Wake Co. vs. Raleigh growth (New Bern: student loan, home, job market)
Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, CaryThe Triangle Area
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I will say that a national trend that I see continuing..and is slow to start here in the Triangle but is indeed picking up...is the gravitation more toward the "inner ring" suburbs. Not very long ago these were the places people predicted would be emptying out and decaying as young people moved to the city center and everyone else moved further out into the ex-urbs. I think millennials will be more inclined to take a slightly smaller and older house that is still closer to work and amenities than the shiny bigger new one on the fringes. I think this is especially true in the Triangle and especially in Western Wake Co. as new construction has gotten ridiculously expensive there and much more practical homes can be had at more reasonable prices in the older established areas.
Well said. I think practical is the key word you used. We are Gen Xers with two young children (started late) and the inner ring met our needs. We discovered an inventory of truely affordable single family "starter homes" (under 250k and 2200sqft) in a convenient location with good schools. The bigger yard is a bonus. People write off Cary as being unaffordable, this is not true. Would we have liked a newer house...sure. However, all the new stuff, without having to go all the way out to Fuquay-Varina, Garner etc., is too expensive and too big (350k+ and 2500sqft). Did we pay more per sqft, yes; but overall we can afford our house and the location and schools check our other boxes. Salaries, with the exception of maybe tech and health sectors, are not keeping up with housing costs -and have not for some time. We also like to think buying used and closer in is greener -as the best recycling is reusing and we do less driving while slowing the sprawl into nature.
Anyways back on topic. I think that in general, nationwide, millennials tend to gravitate towards urban areas moreso than generations past. I think that the reason they stay longer is more along the lines of most of our generation waiting longer to get married and have kids (this is the case nationwide, but not so much in the triangle...which is why I don't think the "most move ITB" trend is big among folks my age). Once the spouse and the offspring come along; there is still a preference of the house with the yard in the good school district.
I will say that a national trend that I see continuing..and is slow to start here in the Triangle but is indeed picking up...is the gravitation more toward the "inner ring" suburbs. Not very long ago these were the places people predicted would be emptying out and decaying as young people moved to the city center and everyone else moved further out into the ex-urbs. I think millennials will be more inclined to take a slightly smaller and older house that is still closer to work and amenities than the shiny bigger new one on the fringes. I think this is especially true in the Triangle and especially in Western Wake Co. as new construction has gotten ridiculously expensive there and much more practical homes can be had at more reasonable prices in the older established areas.
But does Raleigh have any viable "inner ring" suburbs? I moved here from the DC-area and had a lot of millennials moving to my neighborhood in the inner ring. However, you could get into town by metro, Uber, or even bicycle, which is important to millennials, who are known to want to have everything within walking distance or close enough to live a car-free lifestyle. It seems that in this area, once you're out of the downtown part of Raleigh, you really need a car to get anywhere. And once you have to deal with a car to get downtown, why limit yourself to the inner ring? It's not like Raleigh has a lot of traffic.
But does Raleigh have any viable "inner ring" suburbs? I moved here from the DC-area and had a lot of millennials moving to my neighborhood in the inner ring. However, you could get into town by metro, Uber, or even bicycle, which is important to millennials, who are known to want to have everything within walking distance or close enough to live a car-free lifestyle. It seems that in this area, once you're out of the downtown part of Raleigh, you really need a car to get anywhere. And once you have to deal with a car to get downtown, why limit yourself to the inner ring? It's not like Raleigh has a lot of traffic.
You can't think only present day though - Raleigh is growing at a pretty fast rate and before you can blink, we may have a DC situation here with more and more traffic problems. Do you really want to move multiple times if you don't have to?
But does Raleigh have any viable "inner ring" suburbs? I moved here from the DC-area and had a lot of millennials moving to my neighborhood in the inner ring. However, you could get into town by metro, Uber, or even bicycle, which is important to millennials, who are known to want to have everything within walking distance or close enough to live a car-free lifestyle. It seems that in this area, once you're out of the downtown part of Raleigh, you really need a car to get anywhere. And once you have to deal with a car to get downtown, why limit yourself to the inner ring? It's not like Raleigh has a lot of traffic.
