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Old 11-08-2007, 06:59 AM
 
266 posts, read 590,070 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by urbywan View Post
I can't figure out what is going on down here, a builder I will use initials ROak is putting 12 new starts in a neighborhood and has not sold a one? Down Here in Fuquay..New model home, They have dropped the price point , closing costs small help. Many of the small local custom guys are like Frogs they are buried in the mud waiting this out not building a thing. don't get me wrong the neighborhood is in a great spot and done well, but its slow.... I look at the overall economic picture and like I just posted in a new thread above home equity lines are also an issue. I hate to have people think I am a doom and gloom guy, I am just a realist. Working for 30 years in an american east coast inner city will make you like that always watching your back and being STREETWISE!!!
Agreed. The point that I've been trying to make is that no one is going to watch out for you. While not growing up in the inner city, I was close enough to Philly and visited it often enough to know a little bit about being "streetwise". There are some colleagues of mine in areas like FL, NV, and CA (who are obviously more highly leveraged) that somehow believe that gubmint is going to step in and help them out. Since our national debt card is maxed out and we need the existing resources to fight the war on terrorism, that ain't very likely. Also, responsible homeowners and renter voters may retaliate by voting out many representatives from such a move.
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Old 11-08-2007, 07:04 AM
 
266 posts, read 590,070 times
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Originally Posted by urbywan View Post
We have some resales in the neighborhood that are now just about under what they purchased the house for 18 months ago. They will loose money when they pay the fees to get out IF the house sells. Why buy old when you can buy new at the same or lower price?
Exactly. That's why I was wondering if builders, as a courtesy to their existing customers, maintain comps by offering lots of goodies with closing such as a plasma tv, addition, hw floors, granite countertops, jacuzzi, etc. I don't find it to be despicable practice at all. Quite the contrary, it's just good business. As Vicki eloquently pointed out, you can't believe everything you read. That goes equally well for gauging median prices relating to how many buyer bonuses exist for new/existing sales.
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Old 11-08-2007, 07:43 AM
 
1,886 posts, read 4,806,674 times
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The local drop in sales volume is only a couple of months old, and many of the homes now sitting empty were early spring starts, before the bottom fell out.

18 months ago when things were on fire in Cary and Apex everybody thought Fuquay was the next big thing. Apex and Cary were too expensive so up go Lakestone Village and South Lakes.

My brother lives in Crooked Creek and the reason he moved there was to get a good sized lot (.35 acres), the kind he could not afford in Cary/Apex/ N.Raleigh. He puts up with a longer commute because he prefers living in what he considers "The Country". Now people go look at homes in Lakestone and South Lakes and what they are presented with is the Carpenter Village/Small Lot lifestyle except IT'S IN FUQUAY. For 400 grand. Guess what-you can buy a very nice resale in Carpenter Village or Scotts Mill for THE SAME MONEY if not LESS and not live 50 minutes from RDU. For 400 Grand you can buy a house just like the ones in Lakestone in Amberly.Whether you like Amberly or not, 99% of house shoppers would choose Amberly's location over Lakestone's. Let's see-10 minutes to Southpoint or 10 minutes to Main Street in Holly Springs. Either way I'm on a postage stamp, and in Fuquay the nicest restaurant is Applebee's. What do you think anybody relocating is going to favor?

The other thing to keep in mind is that there are always psychological price thresholds that impact markets. Right now $300K and $500K are very significant dividing lines in the market. People with 75k household income and 20% down need to be buying houses in the high 200s and people with 125k household income and 20% down need to stay under 500k to stay out of a jumbo mortgage. The high roller relocating from the NE with a ton of equity to throw at a house here don't exist right now. My house that was priced in the low 500s got very little activity until I relisted it at $499,900-all of a sudden it was like a switch was thrown. We had a ton of showings and closed 56 days after the relist. If I had a house that appeared to be worth $320k-ish and I needed to sell it-the answer is to price it @ $299,900 right now. A lot of the stagnant stuff in Fuquay sits in the low to mid 300s-in a down market that's too much money for Fuquay.

