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Every year the regulars who post here make weekly picks and every year most of us do as good or better than all the various experts across sports media who make the same picks. It got me to thinking some of us would probably fare pretty well in comparison to the experts picking the entire season before it even begins.
For the purposes of this thread, I think picking the standings, playoff seeds, playoff winners, and Super Bowl winner are the minimum. If you want to get extra credit put expected records next to each team. Just remember, the league final record has to be 256-256. I used excel for my predictions just to make sure the wins and losses balanced out. (Bored at work.)
Something to remember: Those who post here but don't make predictions are inevitably going to post later in the season as some of our predictions prove way off. Others will join in the interim and potentially weigh in on how far off some of us are. It's tough enough to predict NFL winners and losers one week to the next, never mind predicting a complete season through the playoffs. If you put yourself out there now and some tool takes pleasure in your wide miss later in the season don't worry about it. It's just the internet.
My picks are forthcoming. I hope we get all the regulars in on this and I'm confident one of us is going to be pretty close.
Rationale: With all the speculation of tension inside the Patriots organization I expect this team to galvanize like they always do when game time comes. I'm still not a believer in the remaining three teams in the divisions though the Bills may be positioning themselves to take charge once Brady is out of the way.
Rationale: Between the Ravens and Steelers, the Steelers are still the better team. I'm not a believer in the Bengals at all, and while I think the Browns will be significantly improved (technically going from 0 to 4 wins makes them infinitely improved) this year will prove a stepping stone more than a coming out party.
Rationale: The Jaguars are a flashy pick and I hate going lock step with the flashy picks but they have the best defense in the division by a long shot and if Bortles can make incremental improvement to his performance last season the offense is going to be pretty good too. The Texans may have the best offense in the division and some pieces to work with on defense. Nothing about the Titans convinces me they can reprise their playoff performance of last season. As for the Colts, there are so many holes on that defense and even a healthy Andrew Luck can only do so much.
Rationale: Again with the trendy pick (Chargers), but it's a risky pick too. The Chargers are often snake bit injury-wise and fail to reach their potential. But with their defense and Rivers playing with a sense of urgency this team can be a contender. The Broncos still have a top shelf defense and Keenum looks to bring a lot of stability to the QB position, something they lacked the last two seasons. The Chiefs are high on Mahommes but there will be growing pains and they lack the defense to keep them competitive during the "down" weeks. As for the Raiders there is just too much turnover on the staff and roster and not enough on defense to believe Gruden's first year will be anything more than transitory.
Rationale: The Eagles look like they will be contenders for a long time coming. With Wentz returning and a top flight defense it's hard to see any of these other teams unseating them. I am just not a believer in the Cowboys defense and their offense may not be complete at the WR position. The Redskins brought in Alex Smith, whose biggest critique in Kansas City was that he cannot shoulder a team and carry them. They appear improved on defense but I'll believe it when I see it. And I can never figure out the Giants. I seem to miss on them more than any other team, but not inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Rationale: The expectation is Cousins will be an upgrade over Keenum, and that may prove true. What really has me believing in them is their defense. The Packers are instantly back in the running with Aaron Rodgers returning, and I'm a bigger believer in them than the Stafford-led Lions. The Bears are in a tough spot, trying to get a rebuild off the ground and doing so looking up at three better teams. In 2018 it'll show.
Rationale: It's always hard to figure out divisions that the year prior sent 3 teams to the playoffs. History of the league suggests there will be a drop off this year and it's tough to figure out which teams will fall. I am giving the Falcons the benefit of the doubt due to a defense that appears to be coming of age combined with an offense that has the potential to be top 5. The Saints offense is another potential top tier unit but I am less confident in their defense while the Panthers are solid but not great on both units. All three of these teams are significantly better than the Buccaneers.
Rationale: The Rams are candidates to field the league's best offense and if that's not good enough they shored up some areas on defense to make them heavy contenders. The 49ers are a trendy pick (again with the trendy picks) but I like the direction their front office is taking them and Kyle Shanahan looks like a promising coach. I'm not a believer in the Seahawks, there is just not enough remaining on defense to cover what looks like an anemic offense. Despite my prediction for the Cardinals (a decrease in win total from last year's 8-8) I believe they are trending in the right direction. Rosen will emerge as the #1 over Bradford (likely due to injury) and after an up and down rookie year from him, this team may bear watching.
