A?"
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