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Statistical data for what will happen is unavailable. As students of economics we both know that the market is no longer driven by what would be historical market factors. Is the stock market driven by what 20 years were the drivers? No. Who knows what the mindset of the public will be tomorrow or the next week or the next week. Time will tell and we will have data for what did happen and we will debate the new tomorrow. The Raleigh market is nothing like the Maryland market. 1.6% price drop? The market goes up by that in one day. Lots of folks will make more in the market over a year then the amount of the price drop in their house. Especially at the higher end price wise and age of homeowner .
I agree that there is no data for what will happen in the future, but we have data about what is happening right now, and we can learn from what had happened in the past.
Currently, the financial market lacks liquidity, which is the driving force for lending. Real-estate-packed-security buyers are spooked, and they are not buying as much as they usually do. The value of the dollar is very low, and consumer sentiments are low. Non-conforming loan rate jumped one full point overnight few weeks ago. Even after the fed. reduced the short-term interest rate by half a point, lenders didn't follow suite and no one reduced the mortgage rate.
I am not asking people to bring a full statistical report to prove their case; I am just simply trying to make people think about their decision and how they come to the conclusion.
We both know that this topic has come up many times in the past weeks, and we both know where we stand. However, I am just tired of people posting all rosy pictures and the cup-half-full mentality and they have no knowledge to back it up with.
Vicki, I posted my reasons why in another thread and will not repeat here. However as my house in the Triangle gets closer to completion and the pictures get better and better I am beginning to hear more people say " wow you got all that for how much?" "Wow we can sell our house for less here and still buy a gorgeous house there". Get ready you could be real busy this spring. I know just conjecture but isn't that so much of what life has become about?
TuborgP, I wanna see the pictures!!!
Now WHO was it that said all Realtors always "predict" a stable market?
FYI...I am not PREDICTING. What I am saying is based on the FACT that I've lived here for the last 30 years and I'm in my 6th house. I lived in one house for 6 months, didn't like the area, sold it and still made money after using a Realtor (before I was in Real Estate). EVERY HOUSE I've sold was after living in it for 4-5 years. Always made money. Always lived in North Raleigh or Cary. Never felt that living ITB made sense to ME. I like NEW houses.
I'm NOT saying that I KNOW what the future holds. What I am saying is that I don't think we'll see housing going down in price because we just never had that bubble. If I tell you that houses have ALWAYS appreciated here again, I'm going to scream at my keyboard!
I guess there are ALWAYS going to people that have such negative thoughts and negative opinions and want to spread them around. You know the old saying, "misery loves company". There are many people that will wait for the price of housing to go down. I hope to hear from those people a year from now. My house will be worth another 6% and you'll be waiting for the next "pricing decrease"!!!
Only if you are not laughing.... as was my true intent.
"However, I am just tired of people posting all rosy pictures and the cup-half-full mentality..."
But Mike, I AM laughing! I do think I may be guilty of being a "half full" person but if I had a choice, I'd prefer my positive side over a negative side.
Now having said THAT...I'm not all positive on my comments about the housing market. I just don't agree with anyone that says the housing market in this area is going down. I see the houses that sell. I see the ones that don't. I know the areas that the houses sell in fast and the areas that the houses sell much slower. Its hard to AVERAGE everything. There are homes under $275,000 in Harrington Grove that sell in 8 days. There are homes in FV that take 6 months. So if you live in HG, you would think the housing market is great. If you live in FV, you will believe the housing market is on the decline. But you don't SEE this like I see it, every day.
Its a retired banker and friend who track all of the housing/mortgage related phenomena with a slightly morbid flair. THe comments section houses rants from some serious doomsters.
Please apologize me to bring up the issue( no personal attack please). All I want a know a good time to buy a house. I am very new to this forum(born yesterday). This forum is very useful for many things.
I really don't know what is 1.6% ( I guess, It could be annual home sale %)
I think a lot depends on the price point of the home your looking for.
A while back VickieR had posted some home inventory data, it did not seem to that inventory was hanging around, except maybe in homes over $600k.
The triangle is one of the more stable real estate markets. If you need a home for your family to live in and you'll be there for a while now is a great time to buy a home.
If your wanting to flip for a quick buck I would think again.
Good luck to you on what ever you decide to do I wish you the best!
Its a retired banker and friend who track all of the housing/mortgage related phenomena with a slightly morbid flair. THe comments section houses rants from some serious doomsters.
Thank you for those great links.
However, living in Wayland, you should have nothing to worry about. I grew up in Newton, but couldn't afford to buy the relatively modest house in which I grew up (and while I have very little savings, I have a very good salary).
I think the homes that will suffer the least will be the ones on the market that are affordable for many of the people who have lived and worked here in the Triangle for a number of years. It's just a guess, of course, but I think houses that are going for $300K & less will remain fairly stable for the next year or so. We may even see demand rise in that price bracket, but I would honestly be surprised if values increased more than a couple percentage points..
I agree with this wholeheartedly - probably because I live 'next door' to you in the Farms, and have seen how fast houses are selling here, and how much the prices have gone up in just 18 months.
It will be interesting to see what the two luxury condos will do to housing prices.
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