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To the poster who said not to worry in Wayland---I don't know. MA home prices are falling and the market is far from stable. That actually puts us in a quandry. We sold (had to sell because of other looming financial disasters) last Feb and moved to a rental for what we hoped was less than a year with what looked like one of a few offers in Raleigh to come through. Well, they didn't--one didn't relo, one offered a job in NYC instead, etc. So here we are, still in MA, still in a rental and wondering WTF to do! (will that Acronymn pass muster?)
We're toying with buying here again. A smaller place, since oldest son will be graduating HS in 2009. But, then what? It's a great buyer's market but a terrible seller's market. We'd probably lose money on that house in 12-18 months.
So what's this got to do with Raleigh? I don't know, except I'd feel a LOT more comfortable doing this in Raleigh vs. Mass. Although I have to say I think the housing slump elsewhere WILL affect prices in NC.
I'm very sorry to hear about your recent financial issues. The sellers in Raleigh backed out of the sales due to no relo and another from a NYC job offer? I wasn't quite understanding the issue, especially with the latter case.
If you believe that house prices in MA are still going to come down in the next 12-18 months and you're unsure as to whether you'll move down here, what's to contemplate? Renting is the perfect fit for your family right now. You'll remain mobile and ready to pounce on a really good deal in the next 2-3 years.
*if* your family has any debt right now, please consider taking care of it immediately while short term rates are artificially low. Deutsche Bank is preparing to report $10B losses in credit and Merrill, et al are reporting further mega losses. Most of the credit card lines we hold are bundled as securities to foreign investors and that ticking time bomb could be on its last seconds. Foreigners will not hold onto depreciating dollar denominated assets with alarmingly high default rates paying only (insert LIBOR + x basis points rate here).
I just looked at our old townhouse that we sold last year which is back on the market (foreclosure). They bank just dropped the price another $25k.
We bought it for $210k in Feb 2004, sold it for $345k in April 2006, and now the bank is asking $219k. It's come full circle and I'm glad we got in and out when we did. This is what is NOT going to happen in Raleigh, since housing prices didn't go up 70% in 2 years. We might be little stagnent for a while, but what is happening in some other areas of the country is crazy.
Frudy, both job offers were for me, in NC. The first one had no relo and at the time, we were not willing to invest $15K in that particular job (and I'd make the same decision today). The second job offer came through but though I interviewed in Durham, they had to shift some internal folks around and offered me the same position in their NYC office. So here we are, still in MA. The problem with renting is that in order to keep the kids in the same schools, we need to live in the same town and there's little to no rental inventory here. We just don't like where we are, but may have to put up with it, I guess. We'd really like to leave (go to NC or back "home" to the PNW) after my oldest graduates--but that assumes we have something come through on the job front. Hence we scratch our heads over whether or not to buy. We figure another 12 mos will have our credit cleaned up enough to qualify for a decent loan. Our financial disasters really hit us hard.
Waterboy, I wish we had made some money on our house in Fairfax! We bought it in 1995, sold it in 1997 and basically came out even. The market was very ho-hum back then.
Our house in Seattle. Yikes. We bought it in 1990 and sold it in 1995 and it had doubled in price. It sold in about 45 min. I just looked online and it's for sale again. We bought it for $135, sold it for close to $280 and now it's on the market for $669. It's a 3 bed, 1 ba ranch (we finished the basement, updated the kitchen, bathrooms, etc.--dont' know what's been done since then). But it's got a gorgeous view of Puget Sound.
Frudy, both job offers were for me, in NC. The first one had no relo and at the time, we were not willing to invest $15K in that particular job (and I'd make the same decision today). The second job offer came through but though I interviewed in Durham, they had to shift some internal folks around and offered me the same position in their NYC office. So here we are, still in MA. The problem with renting is that in order to keep the kids in the same schools, we need to live in the same town and there's little to no rental inventory here. We just don't like where we are, but may have to put up with it, I guess. We'd really like to leave (go to NC or back "home" to the PNW) after my oldest graduates--but that assumes we have something come through on the job front. Hence we scratch our heads over whether or not to buy. We figure another 12 mos will have our credit cleaned up enough to qualify for a decent loan. Our financial disasters really hit us hard.
Waterboy, I wish we had made some money on our house in Fairfax! We bought it in 1995, sold it in 1997 and basically came out even. The market was very ho-hum back then.
Our house in Seattle. Yikes. We bought it in 1990 and sold it in 1995 and it had doubled in price. It sold in about 45 min. I just looked online and it's for sale again. We bought it for $135, sold it for close to $280 and now it's on the market for $669. It's a 3 bed, 1 ba ranch (we finished the basement, updated the kitchen, bathrooms, etc.--dont' know what's been done since then). But it's got a gorgeous view of Puget Sound.
