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Old 04-16-2016, 05:25 PM
 
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Raleigh at 600K? Two ways that can happen. One, Raleigh annexes land that Cary, Morrisville, Wake Forest, Rolesville, Knightdale, Garner, and Fuquay-Varina don't. That raises some interesting inter-jurisdictional questions. But more importantly, the annexation laws were tightened up considerably by the NC General Assembly. Basically the only annexations happening now are voluntary (i.e., at the request of the property owner). The other way 600K could happen is vertical development. Only 130K live ITB at present. But whether people will flock to vertical development ITB remains to be seen.

Much of the remaining land in Wake County outside any city limit is either watershed-constrained or R30 at 1.45 dwelling units per acre. Either way, that's low density development.

If the ring counties (Chatham, Glanville, Franklin, Johnston) double, they'll be 770 total. Using your numbers, Wake goes to 1500, Durham (County) to 500, and assume Orange levels out at 170. If you throw in the other parts of the R-D CSA (Harnett, Lee, Vance, Person, Nash), Wake drops below 50% depending on what growth projections you choose for the outermost counties. It won't happen anytime soon, I agree, but the question looked 30 years out. This happened in metro Atlanta too, where Fulton and Dekalb are now about 40%.
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Old 04-16-2016, 07:44 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard-xyzzy View Post
Raleigh at 600K? Two ways that can happen. One, Raleigh annexes land that Cary, Morrisville, Wake Forest, Rolesville, Knightdale, Garner, and Fuquay-Varina don't. That raises some interesting inter-jurisdictional questions. But more importantly, the annexation laws were tightened up considerably by the NC General Assembly. Basically the only annexations happening now are voluntary (i.e., at the request of the property owner). The other way 600K could happen is vertical development. Only 130K live ITB at present. But whether people will flock to vertical development ITB remains to be seen.

Much of the remaining land in Wake County outside any city limit is either watershed-constrained or R30 at 1.45 dwelling units per acre. Either way, that's low density development.

If the ring counties (Chatham, Glanville, Franklin, Johnston) double, they'll be 770 total. Using your numbers, Wake goes to 1500, Durham (County) to 500, and assume Orange levels out at 170. If you throw in the other parts of the R-D CSA (Harnett, Lee, Vance, Person, Nash), Wake drops below 50% depending on what growth projections you choose for the outermost counties. It won't happen anytime soon, I agree, but the question looked 30 years out. This happened in metro Atlanta too, where Fulton and Dekalb are now about 40%.
I think Raleigh will continue to increase in population density. Raleigh will barely grow in geographic size, but there will always be a demand to live in the city proper. That alone will drive development like new apartments and mixed-use development. Also, once Raleigh hits 600k in population, that would place the population density on the same level as Las Vegas and Portland; which both cities are currently about the same size as Raleigh is in square mileage. That seems really realistic to attain in thirty years.
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Old 04-16-2016, 09:15 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
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Originally Posted by Third Strike View Post
I think Raleigh will continue to increase in population density. Raleigh will barely grow in geographic size, but there will always be a demand to live in the city proper. That alone will drive development like new apartments and mixed-use development. Also, once Raleigh hits 600k in population, that would place the population density on the same level as Las Vegas and Portland; which both cities are currently about the same size as Raleigh is in square mileage. That seems really realistic to attain in thirty years.
Raleigh has so much potential for infill development, redevelopment of lower density multi-family rentals and conversion of former industrial + end of life retail to sustain a growth rate that will allow it reach 600,000 in 30 years. Frankly, I think it can reach it more quickly. Let's just consider the stock of low density apartment complexes of north Raleigh built in the 60s, 70s and 80s. In another thirty years, all of these stick built properties will be beyond their useful life and will likely be replaced with projects that reach 5 floors or more, effectively doubling the house stock of those properties.
Since the last Census, with the subsequent snails-pace of its municipal boundary growth, and through a recession, the city has been adding about 8,000+ a year. As of '14, the city was estimated a hair below 440,000. It's been almost 2 years since that estimate date which would lead one to believe that the city is sitting in the low to mid 450's now. That leaves the city less than 150,000 from the 600K threshold. Divided by 30 years, that would require a much slower growth rate than the city currently enjoys. It's more than perfectly reasonable to think that threshold will be reached. That said, the city also has the "potential" to annex another 65 square miles sometime in the future. Some of that will occur and some of it will not. I don't think that the city needs this area to grow to 600K. Between 2000 and 2014, the city of Raleigh has increased its density by ~700 ppl/sm. The city has done this while also increasing its municipal limits. Without a single additional square mile of land, the city would need to increase its density by less than 1100 over the next 30 years to cross 600K.
As a sanity check for Wake's future growth, consider that Mecklenburg's current density multiplied by Wake's land area yields nearly 1.65 million people. Of course, that ROM isn't adjusted for watershed area in either county or park land but it does show the enormous potential for Wake without being unrealistic.
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Old 04-17-2016, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Research Triangle Area, NC
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The question isn't so much if there is land left in Wake County to develop...it's if it is desirable land/close to major employment centers.

