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These houses won't go section 8. They are going to maximize the return for their investors, and Section 8 people will not qualify for the high rents that will be required. This is not affordable housing. I built affordable housing, work force housing, luxury housing, and extreme wealth buildings for over 30 years.
But, you are right - there are surely other minuses. I concur with you on that point. Maybe what your saying is that other multifamily apartment projects that were previously affordable may be pushed down a notch and become section 8, but I think that is way to long a string of circumstances that would cause that.
Section 8 renters is not their target market - trust me on that!
I'm very sure it's not their target. I'm playing the devils advocate in a "much less demand than we expected" scenario. What are the options in a situation such as that? I saw it happen with moderately upscale condos in the past. I also saw an upscale single home community go to predominately rental and then onto group housing.
"This is a very good thing for all of South West Florida!!!!!"
This would be good how? Maybe for a few folks who are marginally underwater. Otherwise, it's a manipulated market. And that's unfortunate for people who might not have a particularly high paying job (not many of those in Southwest Florida, that I know of), but wouldn't mind owning a safe, modest little home in which to raise a family.
The housing bubble was good to us, though. Sold our home at the top for a price I don't think it'll ever see again in my lifetime. Been renting happily ever since. No worries about maintenance, homeowner's insurance, and we're footloose and fancy-free. Maybe Blackstone is on to something. Whatever the case, I'm just glad we can explore our options and consider other places to live if we want.
We saw some bizarre behavior at the top of the bubble, though. A good friend of ours sold his house over on the other side of the state for top dollar. And then doubled down and bought a house at the top of the market in the Tampa Bay area. Last I knew, his house was in foreclosure. Although he has been living there mortgage-free for a while. Credit is trashed, though. The bubble did a lot of people in.
Hey, but real estate only goes up! Buy now or be priced out 4-evah!
We saw some bizarre behavior at the top of the bubble, though. A good friend of ours sold his house over on the other side of the state for top dollar. And then doubled down and bought a house at the top of the market in the Tampa Bay area. Last I knew, his house was in foreclosure. Although he has been living there mortgage-free for a while. Credit is trashed, though. The bubble did a lot of people in.
Hey, but real estate only goes up! Buy now or be priced out 4-evah!
You sound like we are on top of the bubble, and always will be. . . . I have some questions for you - maybe you can help me more.
But, In case you haven't noticed we have been on the bottom after the bubble burst - for about 4-5 years now.
Can you give an example of when it may be a good time to buy?
What conditions do you need to see before you think housing will be a good investment?
Do you think the stock market is a better investment? And, what is the best thing to invest in?
Where do you put all your money so that it gains value?
Do you think the best time to buy is at the bottom of the bubble, or after it goes all the way back up? When do you think we'll see an upturn in the housing market? Do you think the housing market is improving now? And, if not what (evidence / triggers) do we need to see as indicators to identify when that is?
Do you think spending money on rent, where you gain no equity or profit is always the best decision?
Maybe you can enlighten some of the posters here. That's what the forum is for. Tell us what you think, We all know people lost money before the bubble burst, and when they repurchased at the Top of the Bubble. We are all concerned and frustrated about that - I've written hundreds of posts venting my frustration with that - I agree with you on that!!
I'm trying to initiate a conversation with you so I can learn more - not start anything - OK
Big House, first of all, thank you for your reasoned and thoughtful reply to my rather emotional and sarcastic posts on housing. Since this thread is supposed to be specific to issues affecting the Punta Gorda-Port Charlotte area, this is probably not an appropriate place for me to answer all your questions.
But I can tell you that no matter where I live, my purchase (or not) of a home is primarily for shelter reasons, not as an investment. We sold our place in the fall of 2005 because we were offered crazy money for it, so we had to do it. I'm glad we did, because I would not want to be living there now. The surrounding neighborhood really got hit by the ugly stick in the housing bust. However, in judging when to pull the trigger again as far as buying, I've pretty much used the chart in the link as my guide. I first saw it in 2006, and it depressed me, because I couldn't believe I'd have to wait 8 years for things to bottom out. But, somehow I've managed to survive and it may well be that I'll purchase again in 2014.
We are not sure we will remain in Florida, so it would be foolish to buy at this point. Our main concern about purchasing a home at this time is stability of areas, and I can tell you the Tampa Bay area (where we currently live) is still very much in flux in certain neighborhoods. The most important thing to a stable housing recovery anywhere is a stable job market and economic climate. At this point, we have neither.
Hedge funds and private equity groups are sitting on lots of cash and looking for a return on their investment. It's very telling that instead of putting their money into the stock market or some particular industry, they have chosen to put it in housing. Does that mean it's the best "investment"? No. Probably just the least worst. And they are in a position to buy real estate at prices that most of us could never negotiate, at least not at this time. But maybe in 2014....
I'm in a line of work that brings me into contact with homeowners and would-be homeowners every day. Lots of misery still. Some people have been able to get some good deals here and there, but most are frustrated with the manipulated market.
Nice post Kmarc. I don't fully agree with you but appreciate your point of view rather than just bashing others opinions. I hope you don't mind my opinion...
The chart in your link is pretty accurate for most of the country. It is a typical head and shoulders pattern often found in equities. I am a day trader so I know it all too well. That chart however is currently on the right shoulder and has a decision to make. Normally on a very long term chart like that the right shoulder plateaus, more or less, unless said equity is headed to zero, which may be the case in many parts of the country. Other times it will shoot right back up, but the right shoulder can be very painful.
I am not ruling out the painful route as I believe that is where my NJ properties are headed. The difference is up there there are different circumstances such as a increasing property tax that almost make home-ownership a lose-lose situation. I can barely rent them for what I have to pay the local government in taxes. Up there, I myself would rent right now and I believe property values will near zero in the next decade with our current government.
