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View Poll Results: 2018 NFL Hall Of Fame (HOF) Voting Poll of City-Data football fans
Isaac Bruce 15 26.79%
Tony Boselli 8 14.29%
Brian Dawkins 8 14.29%
Alan Faneca 4 7.14%
Steve Hutchinson 3 5.36%
Edgerrin James 6 10.71%
Joe Jacoby 10 17.86%
Ty Law 13 23.21%
Ray Lewis 28 50.00%
John Lynch 14 25.00%
Kevin Mawae 4 7.14%
Randy Moss 34 60.71%
Terrell Owens 27 48.21%
Brian Urlacher 21 37.50%
Everson Walls 7 12.50%
Robert Brazile (veteran finalist) 5 8.93%
Jerry Kramer (veteran finalist) 11 19.64%
Bobby Beathard (administration) 7 12.50%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 56. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-07-2018, 07:14 AM
 
929 posts, read 296,266 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RMESMH View Post
I looked at the choices when the thread first appeared and all choices had zero votes....four immediately jumped out to me that should make it...and one for the next tier. A number of people must be sharing my thoughts, as the top four vote getters...Owens, Moss, Urlacher, and Lewis...were the first four who jumped out to me, and #5...Bruce...was the 'the one in the next tier' who occurred to me.
I agree with Owens, Moss, and Lewis being three of the five that jumped out to me. But more so, I thought Joe Jacoby and Tony Boselli stood out than Bruce or Urlacher. Maybe its the passage of time, or fans are only interested in skill positions where there are fantasy football numbers to reference. My first reaction with Bruce, was "no way" (I have very high standards and think "Hall-of-Fame" should be defined as truly great, which doesn't in the case of guys like Kurt Warner, for example). But Bruce was a quiet guy and when I look back not just at the numbers, but also the numbers he compiled outside his time with Warner, with bad quarterbacks throwing a good percentage of those, I'd seriously consider him. But he wouldn't still be quite in my top 5 of the aforementioned choices. I'm pretty shocked Joe Jacoby still isn't in the Hall of Fame to date.
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Old 01-07-2018, 09:00 AM
 
4,979 posts, read 11,042,177 times
Reputation: 11808
Quote:
Originally Posted by bachslunch View Post
Just for the heck of it, decided to run some basic numbers. The average FG conversion percentage from 1978 to 1996 averages out (assuming I didn’t enter incorrectly in my calculator) to 71.3%. Nick Lowery converted at an 80.0% rate over that time.

From 1996 to 2017 the average was 81.5%. Vinatieri’s average comes out to 84.3%.

That’s a solid difference in conversion rate above the average.

And it also shows that the average FG conversion percentage was in fact not the same over that 40 year period. Which means you need to period adjust for this if you want to be taken seriously, bluedevilz.

The baseline FG conversion percentage has in fact slowly crept up in these 40 years. Source:

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...FL/kicking.htm
You don’t need to “period adjust” when comparing Nick Lowery to Adam Vinatieri they were contemporaries

Vinatieri had a higher fg pct overall and significantly better pct from beyond 50.

Explain to me how Lowery’s fg percentage would have magically improved beyond Vinatieri’s if his career had started 10 years later than it did. Because there were other “better” kickers than Lowery he would have just “decided” to kick better than he had?

Because kickers are more accurate today doesn’t necessarily mean you could take a Nick Lowery or a Garo Yepremian and drop them into today’s NFL and they would magically kick above the average of today. It is also ridiculous to project that if they had trained like today’s kickers they would automatically be as accurate. Lowery may have been as good as he could ever be during his time.
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Old 01-07-2018, 11:30 AM
 
1,172 posts, read 477,617 times
Reputation: 1927
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluedevilz View Post
You don’t need to “period adjust” when comparing Nick Lowery to Adam Vinatieri they were contemporaries

Vinatieri had a higher fg pct overall and significantly better pct from beyond 50.

[snip, the rest doesn’t merit a response]
I don’t understand how one year of overlap over a 40 year time period constitutes Vinatieri and Lowery being “contemporaries,” any more than I would consider George Blanda and Dan Fouts “contemporaries” because they have two overlap years during a 38 year time period.

The fact that the average FG percentage during Lowery’s career was 71.3% and Vinatieri’s was 81.5% shows clearly that kickers during Lowery’s career span were not nearly as accurate — and that you indeed need to period adjust somehow. And Lowery’s kicking at an 80.0% rate in a 71.3% base environment is a notably better career accomplishment than Vinatieri’s kicking at an 84.3% rate in an 81.5% base environment. You’re wrong, pure and simple, and can’t convincingly explain those numbers away.