Patriots over Texans: Texans will make a game of it, but the Patriots are always hard to beat at home. Broncos over Steelers: Likely a hard hitting, defensive battle, just the kind of game the Broncos are built for.
Eagles over 49ers: Defending champs vs up and comers. Easy choice. Packers over Falcons: Toss up. Someone has to lose.
Divisional Round Games:
Jaguars over Broncos : Travelling east two weeks in a row takes its toll on the Broncos while the Jaguars are priming for a Super Bowl run from that #1 seed. Chargers over Patriots: Chargers hitting on all cylinders for this one and have the defense to give Brady problems.
Rams over Packers: The better team wins this one running away. Vikings over Eagles: Payback for last year's conference title game.
Conference Championship Games:
Chargers over Jaguars: The Chargers come in and steam roll the heavily favored Jaguars.
Rams over Vikings: Consecutive NFCCG losses for the Vikings. They'll at least be competitive in this one.
Super Bowl:
Rams over Chargers: It'll be close early as both defenses get their licks in, but I think the Chargers run ends as some miscues tilt momentum toward the Rams late in the first half. They never recover and the Rams run away with this one in the second half.
Rationale: With all the speculation of tension inside the Patriots organization I expect this team to galvanize like they always do when game time comes. I'm still not a believer in the remaining three teams in the divisions though the Bills may be positioning themselves to take charge once Brady is out of the way.
Won't argue anything here. I would probably put the Pats at 12 wins, the Bills.. Due to musical QBs down a win.. But, that's haggling.
Rationale: Between the Ravens and Steelers, the Steelers are still the better team. I'm not a believer in the Bengals at all, and while I think the Browns will be significantly improved (technically going from 0 to 4 wins makes them infinitely improved) this year will prove a stepping stone more than a coming out party.
I don't think the Ravens will be that good, I don't think the Browns or Bengals will be that bad.. But, again, I think i'd put the Ravens at an 8-8, so only a 1 win difference there. Bengals I suspect closer to 7-9 and Browns.. I've said before I'm thinking 6 wins is doable this year.
Rationale: The Jaguars are a flashy pick and I hate going lock step with the flashy picks but they have the best defense in the division by a long shot and if Bortles can make incremental improvement to his performance last season the offense is going to be pretty good too. The Texans may have the best offense in the division and some pieces to work with on defense. Nothing about the Titans convinces me they can reprise their playoff performance of last season. As for the Colts, there are so many holes on that defense and even a healthy Andrew Luck can only do so much.
I wouldn't be surprised for the Texans to jump up here. I don't think the Titans will be that bad. This probably will be the most tightly contested division in the AFC.
Rationale: Again with the trendy pick (Chargers), but it's a risky pick too. The Chargers are often snake bit injury-wise and fail to reach their potential. But with their defense and Rivers playing with a sense of urgency this team can be a contender. The Broncos still have a top shelf defense and Keenum looks to bring a lot of stability to the QB position, something they lacked the last two seasons. The Chiefs are high on Mahommes but there will be growing pains and they lack the defense to keep them competitive during the "down" weeks. As for the Raiders there is just too much turnover on the staff and roster and not enough on defense to believe Gruden's first year will be anything more than transitory.
I don't see the Broncos being that good.. Flop them and the Raiders. I really only see 5 to 6 wins for the Broncos. Raiders towards a 9-7 record, perhaps 10-6.. Chargers not that good.. 9-7 for them.
Rationale: The Eagles look like they will be contenders for a long time coming. With Wentz returning and a top flight defense it's hard to see any of these other teams unseating them. I am just not a believer in the Cowboys defense and their offense may not be complete at the WR position. The Redskins brought in Alex Smith, whose biggest critique in Kansas City was that he cannot shoulder a team and carry them. They appear improved on defense but I'll believe it when I see it. And I can never figure out the Giants. I seem to miss on them more than any other team, but not inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Giants.. Down. 5-11.. Redskins.. 6-10 is what I'm thinking now.. No real arguments otherwise.