For Raleigh, I think that the inner ring suburbs really speak to a different time rather than always a separate place. What I mean by that is the Raleigh's "inner ring" burbs are oftentimes actually within the city itself. These are the places that were built primarily in the 50s, 60s, and to a certain extent the 70s. For Cary, this primarily represents the older parts of the town with modest/moderate homes on larger lots. The same is true for Garner. For Raleigh, this includes Cameron Village, areas SW of NC State, and areas within a mile or so outside the Beltline in the arc primarily from the west side to the north side from the Crabtree area, through North Hills and onto Brentwood @ Capital. It also includes areas east of DT along New Bern Ave.
The challenge is that Raleigh was small back then and there is limited amount of this sort of housing stock. it may be "cheaper" now than new suburban construction but I doubt that it will stay affordable for long. Use North Hills as the example of what could happen to any of these areas if they were to "catch fire" in the market.
But does Raleigh have any viable "inner ring" suburbs? I moved here from the DC-area and had a lot of millennials moving to my neighborhood in the inner ring. However, you could get into town by metro, Uber, or even bicycle, which is important to millennials, who are known to want to have everything within walking distance or close enough to live a car-free lifestyle. It seems that in this area, once you're out of the downtown part of Raleigh, you really need a car to get anywhere. And once you have to deal with a car to get downtown, why limit yourself to the inner ring? It's not like Raleigh has a lot of traffic.
Isn't the area you are describing ITB? Buses are still unfashionable but I think most neigborhoods ITB are close to public transportation. If service increases along with Bus Rapid Transit, I imagine you would see even more millenials move ITB. To cycle from Downtown to 440 to the East should take 25-30min! If Bus Rapid Transit is added to New Bern Ave, I imagine the complexion of that area would most likely change. Hopefully adding density.
But does Raleigh have any viable "inner ring" suburbs? I moved here from the DC-area and had a lot of millennials moving to my neighborhood in the inner ring. However, you could get into town by metro, Uber, or even bicycle, which is important to millennials, who are known to want to have everything within walking distance or close enough to live a car-free lifestyle. It seems that in this area, once you're out of the downtown part of Raleigh, you really need a car to get anywhere. And once you have to deal with a car to get downtown, why limit yourself to the inner ring? It's not like Raleigh has a lot of traffic.
Maybe not relative to where you lived in DC.....but few places in the US can rival traffic there....
The Triangle has had an exceptional increase in population that has brought a significant increase in traffice in the past couple decades.
Isn't the area you are describing ITB? Buses are still unfashionable but I think most neigborhoods ITB are close to public transportation. If service increases along with Bus Rapid Transit, I imagine you would see even more millenials move ITB. To cycle from Downtown to 440 to the East should take 25-30min! If Bus Rapid Transit is added to New Bern Ave, I imagine the complexion of that area would most likely change. Hopefully adding density.
We had some version of BRT in Boston (Silver Line) and I just wasn't impressed - it wasn't any better or worse than taking the bus. Just a whole lot more money building stations and dedicated lanes. I'd be happy with normal buses with just higher frequency.
Contrary to the popular conception, annexation is still alive and well in North Carolina and particularly in Wake County. Even before the NCGA all but ended involuntary annexation, the vast majority of annexations here in Wake County have been voluntary, for quite a long time. This is often done by developers as property is developed, in order to gain access to city utilities, services, and street maintenance.
Contrary to the popular conception, annexation is still alive and well in North Carolina and particularly in Wake County. Even before the NCGA all but ended involuntary annexation, the vast majority of annexations here in Wake County have been voluntary, for quite a long time. This is often done by developers as property is developed, in order to gain access to city utilities, services, and street maintenance.
True but it's now mostly the suburbs that are doing the annexations as large swaths of undeveloped land is assembled by a developer for a large suburban development.
We had some version of BRT in Boston (Silver Line) and I just wasn't impressed - it wasn't any better or worse than taking the bus. Just a whole lot more money building stations and dedicated lanes. I'd be happy with normal buses with just higher frequency.
Thanks for sharing your experience with BRT. I agree that it would be less expensive to simply increase frequency. I wonder how much ridership would change without BRT. Will Raleigh residents embrace buses without us making it seem more interesting than it actually is? I think the value in BRT beyond dedicated lanes and frequency is that it may seem glamorous to some.
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