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Old 01-15-2019, 11:01 AM
 
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I think you bring up a fair comparison of Rivers vs. Ryan. And yeah Rivers vs. Brees never made sense. The only other fair comparison is Rivers vs. Eli. Eli has always played poorly or just above average in the regular season but does have post season success. But unlike say Flacco, Eli was not necessarily the reason why the Giants won in the postseason. But that is not to say Eli didn't play well or was a detriment. Eli always had a lot of help with a team that was hitting on all cylinders in all phases of the game on the Giant super bowl runs.

History will probably look back at both Rivers and Ryan as guys with great stats but maybe not necessarily HOF worthy. But for both, the overall stats might be too great to keep either out of the HOF.
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Old 01-15-2019, 09:44 PM
 
Location: Virginia Beach
4,211 posts, read 2,830,037 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill the Butcher View Post
I think you bring up a fair comparison of Rivers vs. Ryan. And yeah Rivers vs. Brees never made sense. The only other fair comparison is Rivers vs. Eli. Eli has always played poorly or just above average in the regular season but does have post season success. But unlike say Flacco, Eli was not necessarily the reason why the Giants won in the postseason. But that is not to say Eli didn't play well or was a detriment. Eli always had a lot of help with a team that was hitting on all cylinders in all phases of the game on the Giant super bowl runs.

History will probably look back at both Rivers and Ryan as guys with great stats but maybe not necessarily HOF worthy. But for both, the overall stats might be too great to keep either out of the HOF.
So I've gone back and analyzed the QB play between Rivers and Ryan, going back to Rivers' first year as a starter (2005)....

Considering all factors, where their teams ended up, and how they played relative to their peers, Rivers has had five seasons in which he was legitimately a Top 5 quarterback: 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2018. Ryan has had three seasons as a Top 5 quarterback: 2012, 2016, 2018. The only year Rivers was truly arguable as the best QB in the game was 2008; for Ryan, 2016...

Rivers' best season was actually 2013, which was Year 10 for him, and were it not for Manning's insane season that year, Rivers would be more lauded for his play in that particular season. Ryan's best season was 2016, which was Year 9 for him---->if that was both of them at their peak, Matt Ryan at his best seems to be noticeably better than Philip Rivers at his best....

Finally I looked at the results of their best seasons. In Rivers' five Top 5 years, he won his division only twice, with a 3-4 playoff record and never advanced beyond the Divisional round. So again, in Rivers best individual years, he couldn't take his team deep in the postseason, had a losing playoff record, and a respectable 51-29 record (.638). At his best, he is essentially a 10-win QB, but more often than not can't win his division and he can't take his team deep in the playoffs...

In Ryan's three Top 5 seasons, he has a 31-17 record (.646), a 3-2 playoff record, made two conference title games and a Super Bowl, and won two division titles. From the results, even if marginally, Ryan at his best goes further and is the catalyst of greater team success than Rivers...

In Ryan's best seasons, during his postseason runs, he completed 70.9% of his passes and has a 120.3 passer rating. In Rivers' best seasons, during those playoffs, he completed 61.2% of his passes with an 89.5 passer rating. Interestingly, in Rivers five best years, he had a passer rating over 101, yet his playoff play declines sharply, though in those years he is better than his career playoff averages. Ryan's postseason play elevates in his Top 5 years, by contrast...

I think it's just time to consider that we have slightly overrated Rivers. He has been a very good QB for a long time, has been top shelf for a third of his career, but I just can't ignore how inconsistent he becomes in the postseason, and how his best seasons don't translate to deep playoff runs...
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Old 01-21-2019, 11:36 AM
 
Location: Virginia Beach
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I'm a huge Drew Brees fan, and always will be, but I can be objective. His play down the stretch and this postseason will keep him behind Manning. Brees is now 1-2 (.333) in the NFC Championship Game. Compared to his peers of the last two decades who have also been to at least conference title games:

•Warner was 3-0 (1.000) in the NFC Championship Game...
•Manning was 4-1 (.800) in the AFC Championship Game...
•Brady is 9-4 (.692) in the AFC Championship Game...
•Ben is 3-2 (.600) in the AFC Championship Game...
•Favre was 2-3 (.400) in the NFC Championship Game...
•Rodgers is also 1-2 (.333) in the NFC Championship Game...

He's a legend, but he's tied for the last win percentage on Championship Sunday amongst the other great QBs of the last two decades. These things matter when we discuss legacy...

I still think his durability, longevity, and cumulative totals keep him ahead of Rodgers at the moment. But his play down the stretch keep him behind Manning, and probably forever, unless he can somehow win at least one more ring...
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Old 01-21-2019, 11:54 AM
 
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I agree. Brees is well behind Petyon who is behind Brady.

Peyton had to contend with the Patriots and Brady and Belicheck. Even Big Ben and the Steelers and the Ravens had a number of good years in the conference. On the other hand, the NFC has mostly been wide open year to year. I think that is even more of a problem for guys like Brees and Rodgers who have each failed to make more than one appearance in the big game.

Peyton is 14-13 in the playoffs. Brees is 8-7. The winning percentages between the two is meaningless. The telling stat is that Peyton was consistently good enough to get his team into the playoffs more more consistently. Peyton took his team to the playoffs 15 times out of 18 opportunities. Brees only 8 times out of 18 opportunities.
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Old 01-21-2019, 03:16 PM
 
Location: Virginia Beach
4,211 posts, read 2,830,037 times
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Originally Posted by Bill the Butcher View Post
I agree. Brees is well behind Petyon who is behind Brady.

Peyton had to contend with the Patriots and Brady and Belicheck. Even Big Ben and the Steelers and the Ravens had a number of good years in the conference. On the other hand, the NFC has mostly been wide open year to year. I think that is even more of a problem for guys like Brees and Rodgers who have each failed to make more than one appearance in the big game.

Peyton is 14-13 in the playoffs. Brees is 8-7. The winning percentages between the two is meaningless. The telling stat is that Peyton was consistently good enough to get his team into the playoffs more more consistently. Peyton took his team to the playoffs 15 times out of 18 opportunities. Brees only 8 times out of 18 opportunities.
These are some great points...

The talent level Brees and Rodgers bring to the table should have resulted in more Super Bowl appearances, especially given the fact that the NFC hasn't been dominated by three franchises (Patriots, Steelers, Colts) for 20 years. Those guys in the AFC spent years trying to overcome each other...

Brees has a career .589 win% with 6 division titles and as you said, 8 playoff berths. Rodgers has a career .633 win% with 5 division titles and 8 playoff berths...

Yet on the other side:

Brady--.775 win%, 16 division titles, 16 playoff berths
Manning--.702 win%, 16 division titles, 15 playoff berths
Ben--.673 win%, 7 division titles, 10 playoff berths

Brees has the lowest win percentage, the second fewest division titles, and tied for the fewest playoff trips amongst the rest of the Top 5 of the last 20 years. I've been a fan of his game for a long time, but he doesn't compare well at the top. A step up above Rivers and guys of his stature, but a step (or several) behind Brady and Manning...
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