Rationale: The expectation is Cousins will be an upgrade over Keenum, and that may prove true. What really has me believing in them is their defense. The Packers are instantly back in the running with Aaron Rodgers returning, and I'm a bigger believer in them than the Stafford-led Lions. The Bears are in a tough spot, trying to get a rebuild off the ground and doing so looking up at three better teams. In 2018 it'll show.
Rationale: It's always hard to figure out divisions that the year prior sent 3 teams to the playoffs. History of the league suggests there will be a drop off this year and it's tough to figure out which teams will fall. I am giving the Falcons the benefit of the doubt due to a defense that appears to be coming of age combined with an offense that has the potential to be top 5. The Saints offense is another potential top tier unit but I am less confident in their defense while the Panthers are solid but not great on both units. All three of these teams are significantly better than the Buccaneers.
Panthers are due for a bounceback year. I think they wind up with 10-11 wins. I don't think the Bucs are that bad.. 4-12.. Still bad.
Rationale: The Rams are candidates to field the league's best offense and if that's not good enough they shored up some areas on defense to make them heavy contenders. The 49ers are a trendy pick (again with the trendy picks) but I like the direction their front office is taking them and Kyle Shanahan looks like a promising coach. I'm not a believer in the Seahawks, there is just not enough remaining on defense to cover what looks like an anemic offense. Despite my prediction for the Cardinals (a decrease in win total from last year's 8-8) I believe they are trending in the right direction. Rosen will emerge as the #1 over Bradford (likely due to injury) and after an up and down rookie year from him, this team may bear watching.
Don't think the Rams go that high.. 49ers a win or so less. Cardinals a few less wins
The Steelers are consistently good, there is absolutely no reason to assume anything different this season. I do think the Ravens improve, I think the Bengals continue to slide, and I wouldn't doubt if the Browns actually do win more than 4 games this year.
AFC South:
Texans: 11-5
Jaguars: 10-6
Colts: 9-7
Titans: 8-8
No way the Jags repeat the season they had last year. I don't have that much faith in Blake Bortles. I do have that much faith in the Texans' QB, and I think the Texans are going to be scary good this year.
I know far too well that when Andy Reid makes a QB change, there's a reason why he does. I love Alex Smith and think he'll help my 'skins, but I trust Andy Reid sees something in his second year QB that will catapult the Chiefs to the top of the AFC West. I really think I'm being generous to the Chargers and Broncos though. I'm probably underestimating the Raiders as well, but Gruden hasn't coached in a very long time, so I think 8-8 in his first year back is not a bad assessment.
The Eagles are Super Bowl champs and until they play this season, there is no reason to believe they can't at least repeat as NFC East champs. I do think Smith will get my 'skins to 10 wins, because I think Jay Gruden's job relies on getting his team to 10 wins and a hopeful playoff berth and one playoff win. I think the Giants greatly improve because of their first round running back, but I think the Cowboys will be held back because of their defense and they will truly miss Jason Witten.
NFC North:
Vikings: 12-4
Packers: 11-5
Lions: 9-7
Bears: 7-9
I have to admit. I'm a bit jaded at Cousins leaving the 'skins for the Vikings, but I do think he joins a great team, and I can easily see the Vikes have 12 wins this year. I also think the Packers will be right behind them with 11 wins. I think the Bears continue to improve, and I think the Lions will continue to underachieve.
I think Cam Newton has something to prove. 12 wins might be a little too optimistic, but I believe they are much better than merely a .500 ball club. I think the Falcons and Saints are right there with them. It's a close conference and either the three could end up on top. I don't think the Bucs are close at all.
I can't agree with others who think the Rams are going to win 13 games. Shawn McVay is a solid coach, and I miss him in Washington, but 13 wins? I don't know about that. I think this is going to be one of the closest contested divisions in the entire NFL, with either the Rams, 49ers, and even the Seahawks having a good shot at winning the division. We still haven't seen Jimmy G play an entire season, so I don't think he's better than 10 wins just yet. This will be an interesting division to watch. I think the Cards are on the way down.
YES YES The cat already started these on the website and after a week, the predictions are already outdated.