Western Wake is filling up FAST. Definitely reasonable to assume that in the next 10-15 years; New Hill and Friendship will go the way of Green Level. ie...no longer existing as rural communities with those names; but rather becoming part of Apex proper (just like Green Level is now part of Cary; which it wasn't until only a few years ago) and filled with suburban developments.

Once the suburban expanse hits the Wake County border on the west; I don't see it "jumping" east to fill in Knightdale, Willow Spring, Zebulon etc....at least not before it spills over into Chatham County.

The eastern half of Chatham County is a geographical midpoint for Raleigh, RTP, Durham, and Chapel Hill and is still largely undeveloped. With Chatham Park plans going through and the current success of areas like Brier Chapel; I think it is very reasonable to predict that Chatham's growth rate will spike dramatically in the next few decades and will probably absorb a lot of the transplants that are currently focused on Western Wake Co.

It makes way more sense to that area to fill up before Eastern Wake does.

Last edited by TarHeelNick; 04-17-2016 at 12:16 PM..
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Old 04-17-2016, 01:12 PM
 
Location: Apex, NC
3,286 posts, read 8,523,140 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TarHeelNick View Post
The question isn't so much if there is land left in Wake County to develop...it's if it is desirable land/close to major employment centers.

Western Wake is filling up FAST. Definitely reasonable to assume that in the next 10-15 years; New Hill and Friendship will go the way of Green Level. ie...no longer existing as rural communities with those names; but rather becoming part of Apex proper (just like Green Level is now part of Cary; which it wasn't until only a few years ago) and filled with suburban developments.

Once the suburban expanse hits the Wake County border on the west; I don't see it "jumping" east to fill in Knightdale, Willow Spring, Zebulon etc....at least not before it spills over into Chatham County.

The eastern half of Chatham County is a geographical midpoint for Raleigh, RTP, Durham, and Chapel Hill and is still largely undeveloped. With Chatham Park plans going through and the current success of areas like Brier Chapel; I think it is very reasonable to predict that Chatham's growth rate will spike dramatically in the next few decades and will probably absorb a lot of the transplants that are currently focused on Western Wake Co.

It makes way more sense to that area to fill up before Eastern Wake does.
This!

Eastern Chatham is much closer to Chapel Hill, Durham and RTP than Eastern Wake. Western Wake is obviously growing like gangbusters currently and will continue for years to come. Obviously what Makes west Apex, Friendship, New Hill, etc. attractive is the fact it's close to NC-540 and Rt. 1 and only about 20-25 minutes to downtown Raleigh, but also allows a reasonable and traffic free commute to Chapel Hill, Durham and RTP using NC-540, NC-751 or Farrington Rd. It's really not as far out as a lot of people think.

The commute from eastern Wake to Raleigh is more trafficked in the mornings than from the New Hill area. Eastern Wake to the western side of the Triangle is an arduous commute, especially for this region.
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Old 04-17-2016, 01:31 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
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Originally Posted by m378 View Post
I often wonder what the Triangle will be like 30-40 years from now. Coming from the north where the housing stock was generally 50+ years old, real estate prices and taxes very high, very old infrastructure and terrible roads, it's interesting to think about whether the Triangle will follow the same path and ultimately end up in a similar situation.

Much of the draw to this area has to do with the "newness" - new houses, new infrastructure, new everything. What happens when it's not new anymore? Will houses continue to appreciate even as they get older and more run down? Will people continue to want to move here even when everything is older and not shiny new? Will housing prices become incredibly over-inflated as they are in big metro areas around the country? Will real estate taxes skyrocket?

For me it's interesting to think about, and I was wondering people's thoughts. The town I grew up in in MA has become so in demand that perfectly good, but old houses are being knocked down and replaced with 4000 sf McMansions selling for 2M+ dollars. I realize this happens here, but here it's more about knocking down a perfectly good house and replacing it with 50+ McMansions. Once we're out of space for new development, will people still flock?

Lets face it - Raleigh isn't Boston, NYC, San Diego, etc,etc. Will the area maintain once the honeymoon period is over?
I think North Carolina's popularity has a lot to do with a conscientious, (formerly) progressive state government with a long history of holding itself to a higher standard than most other states.

