Wake Co. vs. Raleigh growth (Chapel Hill, Apex: house, high school, upkeep)
Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, CaryThe Triangle Area
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Million dollar question... what will millennials do? Before, when suburban yards were decent sized, and the American dream was to walk out your door for a catch with your boy, I would say yes. Now, so much of the "affordable" new (far out) stuff has teeny tiny yards you have to rely on public space to play catch with your boy anyway so why not live closer in (older hood) or in city and forget the long commute. No doubt, jobs are moving to DTs to attract younger tech-savvy work force who value walkability (Motorola and McDonalds from decades in Chicago burbs to DT, Expedia, Zillow and Weyerheauser from Seattle burbs to DT, Kimberly-Horn from Cary to Raleigh ).
So, done deal, they will live in or very near DT then. But let's not forget about the schools. They will flock to the good schools just as their parents did. If these are in the distant suburbs 30 miles out then that is where they will move. Also, gains in technology are allowing more people to work from home so the commute is becoming a nonfactor for more and more people.
Bigger factor is that wages are pretty stagnant and the reason that the houses built far out are on teeny tiny lots is that land has gotten way too expensive to build houses on decent sized yards around here anymore. Thus; you are still getting more house for your money out in the burbs; you just don't get the yard anymore. A 4 bed 2+ bath house ITB is going to prohibitively expensive for most young families but doable in Wake Forest or Holly Springs.
Full disclosure....as much as I hate the stupid term that has become such a talking point lately...I fall right into what many would consider the "millennial" generation (born in the late 80s, grew up in the 90s/early 2000's). I grew up in the Triangle and am in the minority of those in my generation who have stayed. I would say of the "crowd" I was in in HS; most went to college in-state but then a TON went to big cities for grad school or for start their "adult life". NYC, DC, Atlanta, Seattle, and Chicago seem especially popular.
Million dollar question... what will millennials do? Before, when suburban yards were decent sized, and the American dream was to walk out your door for a catch with your boy, I would say yes. Now, so much of the "affordable" new (far out) stuff has teeny tiny yards you have to rely on public space to play catch with your boy anyway so why not live closer in (older hood) or in city and forget the long commute. No doubt, jobs are moving to DTs to attract younger tech-savvy work force who value walkability (Motorola and McDonalds from decades in Chicago burbs to DT, Expedia, Zillow and Weyerheauser from Seattle burbs to DT, Kimberly-Horn from Cary to Raleigh ).
So, done deal, they will live in or very near DT then. But let's not forget about the schools. They will flock to the good schools just as their parents did. If these are in the distant suburbs 30 miles out then that is where they will move. Also, gains in technology are allowing more people to work from home so the commute is becoming a nonfactor for more and more people.
Also, a lot of millennials I know are tied up in student loans at the moment - is a lower percentage going to be able to afford buying a home or delay the process of buying a house?
Great point about telecommuting - it's definitely becoming more and more possible for me not to even have to go to the office.
I have a friend who bought a house east of downtown - he and his wife love it there because he can bike/take the bus to go downtown. They have a baby on the way though so in 5 years are they still going to be living there? (just looked it up and their current school assignment is out at Leesville Road with busing) Lots of interesting trends going to be happening in a few years.
I have a friend who bought a house east of downtown - he and his wife love it there because he can bike/take the bus to go downtown. They have a baby on the way though so in 5 years are they still going to be living there? (just looked it up and their current school assignment is out at Leesville Road with busing) ...
Your friends live in east of downtown but would be assigned a school in North Raleigh, near 540? Do I understand that correctly?
Million dollar question... what will millennials do? Before, when suburban yards were decent sized, and the American dream was to walk out your door for a catch with your boy, I would say yes. Now, so much of the "affordable" new (far out) stuff has teeny tiny yards you have to rely on public space to play catch with your boy anyway so why not live closer in (older hood) or in city and forget the long commute...
I only have anecdotal evidence, but I have the feeling that once millennials start raising families they will revert back to form and seek either larger homes or larger lots. This idea of using public spaces to play catch with your children is not part of the american dream, but a large fenced yard is.
One of my friends bought a house in Rolesville, so that he and wife could have a ~2300sf of home. It's not close to work or anything fun, but he got, 'more for his money.'
Bigger factor is that wages are pretty stagnant and the reason that the houses built far out are on teeny tiny lots is that land has gotten way too expensive to build houses on decent sized yards around here anymore. Thus; you are still getting more house for your money out in the burbs; you just don't get the yard anymore. A 4 bed 2+ bath house ITB is going to prohibitively expensive for most young families but doable in Wake Forest or Holly Springs.
