Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The NFL team/individual stats just came out in today's paper. . Regarding total defense, the Lions rank 6th in the NFC, giving up 319.3 yards a game. The Panthers are 11th, giving up 366.2 yards a game. The Lions have given up 150 points, the Panthers have given up 144 points. BUT---------
Getting this back to the BEARS team thread!
The Bears are 11th in the NFC in total offense with 337.8 yards and 4th in total defense with 299.3 yards given up.
But here is the stat that overrides all other stats--points allowed. Chicago has given up 78 points, tops in the NFL. San Francisco is 2nd with 100 points. Fewest points allowed-that's the stat that matters!
My only concern is that style hasn't won in the NFL for a long time. I agree its classic bears ball, but I think they will need their offense to come up big in some games.
And I don't think you can write off how the defense impacts the scoring average. I'm @ work and too busy to do the math, but I'll adjust their ppg w/out D scores later today and we'll put my hypothesis to the test.
Well, it actually has won super bowls before (see quote below from freakanomics). The Ravens did it with a worse qb in Dilfer. The Steelers and Packers also had great defenses. Of course you can't win the superbowl without a decent offense but it doesn't have to be better than your defense.
Who is writing off the defensive scores? All I said is that you can't complain much when you are averaging about 27 points a game EVEN if a lot of those points come from the defense. Would you like Cutler to be like Rogers and throw the ball down field more when they are leading a game handily? Even though the Bears have an excellent running game and can wear the other team down and the Packers have a broken Benson. Cutler aint Rogers and the Bears aint the Packers, which is a good thing. I think a lot of you would be asking for the heads of Lovie and Cutler (and Tice too) if they were being risky and reckless with the ball when they are leading. Can you imagine if Cutler was turning the ball over when they had a lead? They may be asking for more than his head. "Why is he throwing picks when we have an awesome D and run game?" I can hear it now.
Also, you are assuming that if you take away the defensive scores that the offense would not have scored after the opposition punted instead. Who knows? I think what would be interesting to see is how well the offense plays when they are down. Can they mount a comeback and win? That would be a big test but I'm fine if thing keep up the way they are. I think the offense has the ability to bring them from behind and win but that's not how the team was designed.
From Freakanomics:
We further found that among the 45 NFL Super Bowls, the better defensive team — measured by points allowed that season— has won 29 times. The better offensive team won 25 times. (Note that adds up to 53, which means that some teams are the better offensive and defensive team in the Super Bowl. Nineteen Super Bowls have featured a team superior on both sides of the ball. Those teams have won 14 of those games.) It’s a slight edge for defense, but it’s a pretty close call and not different from random chance. The favorite statistic of the “defense wins championships” proponents is that the top-ranked defense during the regular season has won 15 Super Bowls, whereas the top-ranked offense has won only 8. Although this would seem to confer an advantage to defense, these two numbers are not statistically different. And, remember, since the top-three defenses have won no more than the top-three offensive teams, it also means that offensive teams ranked 2 and 3 have won more Super Bowls than the second- and third-best defensive teams, though again, these differences are not statistically significant.
But here is the stat that overrides all other stats--points allowed. Chicago has given up 78 points, tops in the NFL. San Francisco is 2nd with 100 points. Fewest points allowed-that's the stat that matters!
Wrong, wrong, wrong...it is NOT the only stat or most important stat....that is deceiving
Jeez, you Bears fans have it all wrong.
How many points did the New York Football Giants give up last year out of 32 teams...? They were 25th...because their offense could put up points...just like the 2009 New Orleans Saints...they were ranked 20th in points given up.
If the Offense sucks, then points given up matters....end of story.
Well, it actually has won super bowls before (see quote below from freakanomics). The Ravens did it with a worse qb in Dilfer. The Steelers and Packers also had great defenses. Of course you can't win the superbowl without a decent offense but it doesn't have to be better than your defense.
Who is writing off the defensive scores? All I said is that you can't complain much when you are averaging about 27 points a game EVEN if a lot of those points come from the defense. Would you like Cutler to be like Rogers and throw the ball down field more when they are leading a game handily? Even though the Bears have an excellent running game and can wear the other team down and the Packers have a broken Benson. Cutler aint Rogers and the Bears aint the Packers, which is a good thing. I think a lot of you would be asking for the heads of Lovie and Cutler (and Tice too) if they were being risky and reckless with the ball when they are leading. Can you imagine if Cutler was turning the ball over when they had a lead? They may be asking for more than his head. "Why is he throwing picks when we have an awesome D and run game?" I can hear it now.
Also, you are assuming that if you take away the defensive scores that the offense would not have scored after the opposition punted instead. Who knows? I think what would be interesting to see is how well the offense plays when they are down. Can they mount a comeback and win? That would be a big test but I'm fine if thing keep up the way they are. I think the offense has the ability to bring them from behind and win but that's not how the team was designed.
