Any surprises? (Charlotte, Raleigh, Chapel Hill: hardwood floors, sale, crime)

[thisguy]

Originally Posted by beittels

Honestly though, regardless of how many people are moving to NC, the fact of the matter for us, no matter how bleak Raleigh's future might be, is that we CAN afford to buy a single family home there and settle down a little. The problem here is that there is no way on God's green earth that we can afford a single family house., The prices start in the mid 500's (for very small singles), and mid 600's for nice sized (3000 sf or above) places. And, of course, those are just starter numbers. By the time you finish off the rec room and add the powder room on the lower level you're up to your eyeballs in money and expenses. So moving laterally here in Gainesville is out of the ? for us. So now it's just a matter of finding a compromise that we can deal with. We know for a fact that traffic in Raleigh is nowhere near what we have experienced here. In fact Raleigh's traffic and congestion pales in comparison to any Northeast city or to LA.

My brother lives over in Thomasville and he too claims that he would never want to live in Raleigh. As for ,my wife and I... we are urbanites at heart. We want to be close to as many of the amenities and cultural activities (symphony, ballet, museums, concert pavilions, resturants, markets etc...) as we can afford, and yet not break the bank.

So, again, I guess from our standpoint, this is a compromise. We realize it may not be perfect, but it's sort of the next stepping stone for us. Perhaps after a few years in Raleigh, we'll be ready to move to a place like Greensboro/Highoint/Thoimasville.... or we may even turn our attention to the burbs of Charleston, SC (where my in laws live).

Wow... now the future of Raleigh is "bleak" ? Cmon

She said things were getting more expensive, not that it will be northern VA in 3-5 years. As people move to an area and it gets more crowded it will get more expensive over time. That's just reality. To use the word of a "BLEAK" future of Raleigh is way over the top. It has the 3rd highest educated workforce (% of people holding bachelors) in the entire country, at *THIS* time (subject to change) companies are relocating workers there and finding Wake County a good place to do business, and with cost of living etc a favorable place for them (as a business) and their employees (as a place to live), the schools (for NC) are generally quite good, the traffic even if it DOUBLED from levels I saw last week won't hold a feather to the hell that is northern VA traffic, etc. The jobs are not all concentrated in 1 field, hence if there is a recession in 1 specific area it won't hurt a diversified economy like Raleigh's as much. It *IS* a smaller city but it *DOES* have cultural amenities : the symphony, ballet, museums, resturants, markets etc

I am not sugar coating it, and I have posted various times about the "bad" that comes along with growth (and there is good as well), but to call the future of a city with all those positives BLEAK is just plain silly. In northern VA if you want to buy a 1970s starter home you have to pay $300K+ correct? I remember the median house was now in upper $400s (near $500K) in the areas I researched. Alexandria, Vienna, etc. If you want a 1970s house in a town like Cary they have them for $160K. (Cary being the "expensive city") So even if you see some serious appreciation, it won't become unaffordable to everyone anytime in the near future. If you want all the bells and whistles and need a 3500 sq foot home, than yes the area is not cheap, but most people don't need those things. WIll taxes go up? Of course, as city services need to expand and schools need more, etc. Is the future "bleak" - come drive by Detroit where the auto industry (domestic) is dying and houses have not appreciated in 5 years, and people are THANKFUL to find jobs that pay $12/hour when they used to work for $28/hour 2 years ago. White collar ranks are cut by 25%+ in about 3 years, etc. People moving out in droves. Thats BLEAK. Comparitvely speaking Raleigh is not bleak, nor has a bleak future. Is it perfect? No. But bleak is certainly not the word. (as an aside Charleston SC looked more expensive than most parts of Raleigh, lot less diverse job bank, less diversity in arts/culture, more of a tourist town (you are 'urbanites' and if you find Raleigh small and quaint you will find Charlestown boring very quickly, more susceptible to downturn in economy with limited economy etc)

Again, no place is perfect. People's guesses of the future here are just guesses. Tell me where northern VA will be in 3 years? One guy will tell me homes will be down 30% from current levels, another will tell me its still going up after a "hiccup" for the next 12 months, and in 3 years, homes will be up another 20%. All opinions.