I need one more week to get my act together
But since you know football and you know us all too well
QUOTE
Something to remember: Those who post here but don't make predictions are inevitably going to post later in the season as some of our predictions prove way off. Others will join in the interim and potentially weigh in on how far off some of us are. It's tough enough to predict NFL winners and losers one week to the next, never mind predicting a complete season through the playoffs. If you put yourself out there now and some tool takes pleasure in your wide miss later in the season don't worry about it. It's just the internet.
I want to add that no one seems to be able to predict a professional game with so many variables.
I went back and looked at the 2017 season picks by the sports writers across the board. Most had the Buccaneers winning the division. FEW had the Eagles. And practically no one had the Jaguars. Even the paid sportswriters tend to mess things up. Because the game has so many variables that those few who have never played it can understand. Like the impact of bad coaching. Or the mess one gets when the owner, GM and coach are not on the same page. Or do not have a long term plan, even one for the season.
SO I will get my picks in as soon as I can. In the meantime, Some of the sportswriters are saying that the Chargers will win because they finished strong. That means nothing. I have watched enough football to know that how a team finishes will be no indication of whether or not everything will click into place the next time around. And that is another variable....can the teams with the talent on paper(Saints, Rams Packers) actually get it together enough to make wins on the field week in and week out?
one thing I can guarantee: We will have fun picking the games and the outcomes !
SO I will get my picks in as soon as I can. In the meantime, Some of the sportswriters are saying that the Chargers will win because they finished strong. That means nothing. I have watched enough football to know that how a team finishes will be no indication of whether or not everything will click into place the next time around. And that is another variable....can the teams with the talent on paper(Saints, Rams Packers) actually get it together enough to make wins on the field week in and week out?
Completely agree. That same concept is why a lot of people are high on the 49ers right now too. I do think the 49ers are trending in the right direction, obviously since I picked them to flip their record. But it has a lot more to do with the front office direction and structure in place than the finish from last season.
As for the Chargers, it's hard to argue against that defense. They were vicious getting after the QB and stingy in the secondary. Most importantly they were very difficult to score on. The biggest weakness was against the run, where they were pretty much 30th-32nd in various run defense categories. If they shore that up and bring that run defense to mid-pack, that unit is going to be elite. They play opposite Phil Rivers, who has the ability to light up even good defenses. Their offense was a middling unit last year but a combination of circumstances probably contributed to that (new coaching staff, injuries, etc). In the second year in this system, don't be surprised if that unit is logging 27-28+ points any given week.
This is hard for me as a Broncos fan because I loathe the Chargers. I just think they look like the class of the division at this point. If the Chiefs can build a defense in the next couple of seasons while they still have this arsenal on offense (and assuming Mahommes develops) they may be pretty tough in the next few years too.
Patriots over Texans: Texans will make a game of it, but the Patriots are always hard to beat at home. Broncos over Steelers: Likely a hard hitting, defensive battle, just the kind of game the Broncos are built for.
Eagles over 49ers: Defending champs vs up and comers. Easy choice. Packers over Falcons: Toss up. Someone has to lose.
Divisional Round Games:
Jaguars over Broncos : Travelling east two weeks in a row takes its toll on the Broncos while the Jaguars are priming for a Super Bowl run from that #1 seed. Chargers over Patriots: Chargers hitting on all cylinders for this one and have the defense to give Brady problems.
Rams over Packers: The better team wins this one running away. Vikings over Eagles: Payback for last year's conference title game.
Conference Championship Games:
Chargers over Jaguars: The Chargers come in and steam roll the heavily favored Jaguars.
Rams over Vikings: Consecutive NFCCG losses for the Vikings. They'll at least be competitive in this one.
Super Bowl:
Rams over Chargers: It'll be close early as both defenses get their licks in, but I think the Chargers run ends as some miscues tilt momentum toward the Rams late in the first half. They never recover and the Rams run away with this one in the second half.
I like your all LA Super Bowl prediction!! Especially with the Rams winning it all!!
I like your all LA Super Bowl prediction!! Especially with the Rams winning it all!!
The NFL would LOVE an all-L.A. Super Bowl. If this game happens you can expect the "NFL is rigged" crowd to come out in force!
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: Travelling east two weeks in a row takes its toll on the Broncos while the Jaguars are priming for a Super Bowl run from that #1 seed.