Full disclosure....as much as I hate the stupid term that has become such a talking point lately...I fall right into what many would consider the "millennial" generation (born in the late 80s, grew up in the 90s/early 2000's). I grew up in the Triangle and am in the minority of those in my generation who have stayed. I would say of the "crowd" I was in in HS; most went to college in-state but then a TON went to big cities for grad school or for start their "adult life". NYC, DC, Atlanta, Seattle, and Chicago seem especially popular.
So we agree the burbs will still draw folks from the city once they have kids. I think the schools will be the main reason while you figure more house for the money will. The question is then what burbs will be popular? Will new families keep pushing farther and farther out in the quest for even newer, bigger (2300 sqft+) and "cheaper" (per sqft) houses with little yards or will they settle for older, smaller (under 2300 sqft) more expensive (per sqft) homes with larger yards? Judging from the building boom and price appreciation I've seen around here in the western burbs, I'd tend to think the latter. Probably depends on the size of the Metro though. Raleigh ain't that big and spread out...yet. At some point people will say, I'm not living 50 miles out to get a big new house, I"ll get a "smaller and older" house closer in; still in the burbs though
I only have anecdotal evidence, but I have the feeling that once millennials start raising families they will revert back to form and seek either larger homes or larger lots. This idea of using public spaces to play catch with your children is not part of the american dream, but a large fenced yard is.
One of my friends bought a house in Rolesville, so that he and wife could have a ~2300sf of home. It's not close to work or anything fun, but he got, 'more for his money.'
I agree, suburbs have, are and will continue to be very popular with families. They will not be abandoned anytime soon.
Funny, about your friend. We did the opposite. We lived in Southern Apex, almost in Holly Springs, and got tired of not being close to anything (work, amenities, parks). We were always finding ourselves driving, driving, driving -to work (RTP) and into Raleigh and Cary for the parks, shopping and great restaurants. So, despite advice from friends in Apex, who actually moved even farther out to Holly Springs and Fuquay Varina to get yet more/newer house for the money, we did the opposite; we moved closer in -Central Cary. Our house is smaller and older but a huge yard with some privacy and shade (trees). Also, of course, closer to everything. I know it's not DT Raleigh, not totally walkable, but still dense and urban relative to other parts of the burbs around here. We still spend time in our cars, but much less of it!
I tend to think the days of everyone wanting a new McMansion (less than 10yrs old, 2800sqft+) in an ever distant burb are over. Maybe some "middle ground"?
I agree, suburbs have, are and will continue to be very popular with families. They will not be abandoned anytime soon.
Funny, about your friend. We did the opposite. We lived in Southern Apex, almost in Holly Springs, and got tired of not being close to anything (work, amenities, parks). We were always finding ourselves driving, driving, driving -to work (RTP) and into Raleigh and Cary for the parks, shopping and great restaurants. So, despite advice from friends in Apex, who actually moved even farther out to Holly Springs and Fuquay Varina to get yet more/newer house for the money, we did the opposite; we moved closer in -Central Cary. Our house is smaller and older but a huge yard with some privacy and shade (trees). Also, of course, closer to everything. I know it's not DT Raleigh, not totally walkable, but still dense and urban relative to other parts of the burbs around here. We still spend time in our cars, but much less of it!
I tend to think the days of everyone wanting a new McMansion (less than 10yrs old, 2800sqft+) in an ever distant burb are over. Maybe some "middle ground"?
First of all, that McMansionHell site is hilarious. It's written by a woman who grew up in Chapel Hill actually.
As for which suburbs will be chosen in the future, it doesn't surprise me that you chose to move to older suburban development in Cary for the convenience and land reasons. Interestingly, this follows the pattern of what happened to "North Hills" nearly 20 years ago. It was as if a light switch got turned on and North Hills was "hot". In the subsequent years, that hotness contributed to the redevelopment of the former mall and now the subsequent parcels are rapidly urbanizing with more walkable options. Central Cary will likely go through the same sort of metamorphosis. I'm not a Cary expert but I seem to read things from time to time about the overhaul of central Cary to do just that.
If I were young and looking to be closer to Raleigh but couldn't afford a sfh ITB, in North Hills, central Cary, etc., I'd seriously be looking at mature parts of Garner. Hammond Rd. comes out of the south side of DT Raleigh and quickly puts you onto Timber Rd. in Garner where affordable homes on larger lots are more easily found. Frankly, Timber Rd reminds me of driving the Cary Parkway in spots.
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