I like Fuquay, and this is not meant to be Fuquay-bashing. I have family there. But no one can argue the fact that the towns falling victim to the current situation are the towns trying to become something they are not. Maybe in 10 years if 540 ever gets down that far and people keep coming places like Lakestone and South Lakes will be viable, but right now Fuquay is still Fuquay and they just don't fit IMO.
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Old 11-08-2007, 08:31 AM
 
31,679 posts, read 40,959,250 times
Reputation: 14424
Default This is written through the eyes

Quote:
Originally Posted by Funky Chicken View Post
The local drop in sales volume is only a couple of months old, and many of the homes now sitting empty were early spring starts, before the bottom fell out.

18 months ago when things were on fire in Cary and Apex everybody thought Fuquay was the next big thing. Apex and Cary were too expensive so up go Lakestone Village and South Lakes.

My brother lives in Crooked Creek and the reason he moved there was to get a good sized lot (.35 acres), the kind he could not afford in Cary/Apex/ N.Raleigh. He puts up with a longer commute because he prefers living in what he considers "The Country". Now people go look at homes in Lakestone and South Lakes and what they are presented with is the Carpenter Village/Small Lot lifestyle except IT'S IN FUQUAY. For 400 grand. Guess what-you can buy a very nice resale in Carpenter Village or Scotts Mill for THE SAME MONEY if not LESS and not live 50 minutes from RDU. For 400 Grand you can buy a house just like the ones in Lakestone in Amberly.Whether you like Amberly or not, 99% of house shoppers would choose Amberly's location over Lakestone's. Let's see-10 minutes to Southpoint or 10 minutes to Main Street in Holly Springs. Either way I'm on a postage stamp, and in Fuquay the nicest restaurant is Applebee's. What do you think anybody relocating is going to favor?

The other thing to keep in mind is that there are always psychological price thresholds that impact markets. Right now $300K and $500K are very significant dividing lines in the market. People with 75k household income and 20% down need to be buying houses in the high 200s and people with 125k household income and 20% down need to stay under 500k to stay out of a jumbo mortgage. The high roller relocating from the NE with a ton of equity to throw at a house here don't exist right now. My house that was priced in the low 500s got very little activity until I relisted it at $499,900-all of a sudden it was like a switch was thrown. We had a ton of showings and closed 56 days after the relist. If I had a house that appeared to be worth $320k-ish and I needed to sell it-the answer is to price it @ $299,900 right now. A lot of the stagnant stuff in Fuquay sits in the low to mid 300s-in a down market that's too much money for Fuquay.

I like Fuquay, and this is not meant to be Fuquay-bashing. I have family there. But no one can argue the fact that the towns falling victim to the current situation are the towns trying to become something they are not. Maybe in 10 years if 540 ever gets down that far and people keep coming places like Lakestone and South Lakes will be viable, but right now Fuquay is still Fuquay and they just don't fit IMO.
This is written as if it came through the eyes of someone wanting to relocate to the Triangle from Bubble Country. It is verrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrr accurate. As one about to finally settle in the Triangle it is stated the way most of us up here would see things today. We still want to come but our equity nest egg ain't what it use to be. We will be reluctant to take on more debt then needed and if we had to provide high value to our buyers up here we will be purchasing with current value down there in mind. We will not be anticipating appreciation or assuming what will be. We have and are learning our lesson. Dollar for dollar I have purchased a very nice home at current value with affordability. The days of selling up here and buying a mansion in the Triangle are very limited if not over.
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Old 11-08-2007, 09:06 AM
 
709 posts, read 931,320 times
Reputation: 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Funky Chicken View Post
The local drop in sales volume is only a couple of months old, and many of the homes now sitting empty were early spring starts, before the bottom fell out.

18 months ago when things were on fire in Cary and Apex everybody thought Fuquay was the next big thing. Apex and Cary were too expensive so up go Lakestone Village and South Lakes.

My brother lives in Crooked Creek and the reason he moved there was to get a good sized lot (.35 acres), the kind he could not afford in Cary/Apex/ N.Raleigh. He puts up with a longer commute because he prefers living in what he considers "The Country". Now people go look at homes in Lakestone and South Lakes and what they are presented with is the Carpenter Village/Small Lot lifestyle except IT'S IN FUQUAY. For 400 grand. Guess what-you can buy a very nice resale in Carpenter Village or Scotts Mill for THE SAME MONEY if not LESS and not live 50 minutes from RDU. For 400 Grand you can buy a house just like the ones in Lakestone in Amberly.Whether you like Amberly or not, 99% of house shoppers would choose Amberly's location over Lakestone's. Let's see-10 minutes to Southpoint or 10 minutes to Main Street in Holly Springs. Either way I'm on a postage stamp, and in Fuquay the nicest restaurant is Applebee's. What do you think anybody relocating is going to favor?