With lots of planning, very high levels of state pride, and a slow and steady approach, it's a nice part of the country, largely attributable to what it didn't do, rather than what it did. Examples: No billboards on Triangle interstates, pristine outer banks, saying "no thanks" to I-95 passing through Raleigh...

Raleigh and NC were very nice even back in 70's and 80's (my earliest memories as a child), so I don't think 40 years from now, its going to transform into an aged state.

I am VERY concerned about the loss of tree cover in North Carolina, however, which is it's most valuable asset in terms of natural beauty. It's sad to look at satellite images on google. Ironically the most dense tree cover is in Raleigh proper.

So I challenge all of you to go out and plant and many trees as you can. I like pine trees which add some green to the winter season.
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Old 04-17-2016, 01:51 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
3,655 posts, read 3,901,847 times
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Originally Posted by JayJayCB View Post
I don't agree with it at all but some people say NC and VA aren't entirely southern, but just buffer zones right before you enter the Deep South (SC). People really need to venture out of their Research Triangle suburbs and visit some of the smaller towns right outside the metro if they don't believe we're in the South. The town of Creedmoor is a good example, only 20-30 minutes away from the North Raleigh suburbs but a world apart.
The southern accent begins at the first interstate exits south of Richmond.

It's crazy how distinct and abruptly the accent changes through that region.
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Old 04-17-2016, 01:59 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
13,966 posts, read 24,020,524 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TarHeelNick View Post
The question isn't so much if there is land left in Wake County to develop...it's if it is desirable land/close to major employment centers.

Western Wake is filling up FAST. Definitely reasonable to assume that in the next 10-15 years; New Hill and Friendship will go the way of Green Level. ie...no longer existing as rural communities with those names; but rather becoming part of Apex proper (just like Green Level is now part of Cary; which it wasn't until only a few years ago) and filled with suburban developments.

Once the suburban expanse hits the Wake County border on the west; I don't see it "jumping" east to fill in Knightdale, Willow Spring, Zebulon etc....at least not before it spills over into Chatham County.

The eastern half of Chatham County is a geographical midpoint for Raleigh, RTP, Durham, and Chapel Hill and is still largely undeveloped. With Chatham Park plans going through and the current success of areas like Brier Chapel; I think it is very reasonable to predict that Chatham's growth rate will spike dramatically in the next few decades and will probably absorb a lot of the transplants that are currently focused on Western Wake Co.

It makes way more sense to that area to fill up before Eastern Wake does.
I think that you may not be considering that the future of the Triangle will not be as RTP centric as it once was from an employment perspective. Certainly the Park will continue to be a catalyst for development but it won't be the only one. For the Durham side of the metro DT Durham will eventually activate the slower growing north side of Durham to complement its rapidly growing south side. For Raleigh, the growing corporate presence DT will activate development more to its south and east as well as continued and infill growth to the north and west. West Cary/East Chatham would be an absolutely miserable commute in the future to RedHat and Citrix given that it is a pretty horrible one now.
The Triangle will always be a multi-nodal metro and each of those nodes will continue to generate jobs that will spur development in a variety of previously ignored or sleepy corridors.
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Old 04-17-2016, 02:42 PM
 
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I've often wondered why an area like Clayton has been growing while there are still good amounts of undeveloped land in western Wake and eastern Chatham.
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Old 04-17-2016, 03:28 PM
 
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I ain't never heard of any of this nc not being the south until moving to wake co
I never personally felt nc held itself to a higher standard. I'm born and raised here and in the 80s nc was damn near last in schooling but we are riddled with colleges and are prolly only second to Alabama in hbcus. Nc was home to Jesse helms, Greensboro sit ins, controversial voter registration laws, questionable school redistricting, 2007 race riots in cordon from high school, the bathroom laws, furnifold Simmons, the race riots in Wilmington,swann vs Charlotte, Hyde county history, etc...

This happened in 2014
Family of Bladenboro teen found hanging from swing set wants answers | abc11.com


I ain't sure and not dismissing anyone else's reality but this luxuriously forgiving politically correct nc hasn't been my experience here at all. It does offer plenty on the other hand. I think the issue is folks done moved here in droves and before you know it they meet people who really ain't from here and assume hey this ain't the south? No accents? No southern folks? Then nc being what it is has accommodated everyone and people getting into school board positions and taking seats in council when they mispronounce "North Carolinians" and say "carolineeeans" and say this is what we as a state need to do this how northern cities move and operate and before you know it the infrastructure sucks ass and then they put up a damn toll booth???? Lol

More people will move and the sprawl will go well into harnett Johnston lee Chatham Durham Franklin
The accidents, crime and taxes will continue to rise and nc can officially go down as a sell out state
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