And a cursory look at percentages of long field goals made also suggests kickers were more accurate during Vinatieri’s time at this than Lowery’s. But I don’t think there’s any point in going into detail because I suspect you’ll just blithely hand-wave it away as well.
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Old 01-07-2018, 05:09 PM
 
15,386 posts, read 5,205,963 times
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I will never vote for Owens ,Moss or Lewis. Their character (or lack of)out weighs their football talents.
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Old 01-07-2018, 05:53 PM
 
21,477 posts, read 11,591,826 times
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As a Vikings fan I voted against Randy Moss. He quit on the team too many times to deserve getting in on the first ballot
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Old 01-07-2018, 11:28 PM
 
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I have to agree that it is a heck of a stretch to say that Lowry and AV were contemporaries.
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Old 01-08-2018, 10:46 AM
 
Location: Northwest Peninsula
3,231 posts, read 1,599,002 times
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I had to vote for Jerry Kramer...I played high school football against him in the 50's. I played for Coeur d' Alene and he played for Sandpoint Idaho. He made the key block for Green Bay that won them the ice bowl.
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Old 01-08-2018, 03:31 PM
 
1,172 posts, read 477,617 times
Reputation: 1927
Quote:
Originally Posted by G1.. View Post
I will never vote for Owens ,Moss or Lewis. Their character (or lack of)out weighs their football talents.
Problem with that thinking is that unlike the Baseball Hall, the PFHoF does not have a character clause and is explicit about it. Only what goes on on the field, sidelines, and locker room can be considered.
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Old 01-09-2018, 03:42 PM
 
4,979 posts, read 11,042,177 times
Reputation: 11808
Quote:
Originally Posted by bachslunch View Post
I don’t understand how one year of overlap over a 40 year time period constitutes Vinatieri and Lowery being “contemporaries,” any more than I would consider George Blanda and Dan Fouts “contemporaries” because they have two overlap years during a 38 year time period.

The fact that the average FG percentage during Lowery’s career was 71.3% and Vinatieri’s was 81.5% shows clearly that kickers during Lowery’s career span were not nearly as accurate — and that you indeed need to period adjust somehow. And Lowery’s kicking at an 80.0% rate in a 71.3% base environment is a notably better career accomplishment than Vinatieri’s kicking at an 84.3% rate in an 81.5% base environment. You’re wrong, pure and simple, and can’t convincingly explain those numbers away.

And a cursory look at percentages of long field goals made also suggests kickers were more accurate during Vinatieri’s time at this than Lowery’s. But I don’t think there’s any point in going into detail because I suspect you’ll just blithely hand-wave it away as well.
This is getting off topic and I am tiring of this "debate" but how you can just say "I am wrong" is ludicrous..you say I "blithely" hand wave away your argument over era correction?? Well WHAT ARGUMENT?? Neither you or Chase Stuart have established WHY there should be an era correction for field goal kicking...IT MAKES NO SENSE

Based on what?? The opinions OF ONE MAN on an obscure football database website....

You are not quoting widely or universally held beliefs here, just the opinions of ONE stats nerd with no justification for the "era correction"

What changed in field kicking from 1978 to now?

Goal posts were moved to back of end zone in 1974 so no difference there....

Hashmarks were narrowed in 1972 so no difference in angles for Lowery and Vinatieri in their careers....

K balls were introduced in 1999, prior to that kickers could doctor balls to their liking and if anything K balls are a disadvantage to kickers....advantage Lowery

Equipment? Foot hits ball....no different in 1978 than 2017

So what exactly is the argument for why era adjustment is necessary?? Because Kickers are "better today"???

Well why is that? Kicking field goals hasn't changed the way other facets of the game has, the distances are measured the same, same equipment, same shaped ball, goal posts same location (crossbar raised but that is recent and again disadvantage to current kickers)

In 1978 when Lowery started teams were using dedicated kickers same as today, not position players like Blanda and Cappelletti who "kicked on the side"

Kickers are doing the EXACT SAME THING TODAY THEY DID IN 1978....so if Vinatieri has a higher FG% than Lowery HE IS BETTER AT KICKING THAN LOWERY it really is that simple.

Lowery was better than average FOR HIS TIME doesn't mean if he was born 15 years later he would magically become a 90% career average kicker 9 points above the current mean....

More than likely if Lowery came along today, he would STILL be an 80% kicker which would make him GOOD but not HOF worthy.

Unless you or your buddy Chase Stuart have an alternate theory as to WHY kickers are more accurate today doing the SAME EXACT THING they have done for decades, the only "CORRECT ANSWER" is kickers are JUST BETTER TODAY and no "adjustment" is needed to take into account they weren't as good before.....

Regardless your argument is moot, Vinatieri WILL get into the HOF Lowery most likely WILL NOT and outside of some old timey KC fans no one will care or protest since Vinatieri is widely regarded as one of the best and most clutch kickers of all time
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Old 01-09-2018, 04:29 PM
 
Location: Northwest Peninsula
3,231 posts, read 1,599,002 times
Reputation: 1740
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluedevilz View Post
What changed in field kicking from 1978 to now?

Goal posts were moved to back of end zone in 1974 so no difference there...

Equipment? Foot hits ball....no different in 1978 than 2017

So what exactly is the argument for why era adjustment is necessary?? Because Kickers are "better today"???

Well why is that? Kicking field goals hasn't changed the way other facets of the game has, the distances are measured the same, same equipment, same shaped ball, goal posts same location (crossbar raised but that is recent and again disadvantage to current kickers).
Soccer style kicking over straight on kicking is the major difference. Although the longest field goal for years (63 yards, later beaten by one yard in 2013) was held by Tom Dempsey, but that kick needed an asterisk because Dempsey was missing toes on his kicking foot and had a special flat toed shoe. Which later was banned.
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