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Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, Cary The Triangle Area
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Old 08-06-2007, 01:05 AM
 
Location: Avondale, Chicago
14,415 posts, read 26,241,071 times
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Can anyone tell any instances in the Triangle in which local governments, HOAs, grassroots citizen groups or any entity has managed to block new development? Ideally it sounds great to keep the floodgates open and let everyone roll in. More people means a better economy, right? That gravy train doesn't roll forever, though. Are all those people getting jobs created for them? RTP and the growing financial district in Raleigh do not have the sheer number of jobs for everyone in New Jersey and the people who are already living there. The growing glut of workers just make employers more selective, and the meaning of "entry level" gets shifted towards those more qualified. This means just having gone to school and getting to RDU means it's a slam dunk you're gonna get a job.

A Grim housing glut in Collin county

Consider this cautionary tale....if you don't think this can't happen in the Triangle in the near or more distant future, please explain why.

I know that not everyone who is moving to NC use this website, so to consider the masses coming from places like New Jersey and California based simply on what you see here is just phenomenal.

There are actually subdivisions going up in Johnston County with the houses all built at once before they are sold - that is a quite bold thing for a developer to do. At most I will see them laying out the subdivision roads and plumbing to where each house would be built but nothing would actually go up until someone has committed to living in that house. For the people that have bought in such a development, their houses are practically worthless on the secondhand market until the whole subdivision is bought. How can the occupied houses appreciate when people can just move into one of the never-occupied ones? Even if they do appreciate on paper, could you actually get a buyer? They're worthless in practicality until you can find one.

This is not intended either to encourage or discourage moving to or out of the Triangle, or to move anywhere for that matter. This is encouraging nothing but some intellectual debate. You can write this all off as Chicken Little and say the sky is not falling. It's not the sky falling. It's just the other foot falling. It's happened eventually in every Sun Belt city/suburb taking in mass quantities of outsiders. Eventually the growth and the seemingly endless cycle of appreciation levels off. What will happen then? Will too many speculators who came in while the bubble was just beginning to grow pull out and go back to where they came from (or the next real estate hotspot)? Sleepy ol' Tobacco Road is no more. Change is happening quickly. What sounds like something that can happen 20 years from now can happen just two years from now.
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Old 08-06-2007, 03:19 AM
 
9,568 posts, read 27,048,370 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfre81 View Post
Can anyone tell any instances in the Triangle in which local governments, HOAs, grassroots citizen groups or any entity has managed to block new development?
Leaders in Chapel Hill, Carrboro and other areas of Southeast Orange County got together years ago and developed and adopted some sort of Sustainable Community Comprehensive Land Use Plan to control growth in those areas. They have been extremely successful with controlling growth and thwarting new development in because of this. The lack of new development and focus on land preservation and public transportation are a few of the major reason's why housing is so expensive in those areas.
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Old 08-06-2007, 06:37 AM
 
285 posts, read 949,163 times
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jfre81, I noticed in the thread you cited that several posters cited the cause of the problem being buyers who bought more house than they could afford. I quote here:

Quote:
This is not the result of city decisions. This is the result of years of making loans to people who couldn't afford the homes they were buying. We in the appraisal industry have been waiving the red flags for years, but the mortgage industry and home builders just kept on. I saw this in the 80's and here we go again.
I've seen some of this happening here, as people went crazy with the low interest rate ARMs of a few years ago. People were financing to the very limit of their capability with very low rate ARMs and now, as the rates and monthly payments have increased, they can no longer afford their home.

I do have some concern about the unchecked growth and proliferation of what I consider haphazard eyesore neighborhoods. I would like to see Wake and Johnston Counties take their cue from Orange County's approach to growth, but I don't see that happening any time soon.

It's easy for me to hide my head in the sand over here in slower growing Orange County, and I work in Durham County, so I can just sort of ignore the eastern side of the Triangle area, but I care enough about the Triangle to not want to see it become just like Atlanta. However, since I didn't grow up here and have only lived here for 10 years, I can't very well start requesting that people not move here. I'm not sure what the ultimate solution is, other than regulating growth.
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Old 08-06-2007, 07:21 AM
 
9,680 posts, read 24,107,548 times
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What I see is an explosion waiting to happen if the tech boom busts again as it did in 2000.

Foreclosures and abandoned stores will abound as the newcomers run home with tails between their legs.

Traditional NC salaries in many fields will not pay for a McMansion.

This growth is a setup for a big fall.

