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Let me start by saying congratulations to the Patriots and the Falcons. It takes a lot going right to reach the Super Bowl and these teams have had great seasons. Congrats to the Patriots for reaching a league high 9th Super Bowl. Congratulations to the Falcons on their second (when you've only been to one a second trip can go a long way toward elevating the profile of a franchise).
The Pats bring in the #1 scoring defense and the Falcons bring in the #1 scoring offense. We've seen how this combination always seems to end, but we still have to play the game. To me the biggest question is can that Falcons defense slow down the Pats enough to make a difference? They did play better down the stretch and in the playoffs but now they square off against Tom Brady.
I'm sure we'll see a lot of interesting story lines develop in the coming 2 weeks, and by the end of this week we'll be so fatigued by the narratives and ready for the game that next week is going to feel like an eternity.
I'm going with the Falcons. Matt Ryan is playing as well as Brady, if not better. They will score 42 points against the Patriots and win the game. The Falcon's offense is just too much.
At the beginning of the season Atlanta was tied with San Francisco for the hardest schedule in the league based on last years teams, New England was number 9. 2016 NFL strength of schedule - NFL Nation- ESPN
The smart money says to bet on New England because they have the resume and experience but the eye test this years says Atlanta. New England is a great organization but sleeping on a battle tested young explosive Falcons team is a huge mistake.
Let's look at the Patriots for a second. Including the postseason they have score 30 or more points 9 times, (number)=Regular Season Offensive Ranking.
31-24 Miami (24)
33-13 Cleveland (30)
41-25 Buffalo (16)
31-17 San Francisco (31)
30-23 Baltimore (17)
41-3 New York Jets (26)
35-14 Miami (24)
Postseason
34-16 Houston (29)
31-17 Pittsburgh (7)
Outside of Pittsburgh they haven't really had to face any elite offenses that can keep pace with them. I used the number 30 because Atlanta averaged 33.8 points a game, only held under 30 in 5 games to include the postseason. Atlanta can score from anywhere on the field and with almost any player not playing O-line.
The Cavs won it all last year for 1st time, the Cubs won it all after an over 100 year drought. The Falcons could shock the world.
Not sure why the "eye test" would say Atlanta?
Did Atlanta go undefeated this season??? Last I checked they lost 5 games this season while the Pats lost only 2
People act like "no one can stop the Atlanta offense" well 5 teams did this season and some of them like SD weren't even very good...
As for the strength of schedule argument..
Atlanta played exactly 7 teams with a winning record going 4-3 in those games while also losing 2 to teams with a losing record
New England played only 1 less games against winning teams playing 6 but going 5-1 in those games with Brady only losing 1 game this season
Atlanta may have scored over 30 in most games, they also gave up over 30 6 times this season including almost every time they went up against a prolific offense....both games against NO, GB regular season and SD
Pats have only let 1 team score above 30 this season and haven't given up more than 17 in the past month over 5 games including playoffs...
Falcons may very well win the game I think Pats favored by 3 is about right, essentially a pick em game, it won't shock the world if the Atlanta wins but there is a reason the Pats are favored even if only by 3, Pats pass the "eye test" as a more complete team....
Did Atlanta go undefeated this season??? Last I checked they lost 5 games this season while the Pats lost only 2
People act like "no one can stop the Atlanta offense" well 5 teams did this season and some of them like SD weren't even very good...
As for the strength of schedule argument..
Atlanta played exactly 7 teams with a winning record going 4-3 in those games while also losing 2 to teams with a losing record
New England played only 1 less games against winning teams playing 6 but going 5-1 in those games with Brady only losing 1 game this season
Atlanta may have scored over 30 in most games, they also gave up over 30 6 times this season including almost every time they went up against a prolific offense....both games against NO, GB regular season and SD
Pats have only let 1 team score above 30 this season and haven't given up more than 17 in the past month over 5 games including playoffs...
Falcons may very well win the game I think Pats favored by 3 is about right, essentially a pick em game, it won't shock the world if the Atlanta wins but there is a reason the Pats are favored even if only by 3, Pats pass the "eye test" as a more complete team....
New England passes the eye test? What games did you watch last weekend? New England hit Big Ben only once. If anything Pittsburgh shot themselves in the foot with crappy play calling and undisciplined play from their secondary.
I see you went there with the "Pats lost only 2 games" talk. If that point was valid Dallas would be in the Super Bowl not Atlanta. Even in defeat Atlanta's offense was still balling, at the time that young and inexperienced defense couldn't stop anybody. The only game were the Falcon's offense didn't show up was against Philly, coming off an emotional 43-28 blow-out win over the Bucs on Thursday Night, into a road game with a bye week to follow. Again I'm not saying the Pats are a bad team, that would be foolish of me, all I'm saying is Atlanta is not only beating teams, they are putting teams away. You yourself mentioned Atlanta going up against prolific offenses. Again how many of those did New England see during the regular season again?
