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Old 08-31-2016, 01:27 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
13,966 posts, read 24,058,290 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pierretong1991 View Post
Umm that's like a 6% increase per year, not 33% a year.
mic drop
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Old 08-31-2016, 01:41 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BoBromhal View Post
So if a house went from 477 to 611K in 4 years, that's 33% a year. Awful return I tell you - it "dropped like a stone". Then again, he compares "all other homes in the area" 4 years ago to "homes on the market" today. Do you see how, whether by different data sets or even the language chosen - they're completely different things?
I think that the presumption being made is that the acceleration of their values has slowed relative to the market in general.
I think it's also important to remember that participating in the South Florida RE market is like riding a roller coaster. At least it's been that way for the last 15 years that I've witnessed. It's also important to remember that homes bought at the beginning of this decade were being purchased for "fire sale" sort of prices and that the growth realized since then is mostly just recovering to former values. In fact, many suburban values in South Florida have yet to fully recover and the market is (again) facing headwinds that are likely to deflate the values again. In a nutshell, it's a way more volatile market than the Triangle with submarket values swinging wildly due to a variety of factors including access to the Ocean/Waterfront, rapidly emerging (gentrifying) neighborhoods, foreign capital & their economies, commuting distances, % of distressed properties, etc.
It's really not a good market to to use as an example of what may or may not be occurring across the majority of the country.
For Raleigh and Wake, it would be interesting to see how different submarkets in the county have performed against each other over time. Intuitively I have an idea of how I think that the submarkets are performing but it would be interesting to see if there is actual data to back it up or tell a different story altogether.
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Old 09-04-2016, 09:01 AM
 
4,255 posts, read 4,676,163 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
Since 2010, Wake's population has grown 13.7% while Raleigh has grown 11.6%.
Despite the physical and numeric expansion of Raleigh, the percentage of Wake residents who live inside the limits of Raleigh has been trending down.

1960, 56% lived in Raleigh.
1970, 54%.
1980, 50%.
1990, 50%.
2000, 44%.
2010, 45%.
2015 (estimated), 44%.

What's changed recently is the very limited ability for Raleigh to annex further, compared to the freedom that Raleigh had to annex in previous decades. Therefore, increases in Raleigh population are likely to come from increases in density. On the other hand, plenty of undeveloped or under-developed land remains in Wake. How that race plays out is difficult to predict.
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Old 09-05-2016, 08:05 AM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
13,966 posts, read 24,058,290 times
Reputation: 14760
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard-xyzzy View Post
Despite the physical and numeric expansion of Raleigh, the percentage of Wake residents who live inside the limits of Raleigh has been trending down.

1960, 56% lived in Raleigh.
1970, 54%.
1980, 50%.
1990, 50%.
2000, 44%.
2010, 45%.
2015 (estimated), 44%.

What's changed recently is the very limited ability for Raleigh to annex further, compared to the freedom that Raleigh had to annex in previous decades. Therefore, increases in Raleigh population are likely to come from increases in density. On the other hand, plenty of undeveloped or under-developed land remains in Wake. How that race plays out is difficult to predict.
You are correct. With Wake growing faster than Raleigh, Raleigh's % will continue to slowly decrease. An extreme example of this sort of population dynamic plays out in Miami/MiamiDade County. The city of Miami is similar in population to Raleigh but it's only on 36 square miles of land: resulting in a high density core. The city limits have not grown in long time and all the population growth comes from infill density. The city of Miami's 441,003 population is only 16.4% of MiamiDade's population of 2,693,117. The Raleigh/Wake dynamic will never be this extreme but it is reasonable to imagine Raleigh at 600,000 with Wake at 1.5 million. This would make Raleigh 40% of the total. Given that Raleigh's been in the mid 40s percentage wise over the last 15 years, and with the faster population growth of the county, that sounds about right to me.
In your chart above since 1960, I think it is really easy to tell when Cary started exploding with growth just by looking at Raleigh's percentage of the total. From 1970 to 2000, Raleigh's percentage of the total dropped 10% points. During the same period, Cary's percentage of Wake grew from about 3% to 15%.
While this might sound dire for Raleigh, it's interesting to note that Raleigh proper now has about twice as many people as all of Wake County did in 1970. Wrap your head around that one!
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Old 09-05-2016, 06:20 PM
 
Location: Charlotte
3,051 posts, read 3,424,166 times
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By US census Raleigh grew by 11.6% from 2010 t0 2015. Raleigh added 47,174 people from 2010 t0 2015. In 2016 Raleigh should add over 58,000 from 2010 to 2016.
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Old 09-06-2016, 02:54 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
13,966 posts, read 24,058,290 times
Reputation: 14760
Quote:
Originally Posted by CLT1985 View Post
By US census Raleigh grew by 11.6% from 2010 t0 2015. Raleigh added 47,174 people from 2010 t0 2015. In 2016 Raleigh should add over 58,000 from 2010 to 2016.
That sounds about right. Correspondingly, Wake should be up about 148,000 in 2016.
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