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I like the changes! Kickers have gotten so much more stronger and accurate that it was time to put more challenge in that part of the game. I love the idea of the defense having a chance to score two points on blocks and failed 2-point conversions.
When the defense scores on failed two-point conversions, it's an incredibly exciting moment in the college game, and it should be just as spectacular in the NFL!
Since we're talking about kicking, Garo Yepremian died last week. He was one of the pioneer soccer-style kickers in the NFL, and a great one at that! RIP Garo. "I keek a touchdown!"
Interesting change the NFL made today. I wonder how long the extra point has been where it is. This is a historical change.
A few observations:
First, it will finally be possible for an NFL team to score one and only one point in a game. The new rules allow for the defense on a two-point try to score a one-point safety - if they can tackle the offense in their end zone (or if the offense fumbles the ball out of that end zone, or if the offense takes a holding penalty in that end zone). However, since the offense's end zone will be 98 yards back from the line of scrimmage, the odds of this happening would be extremely long.
On that note, what's the biggest loss on a single play in NFL history? I once saw an old NFL films of a quarterback under pressure, and he just kept running backwards - he was eventually 'sacked' (the film was from a time long before the sack was actually a stat) for a 57-yard loss.
Second, the new single point try will be as long as a 33-yard field goal. As noted below, from 30-35 yard NFL kickers are 94.4% over the last three years. Last year, they were 97.6 from that distance. Further, a conversion should be slightly easier, since the center/holder/kicker are never rushed and the kick is always spotted at the center of the field. Inside Slant: NFL's new PAT rule unlikely to make big impact - NFL Nation - ESPN
So, this new rule still leaves single point attempts boringly close to automatic.
Third, here is what the NFL should do:
1) Push back the single try to a distance where it is successful only about 75% of the time.
2) Push back the try for two to a distance where it is successful only about 1/3rd of the time.
This would simultaneously:
*Add some real drama to the conversion kick.
*Keep the kick more economical than the run/pass under normal circumstances (the average kick would result in 0.75 points, the average run/pass in 0.67 points).
*Thus keeping the try for two as still a reasonable gamble when a team is down by either two, five or ten after a late-game touchdown.
Tagliabue might've done so. Rozelle might've, too. Goodell? Who knows - what a terrible commissioner...
This isn’t the first time the NFL has been uncomfortable with how good kickers have gotten at their jobs. In 1974, the league moved the goal posts to the back of the end zone, effectively making XPs and other kicks 10 yards harder. Extra point success dropped from 98 percent the year before to 92.1 percent the year after. But it didn’t take long for kickers to recover.
From an excitement standpoint, it’s tough to see a significant difference between teams making their extra points 96-98 percent of the time rather than 99. Even if misses happen slightly more often, they’re still going to be infrequent enough that I’d guess they’re more likely to annoy fans after the fact than keep them in suspense beforehand.
And while this should marginally improve the math in favor of 2-point attempts, it’s not nearly dramatic enough to make going for two points the obviously better option. (It would have been if the NFL had also moved the line of scrimmage on 2-point attempts up to the 1-yard line, per the Eagles proposal.) Defenses will also be able to score two points on the play by returning a fumble, interception or blocked kick for a “touchdown,” as is the rule in college.
And coaches are already pretty irrational about going for two. They have been converted about 47.4 percent of the time over the past 10 years, which would be enough to make them roughly the equivalent of kicking extra points (from an expected-value perspective; though that number may be low because teams that make 2-point attempts tend to be slightly worse than average). At the very least, the expected value of going for it versus kicking is so close that the decision should be dominated by the tactical situation (such as how far ahead or behind they are, and whether they should be playing it safe or trying to gamble) and how good the teams are in short yardage situations. But coaches still basically only make the 2-point attempt when they’re required to.
If there is a big shift in favor of going for two, I think it’s more likely to be a result of coaches deciding the new rule gives them cover for it, rather than a large and fundamental shift in the math. And there’s precedent for this: The all-time high for successful 2-point attempts made was 59, set in 1994 – the year the play was first introduced.
Moving the EP to the 15 yl is a silly idea. What people seem to forget is that the extra point imo is not supposed to be difficult, it should be a reward for scoring a touchdown. It may be nearly automatic but should be required nonetheless as so many things in life are. I agree with those who say moving the EP to the 15 yl will take some strategy out of the game by basically eliminating the EP fake for a 2 point conversion. The 1 point safety on EP's is silly as well, all the other rules changes seem accretive to the game.
I fear there is a growing tendency to think of unusual ways to tinker with a game that is fantastic as it is, just to show one is in favor of change in some way. If it isn't broke don't fix it. I hope that sanity is restored for the 2016/2017 season and the EP is moved back to the same yard line as wherever the 2 point conversion takes place which should be either the 2 or 3 yard line.
I'd like to see the kickers lining up in line with where the TD is scored as we do in the Rugby codes. Greater skill is rewarded, but the top line kickers taking shots, including from the sideline in Rugby (noting the field is much wider than a NFL field) are still kicking at 80% overall.
Moving the EP to the 15 yl is a silly idea. What people seem to forget is that the extra point imo is not supposed to be difficult, it should be a reward for scoring a touchdown. It may be nearly automatic but should be required nonetheless as so many things in life are. I agree with those who say moving the EP to the 15 yl will take some strategy out of the game by basically eliminating the EP fake for a 2 point conversion. The 1 point safety on EP's is silly as well, all the other rules changes seem accretive to the game.
I fear there is a growing tendency to think of unusual ways to tinker with a game that is fantastic as it is, just to show one is in favor of change in some way. If it isn't broke don't fix it. I hope that sanity is restored for the 2016/2017 season and the EP is moved back to the same yard line as wherever the 2 point conversion takes place which should be either the 2 or 3 yard line.
Sanity in the NFL? Wouldn't THAT be refreshing?
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Sanity in the NFL? Wouldn't THAT be refreshing?