Oh, if your credit isn't perfect, please don't consider purchasing a house right now. Mortgage brokers will promise all kinds of ridiculous products just so they can lure you in, then add junk fees and spike rates on you at closing. Better deals ARE indeed coming, plus assuming you have the equity to put down a sizable down payment, you are in like Flynn.
All signs point to timing the market in the next 2-3 years minimum. Just food for thought.
Parts of Seattle, a square mile in Baltimore, and I think zip code 10012 are the only markets doing well now. Then there's the rest.
Our credit's not perfect and thanks to needing to use a large part of our equity to satisfy a second mortgage (we had to live on something for all those years!) and credit card and other debts (see previous sentence), we've used a lot of the equity we pulled out of the house to get ourselves as close to debt free as possible. But we're just not able to save money at the rate we want because it's so expensive here. We own two houses in Portland and will probably sell one shortly and use some of the proceeds there to add to our down payment. But that's also about a year down the road.
The guy t hat bought our house here in MA (we had to sell quickly to stay ahead of the bank), bought it for rock bottom market value, thinking he'd flip it. He made some of the repairs and touch-ups it needed to show but he priced it very aggressively. Too aggressively. And he has not lowered the price since May, when he put it on the market. We're actually thinking about approaching him to come back as renters for a year. I think this guy was new to "flipping" and carrying that mortgage has got to be hurting him. My husband thinks we should make some sort of offer on the house but then that puts us back in this sinking market with a house that we will pay $250K more for than what we bought it for. I'd rather give him the $2500 rent that we're spending now. I just haven't figured out the best way to approach him on it. We had a decent business relationship in the beginning---he let us stay in the house 3 months with no rent payments but then it was another 1.5 months before we could move into our rental and I know he was getting antsy. We might have burned that bridge.
Then again, if someone came to me in that situation and offered a way for me to stem my losses, I'd listen!
I guess we need to mull it over this weekend. It's probably going to be me who approaches him, if we decide to do that. I'm the better negotiator.
Whats very interesting and telling is that this thread has evolved into a very inciteful inter bubble conversation with clarity and differentiation based on location. It helps to highlight the relative uniqueness of the Triangle market.
This has been an interesting thread I think. I say I think because on one side some are saying we are slipping into a period of negative growth in both equity and home price. While the other side says its normal for this time of the year and as always its location, location, location. Things will pick up in the spring. We certainly know based know that in the spring Gas prices will be higher. At $60 Per barrel of oil last spring we saw $3.30 per gallon of gas, if the $96 per barrel hold that would say gas will be up about 62% which would make gas about $5.63 per gallon. This is certainly take a bite out of everyone's budgets. OUCH!
Seems to be both sides are maybe correct. Without location any house in any market is less desirable than the ones with location so to me that makes it average price neutral. However, if funding that house in the great location tightens up it reduces the amount of potential bidders which will work to keep the homes value from rising above inflation.
Now given all the press about house prices falling, mortage defaults, loss of tax revenue for cities/towns with all the foreclosures (looming problem on the horizon), and federal bailouts does it not make total sense to be buying/selling in this area that has not seen the rapid appreciation, foreclosures, and real estate actions the rest of the country is seeing?
IMHO I can't think of a better place to ride out the US real estate bubble then right here in the triangle. **
** Unless you are over your head in debt from your resetted ARM, new car payment, pool, extra double detached garage, and furniture store interest payments coming due in 2009, and those 3 out of 5 credit cards that are maxed out to pay for the items listed above.
Yikes, you guys are making me think twice about building. We will be moving to Raleigh this summer. Trying to consider all options, buy existing home, build, go out to the burbs or ITB. Husband already working downtown so lots of options but don't want to start building a home and have the bottom fail out. I will be looking ITB next week but after living in the suburbs for many years I'm not sure - I think I need a garage and square footage is a real issue for my husband - but it sounds safer than unknown newer neighborhoods. Any thoughts on this - Yes I do remember the rule about location, location, location but what if I'm not that familiar with the area and after two dates with my real estate person I'm not so sure. Seems to be alot of houses on the market in Cary, FV, Holly Springs ect. and building is gonna cost me more. Since schools change out that way what do you gauge your value on.
You cannot so easily correlate local prices for gasoline to global prices for barrels of oil.
Very true. just used a straight line correlation between oil and gas prices in the triangle in spring 07. Even the wizards in Las Vegas can't predict what gas prices will be in spring 08.
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