I saw it happen in New Orleans in the late 80's. Not a pleasant sight.
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Old 08-06-2007, 07:43 AM
bta
 
Location: Cary, NC
284 posts, read 1,775,449 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfre81 View Post
Can anyone tell any instances in the Triangle in which local governments, HOAs, grassroots citizen groups or any entity has managed to block new development?
Here's Cary's Growth Management Plan, developed in 2000:

http://www.townofcary.info/depts/dsdept/GrowthManagementPlan/gmpfinalcolor.pdf (broken link)

Also, the July 2006 population report:
http://www.townofcary.org/depts/dsdept/P&Z/populationreport.pdf (broken link)

I don't think this year's population report has been released yet.

While Cary is certainly not blocking new development, they have put in place measures to help contain it to a manageable rate.
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Old 08-06-2007, 08:37 AM
 
2,746 posts, read 6,416,722 times
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2 that come to mind immediately:

Glen Lang ran for Mayor of Cary, and won, on a slow growth platform. He was very much a maverick and ruffled a lot of feathers. Ultimately, the power and money behind growth got a guy more in line with what they wanted in the next election, but Lang definitely had an impact. The brief break obviously, but also just his effect on the debate. Stuff that was once swept under the rug is now openly debated.

In Raleigh, I have a lot of memories of the whole "Coker Towers" fiasco. Coker wanted to build a massive project at Wade and Oberlin. This is between Hayes Barton and Cameron Village, 2 major ITB areas of Raleigh. Citizen groups fought hard to get the project changed. In the end, a quite modest project was built relative to what was proposed.
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Old 08-06-2007, 08:45 AM
 
2,746 posts, read 6,416,722 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saturnfan View Post
What I see is an explosion waiting to happen if the tech boom busts again as it did in 2000.
The effect of the early 2000s dotcom/telecom bust on this area wasn't really that big a deal. Certainly to the people affected it was, but not to the overall area. The local economy is driven by a lot more than just a few tech companies.
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Old 08-06-2007, 09:33 AM
 
310 posts, read 1,597,149 times
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Any growth in a city is based on supply and demand of workfoce. If people move here and don't find a job, they will go somewhere else.

Here are some fact regarding the current state of economy:

"June, 2007 data released by the North Carolina Employment Security Commission revealed a Wake County workforce
of 440,080 with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. This is an increase of 2.4% compared to the June ’06 workforce of
429,905. The unemployment rate in June ‘06 was 3.8%"
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Old 08-06-2007, 03:11 PM
 
Location: between here and there
1,030 posts, read 2,773,148 times
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Everything in life is cyclical and and economic growth is no exception. The country is presently facing one of the biggest housing crisis' it has seen following the 5 plus years of price gouging around the country, especially in the booming markets.

Many people then in turn, dipped into their home's equity only to find out now that they are in the red or upsidedown as it's called when they owe more than their house is worth. Hence, a record number of foreclosures will occurr as adjustable rates added to already hefty mortgage begin taxing homeowner's ability to pay. The cost of EVERYTHING has increased after 3 years of gas price increases and people can only absorb so much before the bottom falls out.


The powers that be are going to downplay this scenario as an election year hovers in front of us. Bush has taked enough hits with the war and gas prices; he's going to hang on to the "great housing market chant" for as long as he can albiet clay-footed for sure.

For areas like NC, the market will probably take a softer downturn as it still hasn't reached it's peak and people keep coming into the area in droves. In the parts of the country that have peaked, housing gluts will be happening for sure.

I have a friend who built spec homes in FL that were selling before completion 2 years ago.....he's been now sitting on 3 at the cost of 5 grand a month for almost a year and not a bite..well, actually, a lot of lowballs that don't touch what he's put into them.

For me, I'm just months shy of a mortgage burning party and I would not even consider upgrading at this point.....there's something real comforting about a "Paid in Full Home Sweet Home"

People in this country of things, things, and more things need to realize moderation in life makes for very restful nights sleep......

Last edited by Fallingwater79; 08-06-2007 at 03:24 PM..
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Old 08-06-2007, 03:21 PM
 
Location: Avondale, Chicago
14,415 posts, read 26,241,071 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnE1000 View Post
Any growth in a city is based on supply and demand of workfoce. If people move here and don't find a job, they will go somewhere else.

Here are some fact regarding the current state of economy:

"June, 2007 data released by the North Carolina Employment Security Commission revealed a Wake County workforce
of 440,080 with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. This is an increase of 2.4% compared to the June ’06 workforce of
429,905. The unemployment rate in June ‘06 was 3.8%"
Indeed - I do not debate at all that the local economy there is good.

But it still begs the question - are there even enough new jobs every day created for the people who start "(X) to Raleigh/(X) to the Triangle" threads on here? Let alone the ones who don't look at all this?

I'm thinking more about what the figures will look like in June 2009. If you're still going to have a mortgage to pay at that time, you should be paying attention.

saturnfan was in New Orleans in the late 80s - Houston hit the wall at the same time, specifically starting in 1986. Before that everyone had visions of sugarplums and endless appreciation here too.
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