[beittels]

thisguy, you are right... I probably should not have used the word "bleak". There are much worse areas to call home... that I'm 100% certain of. I guess we're just worried because we are trying to escape this rat-race here in NOVA and we certainly don't wish to have an encore performance of the chaos we've experienced here. We want things to be slower, less crowded, less hectic altogether. But in many ways you are right-- you can't always have your cake and eat it too! My wife and I are indeed "urbanites", and so I guess you have to take the good with the bad. As you have noted, as Raleigh grows, it will become less affordable, more crowded, perhaps slightly less of a respite from the bigger cities here in the Northeast as it may be now. BUT one thing I am certain of is that we can't afford a single family house here in NOVA right now (or probably ever). So, if we want one, and we want to be close to a good city, then Raleigh is certainly a great compromise.

On the big question as to what's going to happen here in NOVA... it's all speculation and opinion of course. But I'd say the market was so unrealistically high for so long that what's really happening is an adjustment. Problem is- I do forsee a further drop in numbers before we get to a leveling off point. For example, townhomes in my neighborhood that sold for $350k last year are lucky to get $300k now. Unfortunately there does not seem to be an end to that bottom quite yet... I really think that by next spring or summer these townhomes could very well see another $50K hit. Now, I do agree with some of what you've heard... For example, once the market get's to its' leveling off point, looking five years down the road maybe, the prices will likely increase again by 20-30%. So, maybe five years from now, those of us who have lost $100K in equity over the last year will see it back in our pockets again. Only problem with that theory is that places like Raleigh are on the rise. Much of that is being fueled by the bad market here. Large numbers of people like ourselves are bailing out of their sinking ships in NOVA, and where are they going-- RALEIGH and other places in NC and SC and FL. The more people that want properties in Raleigh, the greater the cost will be to buy them. Here the problem is huge inventory and low numbers of potential purchasers. In Raleigh, the opposite is true... less inventory (than NOVA), but many more buyers coming in to snatch them away. So, yes, my wife and I could wait another couple years to see what happens with our market, but prices will be rising on single family homes in Raleigh at the same time, making a move to a place like Raleigh improbable say three years from now. All we know is that the time has come to jump ship here. Get out of reversing equity, and back into sustainable growth again. If it were not for the fact that our commute here is horrible, and that we are in a small townhome with 1350 sf, I'd say, sure- let's wait it out and see what happens. But we want a nice place to raise a family, to settle down a little, to take things a little more slowly, to have a nice sized (2500-3000 sf) detached home, to have a nice backyard and nice neighbors and nice schools, but to have a decent city too.... Unfortunately, here in the suburbs of DC, that dream really isnt attainable.

I'm sure like most of the other people thinking of relocating to Raleigh, I'm just trying to become as informed and educated about the area as I possibly can., I'd rather go into this next stage of my life with my eyes wide open rather than half shut. But none of us have a crystal ball. If we did, this forum wouldnt be necessary. Your comments were much appreciated-- thanks and keep em coming!

[thisguy]

You are coming from a market where people with $90K of income in the house are getting help to buy their homes. That is the definition of nuts

Read the links here:
http://www.city-data.com/forum/gener...read-weep.html

The article clearly states the main issues going on in these overheated markets. Average people doing average jobs like policemen, teachers, firefighters, "service" industries which make up the largest portion of our economy nowadays cannot afford homes close to jobs. So they either take out exotic risky loans that are going to jump and the only way they can stay in the home is if equity jumps 10-20% a year (unrealistic) or they have to move out to the "ex-urbs" 1-2 hours away from jobs. Not a good way to live. As the beginning of the article states housing prices in that area have grown 12x as fast as incomes in the past 5 years. That makes it impossible for people to buy homes. Even if prices drop 20% its still impossible for most new people to enter the market so your supply of new buyers diminishes and prices need to keep falling until a level is reached where people can afford.

There is very little planning going on in most cities and those that do plan run into resistance from those already with homes - there needs to be more mixed housing in these major cities, apartments, condos, vertical building, smaller lots closer to the city, etc but people don't want that next to them because the perception is it will lower values of their homes when those "vermin" (i.e. teachers, policeman) move in. So you have the situation you see now in NoVa and other parts of the country that are overheated where you have to drive 90 minutes away to get a semi-reasonable home.

