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Old 11-12-2015, 08:59 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
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A new journal article published by RTI is about our own county and (infamous) school district. It concludes that property values may be lower by 1.5-2% (OK, that's trivial) in areas with only Year-Round school options.

Mostly, it's neat that Wake county is discussed in a peer-reviewed journal article, and gives some interesting info about the school assignments, which those who often ask about the schools might find handy.
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Old 11-12-2015, 09:57 AM
 
Location: Morrisville, NC
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Interesting. I wonder how much has to do with areas inside the beltline? Do they have year round options? The newer growth areas have mostly year round.
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Old 11-12-2015, 12:06 PM
 
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is that even statistically significant? Interesting read though.
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Old 11-12-2015, 01:16 PM
 
Location: Chapel Hill, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trumpetbutt View Post
is that even statistically significant? Interesting read though.
According to the brief, it is statistically significant.

"Our preferred estimates suggest year-round calendars are associated with a statistically significant price penalty of between one and a half to two percent."
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Old 11-12-2015, 02:21 PM
 
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Important to remember that even statistical significance is not proof of a causal relationship.

Even if it were found that EVERY area with only year-round options had EXACTLY an X percent lower property value than areas with other options, it does not provide proof that the school options are the single factor influencing the property value, or that they are influencing the property values at all. There could be factors outside of the study that are the actual root cause, the property values could be a mere side effect.

Non-profit research efforts often become research for the sake of research; providing interesting reading perhaps, but not necessarily providing data that is meaningful toward the original goal of the project.
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Old 11-12-2015, 04:33 PM
 
Location: Downtown Raleigh
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Agreed, keadlez. And even if there is a causal relationship, it could go in the other direction.
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Old 11-12-2015, 04:51 PM
 
Location: NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by keadlez View Post
Important to remember that even statistical significance is not proof of a causal relationship.

Even if it were found that EVERY area with only year-round options had EXACTLY an X percent lower property value than areas with other options, it does not provide proof that the school options are the single factor influencing the property value, or that they are influencing the property values at all. There could be factors outside of the study that are the actual root cause, the property values could be a mere side effect.

Non-profit research efforts often become research for the sake of research; providing interesting reading perhaps, but not necessarily providing data that is meaningful toward the original goal of the project.
Exactly. One has no idea whether this would hold if the entire "experiment" was repeated every year. The result may simply have been seen this one time.
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Old 11-12-2015, 09:15 PM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
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there aren't any year-round schools where the highest priced real estate in Wake County is ITB. Some of the SE Raleigh, but within the confines of the 440 Beltline, areas are asssigned to MYR school in Cary.
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Old 11-12-2015, 09:22 PM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
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I don't know who pays for these things, but I sure hope it wasn't your tax dollars.
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Old 11-13-2015, 04:47 AM
 
Location: Cary, NC
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Well, now I will have to read the link to answer my questions:

"Price penalty?"
Does this imply that schools in year round zones are more affordable, or do owners routinely take a hit on resale after paying a high price to own?
If you buy for 1%--2% less than comparables in another zone, and sell with a market value that is still 1%--2% less, how are you penalized?

Off to do my homework....

ETA: Whoops. I don't have $19.95 worth of curiosity. So, I will have to wait for the N&O to skim and misquote the research.

Further....
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...7757/49/supp/C

The effect of multi-track year-round academic calendars on property values: Evidence from district imposed school calendar conversionsOriginal Research Article
Pages 157-171
Brooks Depro, Kathryn Rouse
Purchase PDF - $19.95

Highlights
• We estimate the impact of multi-track year-round calendars on property values.
• District mandated calendar conversions are exploited.
• School assignment zone and school fixed effects are included in model.
We find year-round calendars lower property values by 1.5 to 2 percent.

So.....
It appears that we move away from "price penalty" to depreciation...

Last edited by MikeJaquish; 11-13-2015 at 04:57 AM..
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