New England passes the eye test? What games did you watch last weekend? New England hit Big Ben only once. If anything Pittsburgh shot themselves in the foot with crappy play calling and undisciplined play from their secondary.
I see you went there with the "Pats lost only 2 games" talk. If that point was valid Dallas would be in the Super Bowl not Atlanta. Even in defeat Atlanta's offense was still balling, at the time that young and inexperienced defense couldn't stop anybody. The only game were the Falcon's offense didn't show up was against Philly, coming off an emotional 43-28 blow-out win over the Bucs on Thursday Night, into a road game with a bye week to follow. Again I'm not saying the Pats are a bad team, that would be foolish of me, all I'm saying is Atlanta is not only beating teams, they are putting teams away. You yourself mentioned Atlanta going up against prolific offenses. Again how many of those did New England see during the regular season again?
I see you went there again regarding strength of schedule again how did Atlanta fare against teams with winning records? 4-3
How many times did Atlanta give up over 30? How many times did the Pats give up 30?
Atlanta is "putting teams away"? Which NFL team had the highest point differential in the league? That would be the Pats
Who cares how many times Ben was hit how many points did Steelers put up? Who gave up more points this weekend?
Brady will carve up that Atlanta secondary same way he did with Pittsburgh
Did Atlanta go undefeated this season??? Last I checked they lost 5 games this season while the Pats lost only 2
People act like "no one can stop the Atlanta offense" well 5 teams did this season and some of them like SD weren't even very good...
As for the strength of schedule argument..
Atlanta played exactly 7 teams with a winning record going 4-3 in those games while also losing 2 to teams with a losing record
New England played only 1 less games against winning teams playing 6 but going 5-1 in those games with Brady only losing 1 game this season
Atlanta may have scored over 30 in most games, they also gave up over 30 6 times this season including almost every time they went up against a prolific offense....both games against NO, GB regular season and SD
Pats have only let 1 team score above 30 this season and haven't given up more than 17 in the past month over 5 games including playoffs...
Falcons may very well win the game I think Pats favored by 3 is about right, essentially a pick em game, it won't shock the world if the Atlanta wins but there is a reason the Pats are favored even if only by 3, Pats pass the "eye test" as a more complete team....
Damn it won't let me rep you again, damn good analysis!
IMO, the Patriots struggle vs REALLY good defenses regardless of the offense..... they rarely struggle against REALLY good offenses w/ poor to average defenses. Belichick is a defensive guy, he figures out how to stop great offenses in his sleep.. he will limit the Falcons offense to <24... and in turn Brady will put up >30.. in the end, this looks like a Pats 35 - Falcons 21 game.. I could be wrong, i typically am.. but this is how I see it..
I will be rooting for the Falcons but my $ is on the Pats..
New England passes the eye test? What games did you watch last weekend? New England hit Big Ben only once. If anything Pittsburgh shot themselves in the foot with crappy play calling and undisciplined play from their secondary.
I see you went there with the "Pats lost only 2 games" talk. If that point was valid Dallas would be in the Super Bowl not Atlanta. Even in defeat Atlanta's offense was still balling, at the time that young and inexperienced defense couldn't stop anybody. The only game were the Falcon's offense didn't show up was against Philly, coming off an emotional 43-28 blow-out win over the Bucs on Thursday Night, into a road game with a bye week to follow. Again I'm not saying the Pats are a bad team, that would be foolish of me, all I'm saying is Atlanta is not only beating teams, they are putting teams away. You yourself mentioned Atlanta going up against prolific offenses. Again how many of those did New England see during the regular season again?
Atlanta was held to 3 points of the first half of the game at Seattle. If it wasn't for that cheap shot cut block that took Bennett out of the game early in the 3rd, Atlanta wouldnt have even been in the game. Seattle's pass rush owned the O-line and they were already missing Clark. Knocking Bennett out opened the door for their offense to get rolling....
Versus Seattle in the playoffs, Atlanta's offensive line was still largely dominated by Seattle pass rush until midway/late in the 3rd. The difference this time 1)Ryan was sharper and the scheme called for him to get the ball out faster and they did their jobs well and 2)instead of a depleted pass rush, Seattle had a depleted secondary this time around. Missing the best safety in football, Sherman was playing with a torn MCL the last 8 weeks, Shead went out. That game was going in a different direction if Seattle doesn't self destruct with penalties and the safety in 2ndQ...
New England Patriots won't self-destruct. And I've yet to see Atlanta beat any upper level opponent that wasn't a bloodied roster of injuries or upper level opponent playing their A-game...
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