From Freakanomics:
We further found that among the 45 NFL Super Bowls, the better defensive team — measured by points allowed that season— has won 29 times. The better offensive team won 25 times. (Note that adds up to 53, which means that some teams are the better offensive and defensive team in the Super Bowl. Nineteen Super Bowls have featured a team superior on both sides of the ball. Those teams have won 14 of those games.) It’s a slight edge for defense, but it’s a pretty close call and not different from random chance. The favorite statistic of the “defense wins championships” proponents is that the top-ranked defense during the regular season has won 15 Super Bowls, whereas the top-ranked offense has won only 8. Although this would seem to confer an advantage to defense, these two numbers are not statistically different. And, remember, since the top-three defenses have won no more than the top-three offensive teams, it also means that offensive teams ranked 2 and 3 have won more Super Bowls than the second- and third-best defensive teams, though again, these differences are not statistically significant.
Thumbs up for the freakanomics reference. I enjoy that book, and I enjoy writers like Gladwell that have built on some of that stuff and his books are great reads...
By no means am I brushing off defense, however I think the Ravens are very different than the Packers and Steeler teams you referenced. They are not in the same group imo. Tampa, the year they won would have fit better with the Ravens, but their offense showed up big in the SB that year.
True you cannot assume the offense would not have scored, but for the purpose of analysis I would say there is less margin of error to assume they would not? as oppose to assuming they would put up 7? Maybe assigning a value of 2-3 points to those instead of pick 6s would be a good starting point.
Also using a sample of all the SBs doesn't go too far with me as I think (as most do) that the game has evolved greatly in the last 10-15 years.
Either way, good post and I don't disagree with all of it, but still contend that this offense needs to get better.
Honestly, have you watched any Panther games or are you going by record??
The first method you describe is biased and the latter wouldn't make any sense.
Carolina's last two opponents (Dallas and Seattle) are in the bottom of the NFC in pts per game so I think you've mistaken the ineptness of the opposition for defensive quality on Carolina's part. Both of those teams pretty much reached their season ppg average against Carolina.
Prior to that they got lit up for 31ppg for 3 weeks by teams with good offenses.
The 16-10 loss at Tampa in week 1 is the only data point that indicates their defense is anything more than mediocre.
The panthers have an erratic offense and mediocre defense. Just my opinion.
Wrong, wrong, wrong...it is NOT the only stat or most important stat....that is deceiving
Jeez, you Bears fans have it all wrong.
How many points did the New York Football Giants give up last year out of 32 teams...? They were 25th...because their offense could put up points...just like the 2009 New Orleans Saints...they were ranked 20th in points given up.
If the Offense sucks, then points given up matters....end of story.
He was talking about it's importance with regards to defensive rankings, not using points given up as the sole indicator of how good a team is overall.
Wrong, wrong, wrong...it is NOT the only stat or most important stat....that is deceiving
Jeez, you Bears fans have it all wrong.
How many points did the New York Football Giants give up last year out of 32 teams...? They were 25th...because their offense could put up points...just like the 2009 New Orleans Saints...they were ranked 20th in points given up.
If the Offense sucks, then points given up matters....end of story.
Double H is not a Bears fan, though he is welcome to jump on the bandwagon anytime
The first method you describe is biased and the latter wouldn't make any sense.
Carolina's last two opponents (Dallas and Seattle) are in the bottom of the NFC in pts per game so I think you've mistaken the ineptness of the opposition for defensive quality on Carolina's part. Both of those teams pretty much reached their season ppg average against Carolina.
Prior to that they got lit up for 31ppg for 3 weeks by teams with good offenses.
The 16-10 loss at Tampa in week 1 is the only data point that indicates their defense is anything more than mediocre.
The panthers have an erratic offense and mediocre defense. Just my opinion.
Bears 24-10.
You are entitled to your opinion, however you said the Lions D is much better than the Panthers D. There is no supporting evidence for that.
We will agree to disagree.
Also, I'm not saying the Panthers will win, heck I'm not a Panther fan...I just live in Charlotte and watch all their games. If you are trying to validate Chicago as being a good team or something comparing the two teams, I think Chicago is a good team...great team or top 5 team? No. I wouldn't trust Cutler if my life depended on it so that's what will hold back this team from being Elite.
You are entitled to your opinion, however you said the Lions D is much better than the Panthers D. There is no supporting evidence for that.
We will agree to disagree.
Also, I'm not saying the Panthers will win, heck I'm not a Panther fan...I just live in Charlotte and watch all their games. If you are trying to validate Chicago as being a good team or something comparing the two teams, I think Chicago is a good team...great team or top 5 team? No. I wouldn't trust Cutler if my life depended on it so that's what will hold back this team from being Elite.
Fair enough.
I agree that Chicago is not currently a "top 5" team which generally means you'd expect to see them in the NFC championship game.
They will need the offense to develop further if they want to make some waves in the playoffs.
In Cutlers defense, this is the first year he's had decent receivers and his O-line has been shaky since he got here.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
