Glut of homes for sale in the Northern Wake County (Raleigh: transplants, credit rating)

[JohnE1000]

Originally Posted by jbognar

So what does this news mean? Is it the right time to buy yet?

There are two main conditions for the real estate market to prosper; low unemployment rate, and low interest rate.

Unfortunately, the latest jobless claims report was higher than expected, which is not good news. The interest rate, although it is historically low, it is still much higher than few years ago. If the FED reduces the interest rate this month, it will help the market condition.

IMO, it is too early to say. One should look for signs early next year.

[ducter]

I have seen many people try to play the wait it out game, even in the north. I dont think that houses will go down enough to make it worth waiting. The house prices can go down too much here in areas that havent risen like Cary and N Raleigh.

Maybe soon homes will not be looked at as a simpy a 2 year investment! Everyone will get tired of moving soon.

Instead of waiting maybe just look for homes that arent selling fast and just put in an offer that would make you happy. People move for may reasons and sometimes they cant wait for the ideal offer...

[ny,ny]

[SIZE=3]I have nothing but my own observations as a perspective buyer.[/SIZE]
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[SIZE=3]My wife and I started house hunting this past Feb. and we fully expected to have purchased home by now. We made six trips down (we spent the last week of August doing nothing but house hunting) and were amazed at how many vacant resale’s in the $500k to $700k price range there were. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3][/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]We set up a MLS search based on what WCPSS schools we felt were a better match for our family including the Wake Forrest, Apex and Cary areas. New listings are sent via e-mail. Recently a huge amount of houses have recently hit the market. I t seems that more listings are coming now than back in the spring, which is what I would have thought to be the busiest time for new listings.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=3][/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]We have also seen lots of price reductions and have had buyers contact our agent to accept offers that were left on the vine to rot months ago. All the while we were being told about how strong the market was by our “buyers” agent. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3][/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]I wonder how much the problems WCPSS are affecting things. I know for us it has been a huge issue, and would think the same to be true for many families looking to relocate. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3][/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]IMHO things are far from hot in the “prime” market. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3][/SIZE]
We are actually now contemplating purchasing a town home instead since so many of them are on the market and they are so relatively inexpensive. Our thinking is that we can wait until the “perfect home” hits the market at a better price.

[dansdrive]

ny,ny sounds like a plan. Townhomes are being built everywhere in the triangle, faster than potenial buyers so I would think you can get a real nice one for a lower price than you may think and let the market play out. The downturn has just begun. In a down market CASH is KING.

[ny,ny]

(Please forgive my last attempt at this post, I am a newbe and used Word to write it, guess that dosn't work to well.)

I have nothing but my own observations as a perspective buyer.

My wife and I started house hunting this past Feb. and we fully expected to have purchased home by now. We made six trips down (we spent the last week of August doing nothing but house hunting) and were amazed at how many vacant resale’s in the $500k to $700k price range there were.

We set up a MLS search based on what WCPSS schools we felt were a better match for our family including the Wake Forrest, Apex and Cary areas. New listings are sent via e-mail. Recently a huge amount of houses have recently hit the market. I t seems that more listings are coming now than back in the spring, which is what I would have thought to be the busiest time for new listings.

We have also seen lots of price reductions and have had buyers contact our agent to accept offers that were left on the vine to rot months ago. All the while we were being told about how strong the market was by our “buyers” agent.

I wonder how much the problems WCPSS are affecting things. I know for us it has been a huge issue, and would think the same to be true for many families looking to relocate.

IMHO things are far from hot in the “prime” market.

We are actually now contemplating purchasing a town home instead since so many of them are on the market and they are so relatively inexpensive. Our thinking is that we can wait until the “perfect home” hits the market at a better price.

[sls76]

Originally Posted by dansdrive

I got the 9 months from relators back in the June time frame for Northern Wake County. I bet the number is even higher now. I do not know what the situation is in Southern Wake county where Cary is located. Your FMRealty numbers substantiates my claim. Since last June the numbers of listings went up 30%! WOW.

Up 30% (over 15 months) from probably a 2-3 month supply doesn't get you a 9 month supply. I've got to get out of this thread. Too many people hoping for the economy to tank so they can buy more house. Unemployment is still incredibly low, especially in this area and interest rates are historically on the low side. The market needs to adjust to the new credit environment, no doubt. The markets that came down like Tampa were up 100% in 3 years. Now they're down maybe 20%. So people who bought in 2002 are still up more than 50% in 5 years. Same thing with Northern Virginia. We owned a condo that doubled in about 5 years (sold in 1999 for $205,000 and sold for the third time in 2004 for close to $400,000). It's worth less now than at it's peak, but it's still worth over $400,000. This market never saw anything like that. Appreciation in Cary was rougly 30% over the last 5 years. A lot of decent jobs have moved to this area as companies have moved parts of their workforce out of the Northeast.

[dansdrive]

There is no question that thie area has not had the run up of many of the areas that is fueling some of the growth the triange is seeing but one cannot discount that fewer people will be migrating to the triangle which will put pressure on home prices. Some people cannot afford even a 10% drop in their home price. Just look at this article about the potential next mortgage disaster looming. Home many of these mortgages are to homeowners in the triangle? Could this be you? Negative Amortization and Interest Only: The Next Mortgage Bomb? - Seeking Alpha

[Dire Wolf]

If I was in the market (and wasn't too picky), I don't think I'd try to wait it out until spring. I'd start making a list of homes I've viewed that I'm interested in. I'd watch them and when the usual winter slowdown starts, I'd come in with some lowball offers. You'll eventually end up with great value.

[sls76]

I agree. We put 20% down and did a 20 year fixed. These loan programs were stupid. Still foreclosure rates in Raleigh are not high and I doubt they will be.

[dansdrive]

Good approach Dire, however that is exactly what will reduce house prices even further in the triangle. So why not wait it out and pick up a real bargin when the market bottoms out. The front end of the downturn is not the time to jump in, its time to observe as you suggested. Also, not sure what a low ball offer is, would that be 10%, 20%, or 40% of the asking price? Thanks,