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Thanks dansdrive for speaking up for my "younger" generation. I was in grad school for the last 6 years and not in the place to buy a home. Now that I'm looking and actually earning some real money, I kind of feel like someone who came to the party after all the cake has been eaten up.
I'm happy for all of those who got to eat cake but also a little sad that I've missed the party and have been priced out of many markets that could have been a possibility even 2 years ago. Ce' la vie. Time to start playing the lottery.
[quote=omamia;1539011]Thanks dansdrive for speaking up for my "younger" generation. I was in grad school for the last 6 years and not in the place to buy a home. Now that I'm looking and actually earning some real money, I kind of feel like someone who came to the party after all the cake has been eaten up.
I'm happy for all of those who got to eat cake but also a little sad that I've missed the party and have been priced out of many markets that could have been a possibility even 2 years ago. Ce' la vie. Time to start playing the lottery.[/quote
Congratulations omamia on your personal milestone! You did the right thing and forwarded your education and earning power so don't worry its a big cake and your piece is probably just being cut and heading your way! Good luck!!!
I hope this will end the don't buy now frenzy being generated by some posters. Waiting in 12 months will not get lower prices and probably will not find cheaper financing. In fact both price and financing may be up. If inflation starts up the fed will have to raise interest rates. I really think the market slowed when interest rates went over the 6% psychological threshold. As soon as peope hear 5.95 some will get off of the sideline. It is like anything $2.99 sounds a lot cheaper then $3.00.
Well - remember - that DOES actually equate to some real dollar over the long haul. If my math is sound, at 300K mortaged, a quarter point = 18K in payments, so it's not exactly worthless. Using the same investment scheme you referred to in another post about investing in energy, even if they sustain @ 15%, that 18K turns into 290K over the life of the mortgage...or - almost the purchase price of your house. Food for thought.
Also - I gotta say I admire the confidence in which you say nothing around here is going to change. I still can't get past what looks to be an inescapable drop in the the number of out-of-area buyers, and if that number drops precipitously, how "nothing changes". You'd have to have an increase in in-state, or rather in-area matching the out-of-area drop, and I don't see any evidence of that happening.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP
Triangle doesn't need jumbo loan bailouts like the north east does.
Sun belt needs bailout more than anywhere - remember - the big price drops predicted aren't in the Northeast, they're in Nevada, California and Florida.
Well - remember - that DOES actually equate to some real dollar over the long haul. If my math is sound, at 300K mortaged, a quarter point = 18K in payments, so it's not exactly worthless. Using the same investment scheme you referred to in another post about investing in energy, even if they sustain @ 15%, that 18K turns into 290K over the life of the mortgage...or - almost the purchase price of your house. Food for thought.
Also - I gotta say I admire the confidence in which you say nothing around here is going to change. I still can't get past what looks to be an inescapable drop in the the number of out-of-area buyers, and if that number drops precipitously, how "nothing changes". You'd have to have an increase in in-state, or rather in-area matching the out-of-area drop, and I don't see any evidence of that happening.
Sun belt needs bailout more than anywhere - remember - the big price drops predicted aren't in the Northeast, they're in Nevada, California and Florida.
I don't disagree with you, the problem is my gut concurs with you but the data isn't there yet. As a data analyst cruncher I need to be consistant. I spending my own money with my gut and instincts which are cautious. This data is concurrent, I am not sure the leading data is as positive which I believe is your thought. With regards to the long term difference between 5.99% and 6.00% you are 100% right again. However I must ask you the following:
Would we be in the mess we are now if all home buyers did the math? We have this problem because they didn't. Bet you aren't in over your head looking at foreclosure?
Well - September data will be the actual first full month after the countryWide scare which seems to have tipped the scales. Even august isn't very representative - those transactions were all but done before all of this transpired. I guess we'll know better in November when those reports come out.
Well - September data will be the actual first full month after the countryWide scare which seems to have tipped the scales. Even august isn't very representative - those transactions were all but done before all of this transpired. I guess we'll know better in November when those reports come out.
I agree. It will take several months before we know the impacts of the mortgage meltdown. We will have theories on both sides, the doom&gloom crowd and the 'everything is beautiful' crowd. The actuals will speak for themselves.
Being a big advocate of dynamic analysis I believe the Raleigh area will be OK. Granted fewer out-of-state buyers may be moving in to the area at this moment but fewer housing permits are being issued as well. Simply stated, supply is being managed along with demand.
My completely honest opinion is that the Raleigh area real-estate market will cool down but will continue to marginally beat national inflation rates for the next ten years. Take that any way you want but... for the continued vitality of the area that is EXTREMELY good news, IMHO. Greater than 5% annual appreciation quickly makes homes unaffordable. For example, a 200k home will swell to 268k in five years at just 6% annual appreciation.
Remember one of the golden rules of economics; products can not cost more than consumers can afford to pay for them.
Being a big advocate of dynamic analysis I believe the Raleigh area will be OK. Granted fewer out-of-state buyers may be moving in to the area at this moment but fewer housing permits are being issued as well. Simply stated, supply is being managed along with demand.
My completely honest opinion is that the Raleigh area real-estate market will cool down but will continue to marginally beat national inflation rates for the next ten years. Take that any way you want but... for the continued vitality of the area that is EXTREMELY good news, IMHO. Greater than 5% annual appreciation quickly makes homes unaffordable. For example, a 200k home will swell to 268k in five years at just 6% annual appreciation.
Remember one of the golden rules of economics; products can not cost more than consumers can afford to pay for them.
Grizz. I could not put it better my self! You get the 2 chimney glut award....OK so I named a new award for this thread!
I have noticed fewer and fewer out of state license plates lately.
Interesting article about the potential effects of the lowed int erst rate that recently took place as it relates to the housing market. It will have a positive effect on those with Home Equity and Credit card debit which should put more money into the economy over time. The downside is fixed rate mortgage may be going up over time.
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You did the right thing and forwarded your education and earning power so don't worry its a big cake and your piece is probably just being cut and heading your way! Good luck!!!
Thank God for stricter lending practices!
U get the new 2 chimney glut award!!!!