Down here it is a different story. The head and shoulders pattern has already been broken as far as home prices. The price of rentals has already surpassed a relatively large multiple of mortgage plus tax prices, and should continue due to the amount of credit-less potential renters/buyers in the area, or those that want to move to the area...not to mention seasonal rentals.
I am a firm believer in rental prices dictating the home prices. Demand is demand, and when the supply is lower than the demand you know what happens. This is not the North East, and I don't expect those markets to mirror each other from here on out. The chart you linked to above will be true for a large part of the country, but don't kid yourself thinking it will be everywhere...that is simply impossible. Some lose while others gain. I am just hoping my due diligence doesn't fail me in regards to the area I chose to buy properties. I doubt it
Hedge funds and private equity groups are sitting on lots of cash and looking for a return on their investment. It's very telling that instead of putting their money into the stock market or some particular industry, they have chosen to put it in housing. Does that mean it's the best "investment"? No. Probably just the least worst. And they are in a position to buy real estate at prices that most of us could never negotiate, at least not at this time. But maybe in 2014....
I'm in a line of work that brings me into contact with homeowners and would-be homeowners every day. Lots of misery still.
It is very telling they, we, have put money into RE instead of equities. Equities are near the top, RE near the bottom. Buy low, sell high. There is not much right now besides RE that you can buy near the low. The only ones saying "now is not the time to buy" are the ones not in a position to do so, or not looking in the right area. Like equities, investors pick up the pieces of the hardest hit sectors (or areas) first. Aside from maybe Las Vegas you are looking at that sector right here.
Don't assume "they" are in a position to buy what you can not. You can. Sure, many "investors" were wiped out in the last crash, but not the smart ones like yourself, if you got out in 2005 like you said. The majority that "can't" are the reason the prices are still low enough for those that can. I can't count how many foreigners bought recently (Canadians etc..), they were unaffected by our bubble burst and know a good deal when they see it.
After the last election I'm not ruling out a double dip...I am actually hoping for it so I can invest more in RE right here.
Thanks, Harbor Rat. I am not as familiar with the Port Charlotte-Punta Gorda area as I am with the southern/eastern part of Tampa Bay, but what, other than an entity such as Blackstone, would drive prices in that area? I'm not saying it isn't a lovely area. But is there some job magnet I'm not aware of? Tourism, retirement. Jobs provided by those industries (other than some medical jobs) just don't pay that well, that's the reality. So who is going to pay higher rent, or indeed a higher mortgage? Over on the housingbubbleblog, we've often spoken of fundamentals, and joked that rather than being driven by fundamentals, manipulated markets are driven by "funny mentals". A large player such as Blackstone hoovering up properties in an area such as Port Charlotte-Punta Gorda is an example of "funny mentals", and yes, as we saw with the housing bubble, "funny mentals" can drive prices. I'm sure they're buying those properties for a song. I did read that they took a big Pasadena on the Tampa Bay area.
I am not a real estate investor by any means, just someone looking to eventually buy a house at a halfway decent price to live in. Being something of a contrarian, when people start in with the heavy breathing routine about ANY investment, I'm running in the exact opposite direction.
However, if by some crazy chance I were to wake up tomorrow morning and get the urge to buy some houses for investment, I would buy in the Greenville, South Carolina area, where there are jobs and properties are relatively cheap. And I'd already know, going in, that I'd have to rent out those houses for a while before I saw any major appreciation on them, so it would be primarily for cash flow. At least it'd be in an area where I'd have a reasonable expectation of people being stably employed, raising families, etc.
Blackstone may have some long term plans for the area that I'm not aware of. However, when it comes to hedge funds and private equity, sometimes they use a bucket of cash to buy a box of stupid. My take is that they don't know where in Hades to put their money right now, and I guess Port Charlotte-Punta Gorda's as good a place as any.
Now, if indeed prices are rising in the area and anyone out there is anxious to sell their home, do it now. NOW! And don't get cute about the price, if you've got a halfway decent offer on the table, go for it. You've got a brief window of opportunity here, and I suggest you take it.
"I can't count how many foreigners bought recently (Canadians etc..),"
Yep. Heard it before. Matrix Re-Loaded. (Don't mind me, I'm a cynic)
Don't mistake me for a real estate investor (or would-be investor). I'm not. I've only ever bought and sold six properties in my lifetime, and all of those were to live in. It's just been dumb luck that I've made money each time I sold, sometimes a halfway decent amount, sometimes just a few shekels left over after closing for a down payment on the next place. And I never put much money into fixing up a place, anymore than I absolutely had to in order to keep the roof from leaking or the AC running or the toilet flushing. Granite countertops were never my thing, but it sure was fun watching a prospective buyer envision that nasty old formica transformed into Corian with a shepherd's crook faucet poised gracefully over the kitchen sink.
Don't tell Home Despot, but sometimes you make more money by NOT fixing up a house and selling it than you do by going all in for improvements.
I agree with most of what you said in your last two posts k.
I don't think Blackstone is even down this far but it would be nice if they were. Comparing Greenville, South Carolina to PC/PG...or TB for that matter is apples/oranges.
This is a retirement area that people seek from many miles or borders away. Rental prices, lack of jobs or lending is not a problem for most buyers.
I would not advise selling now for anyone unless they think the recent elections could have a major negative impact....they might. I myself am waiting to see what comes before laying out any more cash...here, or anywhere...but even if we dip again I would pretty much bet my life that now is a good time to buy here if we were to look back in 10 years.
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Granite countertops were never my thing, but it sure was fun watching a prospective buyer envision that nasty old formica transformed into Corian with a shepherd's crook faucet poised gracefully over the kitchen sink.
