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Old 03-20-2017, 10:22 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eolector View Post
MidPack, just my perspective, and we are just about half built-out, but The Arbors demographics are a bit strange for a 55+, being skewed towards the 55 end of things, and having a LOT of locals. This may be due to it being just about the only place in the Triangle where one could find reasonably-priced, well-built single-floor housing when we were looking. Turnover also seems a lot higher than I expected, with the very old being replaced by "closer to 55s." The Crowd is more affluent than I anticipated as well...

We come from an affluent, over-educated part of New England, and are used to being surrounded by lawyers, MBAs, CPAs, etc... even with that in mind, damn there are a lot of lawyers, MBAs and CPAs around here. Most of them are watching the HOA's plans and budgets quite intensely. The long-term cash flow potentials are... energetically debated, shall we say, at the most unlikely places.
One of my concerns about Active 55 communities was the limited market to resell to and the limited floor plan varieties. Not normally a problem but if was 2009/10 and a person needed their equity for a CCRC or assisted living/nursing care that could be a problem.
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:36 AM
 
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Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
One of my concerns about Active 55 communities was the limited market to resell to and the limited floor plan varieties. Not normally a problem but if was 2009/10 and a person needed their equity for a CCRC or assisted living/nursing care that could be a problem.
Perhaps, but with the historically large amount of Baby Boomers retiring or getting ready to I think the 55+ market should be strong for quite a while.
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Old 03-20-2017, 11:09 AM
 
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Originally Posted by pitroad View Post
Perhaps, but with the historically large amount of Baby Boomers retiring or getting ready to I think the 55+ market should be strong for quite a while.
Not in a housing recession and your aging has created a situation where you must move or be able to access your equity for nursing or assisted living costs outside of your home. That is a sale in most cases. Remember in order to buy into a active 55 community most people need to sell their current house and in 2009-10 etc that wasn't happening and if so at a lower selling price. That isn't a demand market and the active 55 communities in existence were taking a hit in some ways. On the other hand those with the cash to buy and not needing to sell a home it was a boom time to buy because of rock bottom prices. We benefited buying a second home because we didn't need to sell and got a place at the beach dirt cheap. The builder barely got out with minimal loss and people who had purchased a year or two earlier took a big hit. At any rate if you do sell it won't be at a high price and hopefully you aren't under water.

We have visited Carolina Arbors and Carolina Preserves in Raleigh and what we learned surprised us. Many of the people were getting a mortgage to buy. Really surprised me.

Last edited by TuborgP; 03-20-2017 at 11:17 AM..
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Old 03-20-2017, 11:15 AM
 
Location: Cary, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
One of my concerns about Active 55 communities was the limited market to resell to and the limited floor plan varieties. Not normally a problem but if was 2009/10 and a person needed their equity for a CCRC or assisted living/nursing care that could be a problem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pitroad View Post
Perhaps, but with the historically large amount of Baby Boomers retiring or getting ready to I think the 55+ market should be strong for quite a while.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
Not in a housing recession and your aging has created a situation where you must move or be able to access your equity for nursing or assisted living costs outside of your home. That is a sale in most cases.
So, at age 70, one funds most of the new house with a reverse mortgage and holds onto much of their equity?
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Old 03-20-2017, 11:49 AM
 
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Originally Posted by MikeJaquish View Post
So, at age 70, one funds most of the new house with a reverse mortgage and holds onto much of their equity?
I wouldn't at all because that equity is tied up in the new house and still isn't available for later in life usage. As you know better than I do a reverse mortgage isn't the full equity value.

Glad you joined the discussion as you would know if this thought is accurate. Many of the retired transplants who have already arrived came from areas that in the 70/80's saw much growth and owning those houses for 30 plus years they saw much in the way of housing appreciation. Those who moved in later paid more and at this point have less equity value etc etc. I think of my neighbors my age who made out like bandits over the last fifteen years minus the great recession. Those gains are not there to be made anymore. I think of the people who over the years purchased the houses we sold and they paid more and at current prices have less equity than we would have had.

What I am saying that the same house that gave one person age seventy 500K equity may down the road only be giving another 70 year old much less. How many 55 year olds today have really made a killing up North comparable to what us geezers did a decade ago? How much did they pay and the houses are probably at best worth about the same or so. Newer homes have appreciated but you had to pay more for them and have lived in them for so long.

What I am wondering how much equity will 55-70 year olds have down the road compared to those who are now 60-75? Especially if they need to borrow and interest rates have returned to normal.

Last edited by TuborgP; 03-20-2017 at 11:58 AM..
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Old 03-20-2017, 12:48 PM
 
Location: NC
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Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
One of my concerns about Active 55 communities was the limited market to resell to and the limited floor plan varieties.
Kinda dumb on my part in retrospect, but a worthy consideration. OTOH, we're looking for our last house if possible.

Not sure what to make of the 'more affluent than expected' comment. I don't want the pre-oil Clampett's next door, but I know from experience 'the richer your friends (neighbors), the more it will cost you.'

We're going to be looking in safe, mixed neighborhoods as well for something in the same price range as CA. But my bride insists on 1-story or at least mostly (master suite for sure) - I am sure that eliminates quite a few homes.

Thanks!
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Old 03-20-2017, 12:55 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
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Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
I have visited Carolina Arbors and Carolina Preserves in Raleigh and what we learned surprised us. Many of the people were getting a mortgage to buy. Really surprised me.
Record low interest rates made it financially beneficial for many retired folks to secure a mortgage. We could have paid cash, but our investments do better than our deductible 3.5% mortgage. Especially those funds still sheltered in a IRA.
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Old 03-20-2017, 12:56 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
Kinda dumb on my part in retrospect, but a worthy consideration. OTOH, we're looking for our last house if possible.

Not sure what to make of the 'more affluent than expected' comment. I don't want the pre-oil Clampett's next door, but I know from experience 'the richer your friends (neighbors), the more it will cost you.

Thanks!
Not really, how old are you? When you hit seventy and look down the road you start thinking about alternatives and for many that can be a higher end CCRC starting out in independent living maybe around age 80. I am a planner so we are already on that topic. We went to a round table at Searstone a new very high end CCRC in Cary. One of the ladies in our discussion group lived in one of the area Del Webb communities. She really like it but added that like others she was realizing that down the road she had no one to help take care of her and needed something with more services as Del Webb communities have none. You do have a aging community in place but what if they want to live with a family member or have a under 55 family member move in with them to help take care of them.

One of the things about the floor plans is that some of the houses have two master type bedrooms on the first floor each with their own bath etc. Asked why and it is so two non spouse adults could live together to help share cost. Like sister/sister or parent child and in fact there were some there and in CCRC's.
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Old 03-20-2017, 01:00 PM
 
Location: NC
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Originally Posted by tuborgp View Post
not really, how old are you?
62 & 60. Hopefully CCRC is a long way off.
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Old 03-20-2017, 01:32 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Jkgourmet View Post
Record low interest rates made it financially beneficial for many retired folks to secure a mortgage. We could have paid cash, but our investments do better than our deductible 3.5% mortgage. Especially those funds still sheltered in a IRA.
Sure we got a mortgage at the beach and could have paid cash. My guess is that many of the people buying Frl Webb with mortgages have pensions and solid fixed retirement incomes. Not sure about buyers twenty years from now
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