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Old 11-21-2017, 08:17 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluedevilz View Post
The back loading of divisional games for the Patriots will likely have no effect on when the Pats clinch the division...
I don't see how you can claim this. If the Patriots had played the Bills and Dolphins once each already and beaten each, it's likely both teams are one game worse than they currently are AND have no chance of holding the head to head tiebreaker. That would mean Pats would have been able to clinch earlier had they played and beat their division foes earlier. It may not be a huge difference but if it would have been week 14 as opposed to week 15, that's still a difference.

While things look bleak for the Dolphins and Bills, in theory they could finish 4-0 against the Pats.

Again, Bills are a near lock to lose to the Pats twice given the history. Had both those games been played by week 10 this year Bills likely never even start 5-2. They are probably currently 4-6 or 3-7 instead of 5-5. With both those games still to come. Pats will clinch later regardless of what actual week compared to if they had already drubbed the Bills twice in September and October and played the Jets and Dolphins once each.
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Old 11-21-2017, 01:50 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill the Butcher View Post
I don't see how you can claim this. If the Patriots had played the Bills and Dolphins once each already and beaten each, it's likely both teams are one game worse than they currently are AND have no chance of holding the head to head tiebreaker. That would mean Pats would have been able to clinch earlier had they played and beat their division foes earlier. It may not be a huge difference but if it would have been week 14 as opposed to week 15, that's still a difference.

While things look bleak for the Dolphins and Bills, in theory they could finish 4-0 against the Pats.

Again, Bills are a near lock to lose to the Pats twice given the history. Had both those games been played by week 10 this year Bills likely never even start 5-2. They are probably currently 4-6 or 3-7 instead of 5-5. With both those games still to come. Pats will clinch later regardless of what actual week compared to if they had already drubbed the Bills twice in September and October and played the Jets and Dolphins once each.

I can claim this because its true....what is so hard for you to understand about this??

Head to head, tie breakers, divisional records only matter if 2 teams in the same division are CLOSE in overall record...

The Pats are likely to clinch in week 13 this year.....not week 14 or 15....and that is WITH the backloaded schedule. They didn't clinch until week 15 last year WITHOUT the backloaded schedule

The earliest a team has EVER clinched a Division title is week 11....the Pats did it in 2007 when they were 11-0 and I think 3 other teams have done that...they are about to clinch in week 13

Highly unlikely they would have clinched earlier than week 13 this season if they had played the Bills earlier, heck if Pats had played Bills in the first 4 weeks your team might have won the way the Pats defense WAS playing so in that respect the backloading of division games may have HELPED the Pats this season

You are still speaking in hypotheticals when in FACT it appears the Pats will clinch earlier THIS season than LAST season which is why I can make the claim..it is actually happening...
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Old 11-21-2017, 03:34 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluedevilz View Post
I can claim this because its true....what is so hard for you to understand about this??
.

Maybe I am wrong but I don't think I am. Mathematically, I don't see how it could be wrong but I'm not smart enough to show exactly how the math works out. Maybe others could chime in if they care. Likewise, you have't shown me anything yet that proves it is not true. The fact that the Patriots may clinch earlier this year than they did last year without a back loaded schedule is irrelevant. I was never basing the theory on whether teams in the division would have good years or bad years. That is something that can always change.

You say it only works if the teams are close in record. Can you define 'close'? Is that one game back, two games back, three games, four games? We would need to know what that number is. I say that even though the Bills, Dolphins and Jets are behind the Pats by 3 and four games in the loss column that is still "close" enough because their are 5 divisional games remaining for the Patriots. Now I never claimed it was likely that the Bills or Dolphins or Jets would finish the season on a 6 game winning streak and that the Pats would lose 4 of there last six but it's possible. And that is why this schedule has games still mattering.


You say the Pats are on schedule to clinch week 13. What a coincidence! The Pats just happen to play the Dolphins for the first time week 12. And the Bills for the first time week 13. If the Pats beat the Dolphins week 12 but lose to the Bills week 13 are they still clinching?
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Old 11-21-2017, 05:00 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill the Butcher View Post
I don't know when the Pats will clinch but I'm almost certain that the fact that so many divisional and even conference games are back loaded on the Pats schedule, it will mean clinching later. Now yes, it might mean the difference of week 13 as opposed to week 12. But it is a difference nonetheless. I'm just curious if the NFL did this intentionally or not.