Again relating to Raleigh - there is still a lot of undeveloped land relative to other cities, so these situations won't be happening anytime soon. Will prices and costs increase? Of course - any desirable area will increase. This is happening to the North Carolina/Colorado/Portlands of the world - they are getting the next wave as people have been priced out of DC, Boston, NY, LA, San Diego, Seattle, etc - people are moving to the next group of towns (and jobs are going there too because some employers are not able to find employees who can afford the cost of living in those areas that already have skyrocketed) So it is inevitable... but the time for it to play out should be a while and if you find areas that still have lots of undeveloped land around the city core and/or smart urban planning (i.e. Portland) - you can at least enjoy the next 10-15 years in relative serenity.

When you say places like Raleigh are on the rise, well it rose 6% last year... that is not outrageous. Or a reason to avoid an area. Portland is seeing 20-30% increase in the past year - I'd be more worried about moving there. Some places in Arizona are seeing that sort of increase now as people are fleeing California (much like Virginia and NJ people seem to be fleeing their areas for NC)... so 6-8% is nothing crazy. Inflation is running around 4% so its 2% over inflation rates. Nothing to hand wring about.

Yes many buyers are coming to Raleigh but the building is quite tremendous (have you been down lately? it is nuts, its everywhere - new housing), and the pace of buyers coming down is going to slow as they have a lot harder time selling their old homes. In 05 you could sell your home in 24 hours and go to Raleigh. Now its taking people 6-8 months. Most people can't afford 2 homes, so until they sell their old home in markets that are falling, they can wish all day to move to Raleigh (or any cheap market) but they are stuck to some degree. So that will also help alleviate the stress on a market like Raleigh since people are having much harder times getting out of their old homes and hence the "gold rush" to Charlotte/Raleigh is taking longer. But like I said earlier, at least there IS ROOM within 30 minutes of the major job centers in both these cities for new construction - that makes these markets very different from where you are coming from or the San Diegos, LA's, NYC, Boston markets in which every square inch has been developed in a 30 mile radius of the downtowns. So you are in a much earlier phase.

[Cassie]

Originally Posted by beittels

Cassie, thanks for messaging back. Hoping to hear more from you soon either here in the forum or in PM. Nice to find someone else that's so familiar with our area and the stress it brings us on a daily basis. We live right off Catharpin Road over on the Haymarket side of town (but our address is considered Gainesville). We're in Crossroads (if you have heard of this) which is mix of towns and singles built in the late 90's and early 2000's.

Hi Stefan.

I know Catharpin Road. I know the horrific 66 commute, one of our reasons for leaving. My husband must have aged 10 years in the last few years driving it. I stopped doing it about 3 years ago. Couldn't take it any more.

I haven't forgotten about e-mailing you but a close friend of mine from Chapel Hill whom I haven't seen in a while has been visiting and is leaving today. I'll try to get to it tonight.

Regards,

Cassie

[thisguy]

Originally Posted by beittels

On the big question as to what's going to happen here in NOVA... it's all speculation and opinion of course. But I'd say the market was so unrealistically high for so long that what's really happening is an adjustment. Problem is- I do forsee a further drop in numbers before we get to a leveling off point. For example, townhomes in my neighborhood that sold for $350k last year are lucky to get $300k now. Unfortunately there does not seem to be an end to that bottom quite yet... I really think that by next spring or summer these townhomes could very well see another $50K hit. Now, I do agree with some of what you've heard... For example, once the market get's to its' leveling off point, looking five years down the road maybe, the prices will likely increase again by 20-30%. So, maybe five years from now, those of us who have lost $100K in equity over the last year will see it back in our pockets again. Only problem with that theory is that places like Raleigh are on the rise. Much of that is being fueled by the bad market here. Large numbers of people like ourselves are bailing out of their sinking ships in NOVA, and where are they going-- RALEIGH and other places in NC and SC and FL. The more people that want properties in Raleigh, the greater the cost will be to buy them. Here the problem is huge inventory and low numbers of potential purchasers. In Raleigh, the opposite is true... less inventory (than NOVA), but many more buyers coming in to snatch them away. So, yes, my wife and I could wait another couple years to see what happens with our market, but prices will be rising on single family homes in Raleigh at the same time, making a move to a place like Raleigh improbable say three years from now. All we know is that the time has come to jump ship here. Get out of reversing equity, and back into sustainable growth again. If it were not for the fact that our commute here is horrible, and that we are in a small townhome with 1350 sf, I'd say, sure- let's wait it out and see what happens. But we want a nice place to raise a family, to settle down a little, to take things a little more slowly, to have a nice sized (2500-3000 sf) detached home, to have a nice backyard and nice neighbors and nice schools, but to have a decent city too....

