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Old 06-01-2014, 09:11 AM
 
Location: Anthem, AZ
2,118 posts, read 2,995,064 times
Reputation: 654

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This is the thread where we will discuss this year's storms, storm tracks, fears, fun and excitement associated with our annual event. Post pictures of LOCAL storms, flooding, damage and tell your personal stories of preparation and parties celebrating the storms going somewhere other than here!

June 1 marks the start of the six month Atlantic Hurricane Season. One of my favorite experts to follow is Denis Phillips, the Chief Meteorologist from the ABC affiliate in Tampa. He is very active on social media, hosting live chats to discuss storms and such with lay persons. He authored the following:

Rules For Hurricane Season By

1. Storm track errors past 3 days are HUGE. Don't get caught up on forecasts that far out. You'll go crazy.

2. Models flip flop back and forth all the time. Look for trends, don't look at individual model runs.

3. If you didn't prepare in June (which you probably didn't), do so now. Check your hurricane kit and guide to see what YOU and your family
need.

4. Don't freak out.

5. Don't freak out. Ok? We live in Florida. It goes with the territory. The odds of a storm affecting us directly is usually low, and the track that the NHC now has, would probably lift Northeast and weaken considerably after passing Cuba. The track will change often. At this point, our chances of a direct strikes are EXTREMELY LOW. LET'S REPEAT THAT ONE, our chances of a direct strikes are EXTREMELY low.

6. KNOW that we will be there will you 24-7. You're going to hear a ton of information. It can get confusing. Stick with us. We won't steer you wrong.

7. Stop freaking out....until I tell you to. We're fine.
Authored by Denis Phillips

My favorite website for monitoring storms is Hurricane Spaghetti Models / Spaghetti Charts / Tropical Forecast / Hurricane Charts Models / Tropical Update
It's the one site that has absolutely everything.

Have a hurricane party and welcome each named storm with a cold beverage. It's much more effective than wishing them away.
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Old 06-01-2014, 09:14 AM
 
Location: PGI-finally here!!!!!!!!!!
325 posts, read 371,186 times
Reputation: 127
Thanks for starting this. Me being a full time newb this will help a lot.
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Old 06-01-2014, 09:17 AM
 
2,559 posts, read 2,159,774 times
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All that El Nino stuff is interesting.

Am I correct that SE Florida will be wet but no terrible storms. Further up the coast has more risk this year???
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Old 06-01-2014, 09:26 AM
 
1,917 posts, read 1,978,585 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ByeByeLW View Post
All that El Nino stuff is interesting.

Am I correct that SE Florida will be wet but no terrible storms. Further up the coast has more risk this year???
They said the same thing in 1992 and then Andrew destroyed a large part of Florida.

In the end their forecast in 1992 was correct, it was a very quiet hurricane season. But it only takes one storm.

Gary
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Old 06-01-2014, 09:29 AM
 
Location: Anthem, AZ
2,118 posts, read 2,995,064 times
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@ByeBye

Cannot do anything more than speculate on the past but "they" say this year will be lighter than usual.
"They" also said last year would be heavier and "they" were wrong. I haven't put the shutters up in years and have only put they up 3 times in the past 6 years. This is my 7th hurricane season here. The worst thing we faced at my house was TS Debby when we got about a 3 foot storm surge in the canal. No wind threats here to speak of since Charley, which was before my time.

Read all the preparation stuff and be prepared to put your plan in action at least 72 hours before you think you need to. Hopefully, all we do is drill but if you don't drill, you'll likely never be ready.
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Old 06-01-2014, 09:33 AM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 23,750,093 times
Reputation: 4900
I usually make my prediction for the Miami area by this time, but the weather has been sending me mixed signals. Seriously, I am hoping for a major storm to hit Miami to stop the current real estate bubble, but I have to not let my desires change my observations.
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Old 06-01-2014, 09:56 AM
 
Location: SW Florida
9,659 posts, read 6,957,805 times
Reputation: 13962
Quote:
Originally Posted by ByeByeLW View Post
All that El Nino stuff is interesting.

Am I correct that SE Florida will be wet but no terrible storms. Further up the coast has more risk this year???
It's hard to say. The National Hurricane Center is predicting fewer named storms this year, due to the predicted presence of an El Nino system in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These systems have traditionally been associated with a decrease the number of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes hitting the US- mostly, as I understand it, from wind shear generated by the El Nino which keeps these storms from becoming too strong and serving to recurve the storms that do form northwards and away from the US.

Interaction with El Niño: how hurricane frequency may be affected

El Nino May Tame Atlantic Hurricanes, Bring Beneficial Rain to California


That said, major hurricanes can and do still form in El Nino years, the example that comes to mind is Hurricane Andrew in August 1992. This was a Cat 5 hurricane that hit southern Miami-Dade County causing something in the range of 16 billion dollars damage, and destruction of approximately 125,000 homes and businesses ( our home was one of those statistics). So we really can't say there will be no terrible storms at this point, we hope not, but it's too soon to tell.

Where hurricanes hit, and how strong they become, and are at landfall depends so much on the prevailing weather, ocean temperatures, steering currents, encountered land masses each tropical system encounters as it forms and makes its way across the Atlantic, ( or Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, Pacific for storms formed in those regions). I don't think there is any way to tell at this point if, or where any storm that forms this year would likely hit, so I'd guess we could say, before we see any systems and see where they are headed, that there's an equal chance for any of us in hurricane alley to be visited by a hurricane. That's why we make preparations, have hurricane plans, and keep an eye on weather forecasts and tropical reports at this time of the year, and hope that we don't have a hurricane come this way, but we're prepared in the event it does.

The links provided by the OP are excellent sources for keeping track of tropical systems during hurricane season- as he says, the Weather Underground has all kinds of information relative to given tropical systems, including a couple links to the National Hurricane Center, which is also another great source of information.

As for hurricane season, after living in Florida for nearly 40 years, having been through quite a few hurricanes, worse for wear after one of them, mostly inconvenienced by the others, all I can say is, "here we go again..."
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Old 06-01-2014, 10:02 AM
 
Location: SW Florida
9,659 posts, read 6,957,805 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tallrick View Post
I usually make my prediction for the Miami area by this time, but the weather has been sending me mixed signals. Seriously, I am hoping for a major storm to hit Miami to stop the current real estate bubble, but I have to not let my desires change my observations.
Geez, I hope you're kidding about that.... otherwise why in this world would you wish such destruction, loss of life, property and livelihoods on the people who live there- many of whom either aren't participating in said real estate bubble or are actually hurt by it?
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Old 06-01-2014, 03:54 PM
 
Location: Port Charlotte
1,689 posts, read 2,068,712 times
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great thread MA wasn't debby a couple year ago the storm surge was over my dock and at the top of my seawall when it went down. during charley the first track I was had charlotte harbor in the bullseye then it moved to tampa. surprise turn east last minute back here.

that was a vusy year I put the shutter up and down about 5 times
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Old 06-01-2014, 06:13 PM
 
747 posts, read 753,222 times
Reputation: 352
when you put the shutters up (say if you go away for a few days or even a few months), does that do anything to increase the temps & humidity inside (since no windows open)?

i presume you have to have an attic fan running at all times during the hot seasons and have the a/c set at a minimum to keep the humidity down & out?
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