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I would call a plumber first, and find out what is going on with the toilet.
Your toilet should easily drain all water that the water supply line delivers, even if it runs full bore, continually.
For some reason, it did not drain properly, and you need a plumber.
It was not clear in the OP, but this almost sounds like a tank leak. Either at the bolts holding the tank to the bowl or the water inlet. The rubber seals can break down over time and crack, which makes a leak up behind the bowl. More rarely, the connection between tank and bowl will leak or the tank will crack. Of course the fill valve float happily keeps adding water to make up any that is lost.
Of is is the case, it can be replaced by a good DIYer, otherwise, any plumber can diagnose and fix this.
It was not clear in the OP, but this almost sounds like a tank leak. Either at the bolts holding the tank to the bowl or the water inlet. The rubber seals can break down over time and crack, which makes a leak up behind the bowl. More rarely, the connection between tank and bowl will leak or the tank will crack. Of course the fill valve float happily keeps adding water to make up any that is lost.
Of is is the case, it can be replaced by a good DIYer, otherwise, any plumber can diagnose and fix this.
Agreed regarding that possibility of rubber seal failure or tank looseness, etc.
But...
The OP asked if replacing carpet pad is a DIY job and if they need an electrician. Neither is likely necessary.
Those inquiries tell me that the OP needs a professional plumber.
I personally would get a box cutter, cut out the carpet in the closet at the threshold, throw it away, and replace it with a piece of linoleum or some of those stick on carpet tiles (or a few squares of parquet flooring if desired). There is no real need to have carpet in a closet, unless you hope to store dust in it.
After you have fixed everthing, there is a stain-covering paint you can use on the ceiling. KILZ, or similar is like primer, so you may have to paint over it with the original ceiling paint.
Another common toilet leak is around the wax rings the toilet sits on. Replacing those often fixes the leaking water problem.
This. Depending on how bad the leak is/was you will likely need to cut open the ceiling drywall and dry things out underneath. You will probably want to call a water damage remediation company otherwise you will get mold growth.
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