I'm sure like most of the other people thinking of relocating to Raleigh, I'm just trying to become as informed and educated about the area as I possibly can., I'd rather go into this next stage of my life with my eyes wide open rather than half shut. But none of us have a crystal ball. If we did, this forum wouldnt be necessary. Your comments were much appreciated-- thanks and keep em coming!

p.s. I am not saying NOT to NOT move. I just think your hand wringing about Raleigh is a bit overdone. In 5 years the houses won't be $500K on average, there is a lot of supply coming online and still lots of open areas especially to the south and east of the city, and even north once you go north of 540. All that is within 30 minutes of downtown.

I just don't want you to be like some of the people I am reading about on the Charlotte board, part of the big influx of people who are paying any price the builders ask because you are afraid you are going to "miss out". (builders taking advantgae of the equity people are bringing from other states and jacking up prices) Like I said over on that board, if people are paying 30% more for the same home that was built a 2 years ago how do you think they will do when they sell in 10 years? One house (which cost 30% less) was built in 2004, and the other house (built in 2006) cost 30% more because people are throwing sense to the wind. Do you a think a buyer in 2016 is going to pay 30% more for a 2006 model versus a 2004 model? No. One will be 10 years old, and one will be 12 years old - buyer is going to pay about the same. The guy who paid 30% extra to get a brand new house is going to lose out. Any person paying that much more in these markets for basically the same house "used" that is 3-4-5 years old and 20-30% less is just being foolish and will pay for it on the selling end down the road. Already these new home builders are quietely starting to offer discounts because their inventory is building up... even in these 'red hot' markets.

From my visit down there, new housing seems to be overpriced and the sweet spot is homes in the 3-7 year old range. They are built (generally) on bigger lots, sometimes wooded....your landscaping is all done, and they sell for a steep discount (sometimes 20-30% off) houses built new with the same features. But people seem really enthralled with buying new and I guess will pay 30% more for that right. I don't get that because with the 20-30% you save heck you could put in any custom feature you see in a brand new house and still make out well ahead on the cost side.

[Miker2069]

Originally Posted by thisguy

p.s. I am not saying NOT to NOT move. I just think your hand wringing about Raleigh is a bit overdone. In 5 years the houses won't be $500K on average, there is a lot of supply coming online and still lots of open areas especially to the south and east of the city, and even north once you go north of 540. All that is within 30 minutes of downtown.

I just don't want you to be like some of the people I am reading about on the Charlotte board, part of the big influx of people who are paying any price the builders ask because you are afraid you are going to "miss out". (builders taking advantgae of the equity people are bringing from other states and jacking up prices) Like I said over on that board, if people are paying 30% more for the same home that was built a 2 years ago how do you think they will do when they sell in 10 years? One house (which cost 30% less) was built in 2004, and the other house (built in 2006) cost 30% more because people are throwing sense to the wind. Do you a think a buyer in 2016 is going to pay 30% more for a 2006 model versus a 2004 model? No. One will be 10 years old, and one will be 12 years old - buyer is going to pay about the same. The guy who paid 30% extra to get a brand new house is going to lose out. Any person paying that much more in these markets for basically the same house "used" that is 3-4-5 years old and 20-30% less is just being foolish and will pay for it on the selling end down the road. Already these new home builders are quietely starting to offer discounts because their inventory is building up... even in these 'red hot' markets.

From my visit down there, new housing seems to be overpriced and the sweet spot is homes in the 3-7 year old range. They are built (generally) on bigger lots, sometimes wooded....your landscaping is all done, and they sell for a steep discount (sometimes 20-30% off) houses built new with the same features. But people seem really enthralled with buying new and I guess will pay 30% more for that right. I don't get that because with the 20-30% you save heck you could put in any custom feature you see in a brand new house and still make out well ahead on the cost side.

While everything you said is very true and stated well, there are those of us that just want a new home, never lived in, brand new, with the new home smell (i.e., new car smell). This happens to be my second home, and we wanted to build it from scratch. We have about .7 acres, and were shooting for over .5 acres. I haven't seen the comps for homes in our area (south Charlotte) I do believe you are correct that your money will go a lot farther on homes < 10 years old. I'm not sure if it's 20%-30%, but may be 10% or so, which is still a LOT of money.