The other thing to keep in mind is that there are always psychological price thresholds that impact markets. Right now $300K and $500K are very significant dividing lines in the market. People with 75k household income and 20% down need to be buying houses in the high 200s and people with 125k household income and 20% down need to stay under 500k to stay out of a jumbo mortgage. The high roller relocating from the NE with a ton of equity to throw at a house here don't exist right now. My house that was priced in the low 500s got very little activity until I relisted it at $499,900-all of a sudden it was like a switch was thrown. We had a ton of showings and closed 56 days after the relist. If I had a house that appeared to be worth $320k-ish and I needed to sell it-the answer is to price it @ $299,900 right now. A lot of the stagnant stuff in Fuquay sits in the low to mid 300s-in a down market that's too much money for Fuquay.

I like Fuquay, and this is not meant to be Fuquay-bashing. I have family there. But no one can argue the fact that the towns falling victim to the current situation are the towns trying to become something they are not. Maybe in 10 years if 540 ever gets down that far and people keep coming places like Lakestone and South Lakes will be viable, but right now Fuquay is still Fuquay and they just don't fit IMO.

All I have to say here is that my builder who built my fantastic house is 80K LESS here in Fuquay than in amberly and Holly springs! He does not build down here anymore though. Why, because of the downturn. Now for what is in my place here in Fuquay the same house in amberly is 100K higher. We have been thru every home that is completed at the villages in amberly. Yes a real good spot, but again they will be building there for a very long time. I still do not and did not want to pay over 390K for a house in NORTH CAROLINA! We paid 330K which when I bought last june of 06 I thought I was spending 30K TOO MUCH, I said to my wife if the market gets soft which we saw in NJ when we sold our old place for a ridiculus number that we could lose 30 K IF WE HAD TO MOVE. Well we could stay here forever! So the downturn means not much. No mortgage really to speak of. So I watch people who have to sell and are now pricing at 299 just under 300K because it is FUQUAY. I like the quirkyness of the place I can be in cary in 15 mins downtown raleigh in 20 chapel hill in 45. So what, restuarants are awful all over the triangle, the good ones are well over priced, I cook better than most so yes the applebees is not my place except for the cute bartenders.
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Old 11-08-2007, 09:53 AM
 
1,886 posts, read 4,806,674 times
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You are right-the downturn may not mean anything to you if you are happy. You don't need to sell and Fuquay works for you.

The fact remains that the typical relocating northerner of the past 3 years with a bunch of equity from a bubblicious sale didn't start their house hunt in Fuquay. They may have ended up there and found a place that makes them happy, but Fuquay has been at a crossroads the past couple of years and the down market has been less kind to Fuquay than to Triangle towns that are not in transition and trying to change their image.

3 of the 12 people I work with live in Fuquay. Their conversations about the town go like this-

"I can't wait until Fuquay gets a _______ (fill in the business establishment of your choice).
"I went to Wal-Mart on after church on Sunday and it was full of Mexicans".
"Sorry I'm late-the traffic on Sunset Lake/Johnson Pond/Ten-Ten/Kildaire was ridiculous this morning."

Everybody I know wants Fuquay to morph into the next "hot" triangle town,but Fuquay was a fall back/second tier choice for most of the people moving here from somewhere else with a pile of money over the last couple of years. Now that those people aren't coming anymore in nearly the same numbers and the Cary/Apex/North Raleigh Markets have plenty of inventory and prices are level or falling depending on who you talk to, Fuquay is poised for a bigger fall because of where and what it is.

Just calling it like I see it. Not in ANY WAY meant as a slam on you or the town you live in.
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Old 11-08-2007, 10:06 AM
 
709 posts, read 931,320 times
Reputation: 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Funky Chicken View Post
You are right-the downturn may not mean anything to you if you are happy. You don't need to sell and Fuquay works for you.

The fact remains that the typical relocating northerner of the past 3 years with a bunch of equity from a bubblicious sale didn't start their house hunt in Fuquay. They may have ended up there and found a place that makes them happy, but Fuquay has been at a crossroads the past couple of years and the down market has been less kind to Fuquay than to Triangle towns that are not in transition and trying to change their image.

