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Old 12-08-2017, 05:37 AM
 
Location: Wisconsin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill the Butcher View Post
Correct. But Blue's stat is specifically regular season games.
Ok, gotcha. Maybe later I'll look up other Rodgers 4th quarter stats like TDs thrown & such. I know he's stated he feels very confident having the ball with 2 min or less at the end of games & he looks forward to tight games. He's Mr. Cool behind center.

4th q may be his weakness, but other things come into play like play calling & GB defense is pretty well known for allowing huge yardage in crunch time.
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Old 12-08-2017, 07:58 AM
 
Location: Two Rivers, Wisconsin
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Quite a post by Bluedevil, which is fine. I mentioned I like Drew Brees and standing by the judging of QBs by SB rings.

I am a Packer fan, love AR, no mention in my post. A great deal of effort there to talk about Rodgers!

It's fine, stats are great for everyone who wants to go into finer detail, I don't care. Sometimes you can use stats to prove any point, pick one side of a football argument, find the stats, there you go. It is still a team game, factors go into it, play calls, other players, ability of those players. I realize Brady is the gold standard, he's great, has a great deal of come back wins, good for him!
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Old 12-08-2017, 04:21 PM
 
4,981 posts, read 11,048,731 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill the Butcher View Post
That is a crazy stat if accurate. Is that against teams that have a winning record at the time the two teams play or teams that have a winning record at the end of the season?
I'll find the source for that stat for you..

The second question, I'm not sure how it matters? 0-35 is 0-35 whether the teams were 14-2 or 9-7 at the end of the day an "elite" "clutch" QB shouldn't be 0-35 in those situations...

For comparison...

Tied or trailing by eight points or fewer in the fourth quarter or overtime? Brady is your man. His 50-43 record and .538 winning percentage in these situations leads the league since 2001, among players with at least 50 total games played. Quarterbacks, on average, win about one-third of these games.

Brady remains on top even in more desperate situations, having posted a 20-41 record (.328) when trailing by nine to 20 points after halftime

The amazing numbers behind Tom Brady's march to 201 wins - ABC News
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Old 12-08-2017, 07:00 PM
 
4,292 posts, read 1,857,957 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluedevilz View Post
I'll find the source for that stat for you..

The second question, I'm not sure how it matters? 0-35 is 0-35 whether the teams were 14-2 or 9-7 at the end of the day an "elite" "clutch" QB shouldn't be 0-35 in those situations...

For comparison...

Tied or trailing by eight points or fewer in the fourth quarter or overtime? Brady is your man. His 50-43 record and .538 winning percentage in these situations leads the league since 2001, among players with at least 50 total games played. Quarterbacks, on average, win about one-third of these games.

Brady remains on top even in more desperate situations, having posted a 20-41 record (.328) when trailing by nine to 20 points after halftime

The amazing numbers behind Tom Brady's march to 201 wins - ABC News
Asking because I believe i found one game (I only looked at a dozen or so games that ended with close scores) where Rodgers came back in the 4thh quarter against a 8-7 Giants team. The loss of course ended the Giants season at 8-8 so a non winning season. So that's why I ask. Doesn't really matter as you say but just curious as far as how the actual stat is calculated. Assuming the stat is 100% correct it must be teams that finished the season with a winning record. If it is the other way around then the stat is 1-34 at least.
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Old 12-08-2017, 08:19 PM
 
Location: Two Rivers, Wisconsin
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https://247sports.com/nfl/detroit-li...rter-107452303

I found this interesting because there is a discussion of this very fact at a Lions Board. When you page down to the bottom comments, even Lions fans are skeptical how the stats are put together. Kind of amusing!
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Old 12-08-2017, 09:32 PM
 
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So I think I have debunked this 0-35 stat.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers 9/20/2015:

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...1509200gnb.htm

Seattle lead by one at the start of the 4th quarter. Green Bay came back to win. Seattle was 0-1 when the two teams played but went on to finish the season 10-6.


Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 12/29/13:

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...1312290chi.htm

Chicago held a one point lead at the start of the 4th quarter and extended that lead to 8 points. Packers came back to win the game. Chicago came into the game with a winning record of 8-7. They finished the season 8-8.

So regardless of which winning record of opposing team criteria is used Rodgers has at least one win against a winning team.