I have a buy and stay mindset right now. This is going to be our home for a LONG time, at least for the next 12 years. Anyway, it may be illogical to overpay, but some are willing to pay a premium for it.

Now if you talk cars, I'd NEVER buy a new car again . The new car smell isn't worth (to me) the 15% loss in value the instant you drive it off the lot .

[Weis02]

The only issue that will effect things can be that while the appreication in the area may go up a certain percentage, people trying to sell from high end areas, are no longer seeing any appreciation, in fact, in some markets homes are declining in value

So that means less money in the sellers pocket could effect the price they pay down here.

I imagine some not doing the proper research will still go for that house, getting a higher mortgage thinking everything is less expensive and only end up in the same financial position that they left.

So this will cause some slowdown in certain areas or appreciation will be less - who knows.

[Weis02]

Originally Posted by Miker2069

While everything you said is very true and stated well, there are those of us that just want a new home, never lived in, brand new, with the new home smell (i.e., new car smell). This happens to be my second home, and we wanted to build it from scratch. We have about .7 acres, and were shooting for over .5 acres. I haven't seen the comps for homes in our area (south Charlotte) I do believe you are correct that your money will go a lot farther on homes < 10 years old. I'm not sure if it's 20%-30%, but may be 10% or so, which is still a LOT of money.

I have a buy and stay mindset right now. This is going to be our home for a LONG time, at least for the next 12 years. Anyway, it may be illogical to overpay, but some are willing to pay a premium for it.

Now if you talk cars, I'd NEVER buy a new car again . The new car smell isn't worth (to me) the 15% loss in value the instant you drive it off the lot .

I think it depends on what you are leaving, I know I would want a new home because I bought a resell (my current home) had to redo everything and I do not want to go through that again .. be there, done that.

Others coming from small homes or apts are just happy to buy a home and do not care if it is new or not but since resells are comparative with new homes in some areas, why buy old when you can have new unless you are one of those looking for an established neighborhood, a type of house, etc.

But's its funny Mike how you say new smell, new this, new that.. when we re did our bathrooms, my DH wanted to be the first one to use the toilet. But at that same time, the newness does fade as the walls get scratches and carpets stained etc ... like getting your first door ding on a car - the only difference is the price won't drop by use, in fact, it goes up. (well we all hope)

[Miker2069]

Originally Posted by Weis02

I think it depends on what you are leaving, I know I would want a new home because I bought a resell (my current home) had to redo everything and I do not want to go through that again .. be there, done that.

Others coming from small homes or apts are just happy to buy a home and do not care if it is new or not but since resells are comparative with new homes in some areas, why buy old when you can have new unless you are one of those looking for an established neighborhood, a type of house, etc.

But's its funny Mike how you say new smell, new this, new that.. when we re did our bathrooms, my DH wanted to be the first one to use the toilet. But at that same time, the newness does fade as the walls get scratches and carpets stained etc ... like getting your first door ding on a car - the only difference is the price won't drop by use, in fact, it goes up. (well we all hope)

I agree Weis...I had one of the "snort" laughs on the "first to use the toilet"...as I guy, I can related- LOL.

Anyway, yes with are in that phase. You almost don't want to cook in your *new* kitchen. However I can't leave the dishes in the sink anymore (that's a no no!)

[thisguy]

Originally Posted by Miker2069

While everything you said is very true and stated well, there are those of us that just want a new home, never lived in, brand new, with the new home smell (i.e., new car smell). This happens to be my second home, and we wanted to build it from scratch. We have about .7 acres, and were shooting for over .5 acres. I haven't seen the comps for homes in our area (south Charlotte) I do believe you are correct that your money will go a lot farther on homes < 10 years old. I'm not sure if it's 20%-30%, but may be 10% or so, which is still a LOT of money.

I have a buy and stay mindset right now. This is going to be our home for a LONG time, at least for the next 12 years. Anyway, it may be illogical to overpay, but some are willing to pay a premium for it.

Now if you talk cars, I'd NEVER buy a new car again . The new car smell isn't worth (to me) the 15% loss in value the instant you drive it off the lot .

12 years??!

Haven't you heard the future of Charlotte and Raleigh is very bleak. Taking a big risk sticking around that long hehe