home price drop/increase especially near RTP (Raleigh, Cary: mortgage, credit)

[snowsun]

what would you predict about home price for atleast next six month - 1 year?
will it increase or drop? I heard from my friend, he said " it may drop 1.6%. is it true? Any Guess?

[DanielChang]

"the sky is falling! the sky is falling!"

[sazhaka]

sorry 1.6% , may be the mortgage , not the house price

[dansdrive]

Hard to answer that question. To many factors come into play. Are you talking about an average drop? A lot depends on the area the house is in, the size of the house, is it new construction or an existing house just to many a few. One thing is for sure some houses will go down and some will go up more than and less than the 1.6% you mentioned. There are a lot of houses on the market and this is a slower time of the year for home sales so that alone would say there will be pressure on home prices and if you factor in the state of the housing market in major areas people are coming from it says people are coming with less money to purchase their home here. Fortunately this areas home prices have not increased dramatically over the years so the areas housing IMHO will not make any type of dramatic double digit drop on average. Every housing market goes through some sort of adjustment and we maybe seeing ours over the next several months.

[Marzen]

I saw a newer development in Cary Governors row on N Harrison that was originally selling from the 800s now the sign says from 600 to 700.

Looks like 20% has come off a whole lot of homes in the triangle the past couple of months. 400K homes are listing more like 320 to 350, who knows it still seems as though the area is holding the price points better than other areas. People want to be here, which is not the situation in many parts of the country. I mean how many people are sayin I want to move to Long Island or Detroit?

[VickiR]

Attention Realtors:

Today, NAR issued the following news release. The Raleigh section is in blue.


NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

The Voice For Real Estate®



500 New Jersey Avenue, NW

Washington DC 20001


PUBLIC AFFAIRS



For Further Information Contact:

Walter Molony, 202/383-1177

wmolony@realtors.org




IMPROVEMENT IN MORTGAGE MARKET BODES WELL FOR HOUSING IN 2008

WASHINGTON (October 10, 2007) – Conditions in the mortgage market are improving for consumers, which should help to release some pent-up demand in early 2008, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of RealtorsÒ.

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, notes that widening credit availability will help turn around home sales. “Conforming loans are abundantly available at historically favorable mortgage rates. Pricing has steadily improved on jumbo mortgages since the August credit crunch, and FHA loans are replacing subprime mortgages,” he said.

Yun said it’s important to place the current housing market in perspective, and that 2007 will be the fifth highest year on record for existing-home sales. “Although sales are off from an unsustainable peak in 2005, there is a historically high level of home sales taking place this year – a lot of people are, in fact, buying homes,” he said. “One out of 16 American households is buying a home this year. The speculative excesses have been removed from the market and home sales are returning to fundamentally healthy levels, while prices remain near record highs, reflecting favorable mortgage rates and positive job gains.”

He emphasized all real estate is local with naturally large variations within a given area. “Markets like Austin, Salt Lake City and Raleigh have been outperforming recently and will continue to do well next year,” Yun said. “Other areas like Denver and Wichita will likely move up in the price growth rankings due to very positive local economic developments.”

Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.78 million in 2007 and then rise to 6.12 million next year, in contrast with 6.48 million in 2006. New-home sales are forecast at 804,000 this year and 752,000 in 2008, down from 1.05 million in 2006; a recovery for new homes will be delayed until next spring.

“A cutback in housing construction is a positive sign for the market because it will help lower inventory and firm up home prices,” Yun said. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are likely to total 1.37 million in 2007 and 1.24 million next year, down from 1.80 million in 2006.

Vicki

[JohnE1000]

Originally Posted by snowsun

what would you predict about home price for atleast next six month - 1 year?
will it increase or drop? I heard from my friend, he said " it may drop 1.6%. is it true? Any Guess?

The home prices have been dropping for few months now, and it is going to go down for a while. I predict the prices will go down until next summer. If the economy slips into a recession, it could take years before recovery.

The subprime problem is not local, and the real estate market is not local as some might argue. I am talking about the general state of the market, not specific zip code, subdivision, neighborhood, or a single house.

Anyone who understands economics and aware of the current situation and have different interpretation has to prove his case on sound economic and statistical data. If he doesn't or couldn’t, then he either an ignorant or a fool.

[Marzen]

Originally Posted by VickiR

Attention Realtors:

Today, NAR issued the following news release. The Raleigh section is in blue.


NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

The Voice For Real Estate®



500 New Jersey Avenue, NW

Washington DC 20001


PUBLIC AFFAIRS



For Further Information Contact:

Walter Molony, 202/383-1177

wmolony@realtors.org




IMPROVEMENT IN MORTGAGE MARKET BODES WELL FOR HOUSING IN 2008

WASHINGTON (October 10, 2007) – Conditions in the mortgage market are improving for consumers, which should help to release some pent-up demand in early 2008, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of RealtorsÒ.

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, notes that widening credit availability will help turn around home sales. “Conforming loans are abundantly available at historically favorable mortgage rates. Pricing has steadily improved on jumbo mortgages since the August credit crunch, and FHA loans are replacing subprime mortgages,” he said.

Yun said it’s important to place the current housing market in perspective, and that 2007 will be the fifth highest year on record for existing-home sales. “Although sales are off from an unsustainable peak in 2005, there is a historically high level of home sales taking place this year – a lot of people are, in fact, buying homes,” he said. “One out of 16 American households is buying a home this year. The speculative excesses have been removed from the market and home sales are returning to fundamentally healthy levels, while prices remain near record highs, reflecting favorable mortgage rates and positive job gains.”

He emphasized all real estate is local with naturally large variations within a given area. “Markets like Austin, Salt Lake City and Raleigh have been outperforming recently and will continue to do well next year,” Yun said. “Other areas like Denver and Wichita will likely move up in the price growth rankings due to very positive local economic developments.”

Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.78 million in 2007 and then rise to 6.12 million next year, in contrast with 6.48 million in 2006. New-home sales are forecast at 804,000 this year and 752,000 in 2008, down from 1.05 million in 2006; a recovery for new homes will be delayed until next spring.

“A cutback in housing construction is a positive sign for the market because it will help lower inventory and firm up home prices,” Yun said. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are likely to total 1.37 million in 2007 and 1.24 million next year, down from 1.80 million in 2006.

Vicki

People ultimatly have to live someplace, people want to move to the raleigh area, I think housing will and should be a place to LIVE not an investment or the means of getting rich in 2 years. Or should a house be a piggy bank with using equity to buy STUFF!! Pretty crazy those foreclosure stories ,take a read at this one!!
How to lose your home in a few easy steps - Mortgage Mess - MSNBC.com

Enjoy!

[MikeJaquish]

Originally Posted by Marzen

I saw a newer development in Cary Governors row on N Harrison that was originally selling from the 800s now the sign says from 600 to 700.

Looks like 20% has come off a whole lot of homes in the triangle the past couple of months. 400K homes are listing more like 320 to 350, who knows it still seems as though the area is holding the price points better than other areas. People want to be here, which is not the situation in many parts of the country. I mean how many people are sayin I want to move to Long Island or Detroit?

Governors Row has 10 homes under contract.
I believe all but one are Presales,

$604,000LP.
A Spec at $689,900LP
$709,900LP
$738,000
$739,900
$757,500
$760,000
$781,000
$810,000
$829,000

Spec homes, i.e., "Active" Listings, prices can range significantly as upgrades are added and deleted during construction.
Only one of the "Active" listings shows a price decrease, with some showing as much as a 5% increase.
"Active" listings vary from $674,900 to 799,900, spread evenly through that range.

The "Active" listings date as much as 212 days back, to March of this year. Of course, I would expect to have better bargaining on an "Active" inventory home, but this doesn't look like huge price cutting on product for John Wieland by any means.

[VickiR]

Originally Posted by JohnE1000

The home prices have been dropping for few months now, and it is going to go down for a while. I predict the prices will go down until next summer. If the economy slips into a recession, it could take years before recovery.

The subprime problem is not local, and the real estate market is not local as some might argue. I am talking about the general state of the market, not specific zip code, subdivision, neighborhood, or a single house.

Anyone who understands economics and aware of the current situation and have different interpretation has to prove his case on sound economic and statistical data. If he doesn't or couldn’t, then he either an ignorant or a fool.

Now, Now, John...name calling is not acceptable here.

I must say that I'm AMAZED that you "predict" what the housing market in Raleigh will do. The part that amazes me is that you are not FROM this area and have no EXPERIENCE in this area and no matter how many times you have been informed that this area has not seen a bubble and therefore we have no reason for the "bubble" to burst, you insist on stating your opinions. Yes, yes, I know. Opinions are like A+++++++. Everyone has one.

My questions to you are...have you bought a house? Can you afford to buy a house? Have you ever owned a home? How long have you been in this area? I ask this because sometimes when people can't have something, they speak negatively about it. You know, the sour grapes theme. So, I'm curious. I publically acknowledge that I'm a Real Estate Agent, therefore, you know my credentials. I'd be interested in hearing what yours are.

Thanks!

Vicki