Who knows what other errors there may be as well as I certainly have not looked closely at all the games.



I'm also still trying to figure this one out :

Quote:
Originally Posted by bluedevilz View Post
"If Brady and the Patriots beat the Bills on Sunday, it will be Brady’s 14th career victory in Buffalo. No quarterback has won 14 games in Buffalo since 2001 … and yes, that includes quarterbacks who played for the Bills.
Drew Bledsoe won exactly 14 games in Buffalo when he played for the Bills in the 2002-2004 seasons.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...r_by=game_date

Last edited by Bill the Butcher; 12-08-2017 at 09:57 PM..
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Old 12-08-2017, 11:44 PM
 
4,292 posts, read 1,857,957 times
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So I did some work and here is what I have come up with:

Against teams that finish the season with a winning record Aaron Rodgers is 1-32 when trailing by 1 point or more in the fourth quarter.

All links below are filtered for opponents that finished the season with winning records.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...r_by=game_date

The link above shows 28 Packer games between 2008 and 2017 in which the Packers entered the 4th quarter trailing by one or more and went on to lose the game. Four of the games Rodgers did not play in the 4th quarter (Rk 1,2,3 and 16). So that puts us at 24 L's for Rodgers.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...r_by=game_date

So this link shows 10 games between 2008 and 2017 in which the Packers were tied or lead through 3 quarters but wound up losing the games. Because they lost they therefore trailed by at least one point at some point during the 4th quarter. We again have to throw out two games in which Rodgers did not play in the 4th quarter (Rankings 1 and 5). We are now at 32 L's.


Now we will look for W's:

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...order_by_asc=Y

The above link shows the only two games the Packers have won dating back to 2008 in which the Packers trailed going into the fourth quarter. One game was played by Rodgers and one game was played by Matt Flynn. So we are at 1 W for Rodgers.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...order_by_asc=Y

The above link shows 11 games in which the Packers Won the game and were tied or had a lead going into the fourth quarter. They also trailed at some point during the game. I checked all of the 4th quarter box scores and the Packers never relinquished the lead in the fourth quarter of any of these victories. So while these are all W's, we cannot add any W's under the original criteria of the statistic in question.

So I believe that covers all circumstances. That's how we get to 1-32. So where did the 0-35 stat come from? I'm not sure. My guess is that it may have included the above plus games against teams that had winning records at the time the Packers played them but ended up not having winning seasons. Of course if this is the case, we do know that Rodgers has at least 2 W's then in that statistic because of the game against Chicago that I mentioned in a prior post. Or maybe someone was really lazy and it counted games that Rodgers didn't play during the 4th quarter.
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Old 12-09-2017, 07:13 AM
 
Location: Two Rivers, Wisconsin
11,723 posts, read 11,546,947 times
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Thanks, Bill, awesome! There is always a line in the sand about QBs, teams, etc., who is the best all time, the GOAT, and it is fine. Everyone has their opinion and if you look long enough, you can probably find stats to prove anything. However, picking and choosing which stats is never a good idea. Last year some were saying Dak is going to be the next Aaron, slow down on that thought!

Hot button item and C-D has all these threads that eventually disappear because some people won't give one inch on their perspective. They will never agree to disagree and a have sensible discussion about it.

Last edited by susancruzs; 12-09-2017 at 07:49 AM..
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Old 12-09-2017, 07:38 AM
 
Location: AriZona
5,230 posts, read 3,124,122 times
Reputation: 5395
Quote:
Originally Posted by susancruzs View Post
Thanks, Bill, awesome! There is always a line in the sand about QBs, teams, etc., who is the best all time, the GOAT, and it is fine. Everyone has their opinion and if you look long enough, you can probably find stats to prove anything. However, picking and choosing which stats is never a good idea. Last year some were saying Dak is going to be the next Aaron, slow down on that thought!

Hot button item and C-D has all these threads that eventually because some people won't give one inch on their perspective. They will never agree to disagree and a have sensible discussion about it.
Yep! It's good to debunk certain questionable "stats" which are put out there by questionable methods and/or origins unknown! Too much iffy info floating around which has not been properly researched.
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Old 12-09-2017, 09:27 AM
 
4,292 posts, read 1,857,957 times
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Obviously it's still a pretty lousy stat for Rodgers though.. But I just wanted to see what the actual stat is.
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