The odds of the Pats winning the games against those teams don't change. But the games still have to be played before any team can be eliminated officially. Sooner Pats can hold all the divisional and head to head tiebreakers against the Bills, Jets and Dolphins the sooner they can clinch.
THIS is where you are mistaken....

Tie breakers, head to head etc only matter if there can be a TIE.....once it is no longer possible for the other teams in the Division to "tie the leader" that also leads to clinching

Look I know you know this but overall record is what matters first....theoretically a team could LOSE every divisional game and STILL WIN THE DIVISION if they ended up with the better overall record....

If the Pats went 10-6, losing every game in the Division while winning all the rest of the games and IF the other 3 teams in the division finished no better than 9-7 than the Pats would win the division even though the other 3 teams would all have at least 2 wins IN THE DIVISION

You said THIS earlier in the thread....

"I agree with you that the Pats will clinch the AFC East as usual but i disagree with your thinking that the six consecutive AFC games (five in the division) to end the season will not have an effect on when that will happen. It will certainly keep a Miami or Buffalo alive for at least one more week even if only mathematically."

I already posted the clinching scenario for you but here it is again, if the Pats win next 2 games against Dolphins and Bills and the Bills lose to KC this week then the Pats clinch the AFC East in week 13...

2 weeks earlier than they did last year when the schedule was not backloaded

Therefore your contention that ending the season with 5 divisional games will keep a "Miami or Buffalo" alive for at least one more week has already been PROVEN false...

Clinching week 13 is about as early as it gets, week 11 is the earliest ANY team has ever clinched.....

I understand what you were saying, and I think in any other Division it would hold true, it appears to be holding true in the NFC South as Falcons are now showing life after a terrible start and they are absolutely still in the hunt because they have so many divisional games left

The AFC East is different, primarily because only 1 team in the Division has a QB....while Bills, Dolphins and even Jets all showed early signs of life they are now all performing about how was expected sub .500 teams and with the Pats headed toward another 12-14 win season the backloading doesn't matter...
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Old 11-22-2017, 03:58 PM
 
4,292 posts, read 1,867,409 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluedevilz View Post
THIS is where you are mistaken....

Tie breakers, head to head etc only matter if there can be a TIE.....once it is no longer possible for the other teams in the Division to "tie the leader" that also leads to clinching

Look I know you know this but overall record is what matters first....theoretically a team could LOSE every divisional game and STILL WIN THE DIVISION if they ended up with the better overall record....

If the Pats went 10-6, losing every game in the Division while winning all the rest of the games and IF the other 3 teams in the division finished no better than 9-7 than the Pats would win the division even though the other 3 teams would all have at least 2 wins IN THE DIVISION

You said THIS earlier in the thread....

"I agree with you that the Pats will clinch the AFC East as usual but i disagree with your thinking that the six consecutive AFC games (five in the division) to end the season will not have an effect on when that will happen. It will certainly keep a Miami or Buffalo alive for at least one more week even if only mathematically."

I already posted the clinching scenario for you but here it is again, if the Pats win next 2 games against Dolphins and Bills and the Bills lose to KC this week then the Pats clinch the AFC East in week 13...

2 weeks earlier than they did last year when the schedule was not backloaded

Therefore your contention that ending the season with 5 divisional games will keep a "Miami or Buffalo" alive for at least one more week has already been PROVEN false...

Clinching week 13 is about as early as it gets, week 11 is the earliest ANY team has ever clinched.....

I understand what you were saying, and I think in any other Division it would hold true, it appears to be holding true in the NFC South as Falcons are now showing life after a terrible start and they are absolutely still in the hunt because they have so many divisional games left

The AFC East is different, primarily because only 1 team in the Division has a QB....while Bills, Dolphins and even Jets all showed early signs of life they are now all performing about how was expected sub .500 teams and with the Pats headed toward another 12-14 win season the backloading doesn't matter...

Blue, we shall see. Come week 13 when the Pats clinch, I'll see if there is a scenario where the Pats could have played four division games before week 11 (instead of the one they have only played so far this year) and clinched in week 12 instead of 13. If that is the case I say we each get partial credit on this homework assignment.
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Old 11-23-2017, 06:45 AM
 
4,990 posts, read 11,080,551 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill the Butcher View Post
Blue, we shall see. Come week 13 when the Pats clinch, I'll see if there is a scenario where the Pats could have played four division games before week 11 (instead of the one they have only played so far this year) and clinched in week 12 instead of 13. If that is the case I say we each get partial credit on this homework assignment.
Fair enough
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