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I watched the coach for the Eagles go for 2 after scoring a TD, when he was down by 14 (Vikings game a couple of weeks ago). On Saturday night, the Colorado coach did the same vs USC. I scratched my head and wondered if these guys had ever taken a math class, but I apparently was the one who had no idea....
I watched the coach for the Eagles go for 2 after scoring a TD, when he was down by 14 (Vikings game a couple of weeks ago). On Saturday night, the Colorado coach did the same vs USC. I scratched my head and wondered if these guys had ever taken a math class, but I apparently was the one who had no idea....
Good post! Another thing that doesn't talked about often, but I love to bring up is if you are up 1 and score a touchdown, inside of 5 minutes, why not go for 2?? Getting the touchdown brings you to up 7, so even if you miss the 2 point conversion you can't lose on the ensuing drive, unless the opposing coach goes for 2, and at best case scenario you put yourself up 2 possessions. I've seen way to many games the last couple of seasons where the team in that scenario scores a touchdown, kicks the extra point, the opponent marches down the field and ties the game with a 2 point conversion and than wins in overtime/at end of regulation. I wonder how many of those losses would've been wins if the coach doesn't get conservative and thinks outside the box??
I can't wait until some year in week 17 where team X is playing team Y, team X is in the playoffs if they win, and eliminated if they lose. Team X is up 1 with the ball at their own 40 yard line at the 2 minute warning and team Y has all 3 timeouts, Team X running back breaks 6 tackles and scores a 60 yard touchdown. The coach can go for the jugular after seeing how much team Y is demoralized, but plays conservative kicks the extra point. Team Y marches down the field, scores a TD, converts the 2 point conversion, wins the coin toss, gets the ball first, marches down the field for another touchdown to end the game. Everyone would talk about the 2 TD drives, but the big play would be NOT going for 2 which would have pretty much put the game and playoff bid on ice.
I recall when they first had the 2-point rule, and these coaches were incredibly naive. They did nothing but use a chart, like John Madden did as well when giving his so-called "analysis" from the broadcast booth. Early 2nd quarter, 14-3 game. The trailing team scores a TD to make it 14-9. Chart tells them to go for 2, so you go for 2. No foresight what so ever and almost inevitably it seemed, you wound up not converting and chasing points the rest of the game, often times losing because of not kicking the nearly automatic extra point (closer distance back then), or not being in position to kick a field goal and having to go for it on 4th down to catch up at the end of games.
To this day I find it incredibly stupid as well to be down 15, score a TD late to get within 9, and not go for two right away to at least know there and then how many possessions you need to try and catch up. In the case of being down 14, I never considered what is brought up in the article. It is an interesting breakdown and generally quantifies exactly why it is the right move. I would have liked to have seen the metrics used and see how they shifted as well before the extra point was moved further back. That would certainly change the probabilities, so I wouldn't necessarily think coaches were wrong to go for one before the last five years or so. I also think variables such as weather and who your quarterback is versus the opposing quarterback have to play a role in a coach's decision. With the OT rules as they are, a team won't get to possess the football if the opposition can score a TD on its first drive, or if they do first possess it and fail to score a TD, the game continues with minimal time remaining generally thanks to the shortened 10-minute overtimes: in other words, a must situation for the offense seems to work much more in the favor when you have Brees, Rodgers, or Brady on your team.
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