3 of the 12 people I work with live in Fuquay. Their conversations about the town go like this-

"I can't wait until Fuquay gets a _______ (fill in the business establishment of your choice).
"I went to Wal-Mart on after church on Sunday and it was full of Mexicans".
"Sorry I'm late-the traffic on Sunset Lake/Johnson Pond/Ten-Ten/Kildaire was ridiculous this morning."

Everybody I know wants Fuquay to morph into the next "hot" triangle town,but Fuquay was a fall back/second tier choice for most of the people moving here from somewhere else with a pile of money over the last couple of years. Now that those people aren't coming anymore in nearly the same numbers and the Cary/Apex/North Raleigh Markets have plenty of inventory and prices are level or falling depending on who you talk to, Fuquay is poised for a bigger fall because of where and what it is.

Just calling it like I see it. Not in ANY WAY meant as a slam on you or the town you live in.

We bought here only because of the wifes family. The Mexicans and the walmart, how true, but I like these guys had a painting crew here yesterday fantastic guys a great job. The town however is not home to a poor population. In fact Fuquay really has no run down area. Yes fill in the blanks, You know holly Springs has really NOTHING either. It really is one big suburban mess around here. I time my commutes, I get into cary and ITB three days a week and make it to each place 20 miles away at 7am in 35 mins al the time. I NEVER go down Sunset lake Rd. I use back roads and the only slow part is the light a yates Mill and Tryon.

Anyway I could live in a tent, spent 50 years in the northeast I see all the same mistakes being made here that were made up there. Its great to see that even the southerners do things as badly as we did.

Fuquay, yes indeed, I wonder how long they will be building in south lakes, that would scare the you know what out of me. My neighborhood only has about 14 lots left then its done. I would hate to be in a place where they will be building new what 1000 homes??
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Old 11-08-2007, 10:17 AM
 
266 posts, read 590,070 times
Reputation: 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by urbywan View Post
All I have to say here is that my builder who built my fantastic house is 80K LESS here in Fuquay than in amberly and Holly springs! He does not build down here anymore though. Why, because of the downturn. Now for what is in my place here in Fuquay the same house in amberly is 100K higher. We have been thru every home that is completed at the villages in amberly. Yes a real good spot, but again they will be building there for a very long time. I still do not and did not want to pay over 390K for a house in NORTH CAROLINA! We paid 330K which when I bought last june of 06 I thought I was spending 30K TOO MUCH, I said to my wife if the market gets soft which we saw in NJ when we sold our old place for a ridiculus number that we could lose 30 K IF WE HAD TO MOVE. Well we could stay here forever! So the downturn means not much. No mortgage really to speak of. So I watch people who have to sell and are now pricing at 299 just under 300K because it is FUQUAY. I like the quirkyness of the place I can be in cary in 15 mins downtown raleigh in 20 chapel hill in 45. So what, restuarants are awful all over the triangle, the good ones are well over priced, I cook better than most so yes the applebees is not my place except for the cute bartenders.
Another article from the News & Observer talking about homes (in Cary and NE Raleigh) not being able to be sold after $12K taken off and subsequently going to the rental market.

newsobserver.com | Homes for rent: they didn't sell (http://www.newsobserver.com/business/story/764787.html - broken link)
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Old 11-08-2007, 04:03 PM
 
709 posts, read 931,320 times
Reputation: 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frudy McRomson View Post
Another article from the News & Observer talking about homes (in Cary and NE Raleigh) not being able to be sold after $12K taken off and subsequently going to the rental market.

newsobserver.com | Homes for rent: they didn't sell (http://www.newsobserver.com/business/story/764787.html - broken link)
Oh being a landlord. What fun!
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Old 11-08-2007, 04:25 PM
 
354 posts, read 1,216,206 times
Reputation: 90
Well, I just got back from the triangle. All I can say is that the Triangle is really laid back place.

Well , I must add, most of that impression was gained by visiting the sales center of 6 different communities. There was absolutely nobody there. Not a soul! All the buyers must have been taking it easy on the weekend. I am sure it will be back to a healthy market by next weekend.

This should be good for another couple of hits on my reputation.
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