Raleigh Area Housing Update (Cary: for sale, real estate, how much)

[Stu Barnes]

Perfect example of how all the REALTORS on here have been saying Real Estate is Local.....check them both out....local outlook vs. national


Triangle housing market far from being in the doldrums - Triangle Business Journal:

OR

AP Poll: More Avoid Buying Homes :: WRAL.com (broken link)

[KCfromNC]

The first article was talking about last year's market. That's already old news - things changed significantly here after Sept '07, and those trends are continuing to accelerate down. For example, sales for 2007 were down 6% for all of 2007 vs 2006, but down 16% for the last quarter of 2007 vs the last quarter of 2006. Sales this year though Feb (still waiting for the Mar data) are down about 22% versus the same months in 2007. It seems pretty obvious which way the trend is going.

I'll continue to claim that we're not objectively different, just later to drop than other markets.

And this tells me the article is just a puff piece :

Detached housing priced below $300,000 is becoming a rare commodity.

That seems a bit of a stretch. In Wake County alone there are over 3000 of these houses available. That's out of a total inventory of about 7000 for sale. The ratio moves in more in favor of the sub-$300K houses if you include the rest of the Triangle. I'm not sure how something that's nearly half of the inventory is "becoming a rare commodity".

[Waterboy526]

Sorry Stu, but I'd have to side with KC here. I know our market is doing better than many if not most markets, but you can't tell me we're not trending downward (or maybe you can, but that doesn't change things). Those numbers for the most part are a bit old and there are tons of houses (even in good school districts) that are under $300k that have been sitting on the market a long time. Even in my neighborhood in Leesville (under $300k) houses are taking much longer to sell than they did only 1 year ago, and especially 2 years ago. Do I think we're in bad shape compared to many other "bubble" markets around the county, no, but I do think we're going to continue to trend downward somewhat before it picks back up again.

We're definetly feeling the ripple effect from other markets, especially markets in the mid-atlantic/northeast.

[Stu Barnes]

Originally Posted by Waterboy526

Sorry Stu, but I'd have to side with KC here. I know our market is doing better than many if not most markets, but you can't tell me we're not trending downward (or maybe you can, but that doesn't change things). Those numbers for the most part are a bit old and there are tons of houses (even in good school districts) that are under $300k that have been sitting on the market a long time. Even in my neighborhood in Leesville (under $300k) houses are taking much longer to sell than they did only 1 year ago, and especially 2 years ago. Do I think we're in bad shape compared to many other "bubble" markets around the county, no, but I do think we're going to continue to trend downward somewhat before it picks back up again.

We're definetly feeling the ripple effect from other markets, especially markets in the mid-atlantic/northeast.

Yes...those are "old" numbers, but the post was really to point out 2 things:
1- national and local numbers differ even if they are a bit dated...1st 1quarter this year locally is still a lot better than national numbers..
2- it's hard/confusing on whom to believe...(even we don't really know who to listen to sometimes)

I can tell you from "as we speak" experience that yes...it's trending downward, but not nearly like the national scene. I have more sellers than buyers...my sellers are taking less and conveying personal items to move their house..., my buyers are getting a better deal. BUT our market is still a decent one.... If I lived in Detroit and was in Real Estate I couldn't even afford the internet connection fee each month to type this.

You are both right....but both articles are right...who is right....who do you believe....?

[dansdrive]

Originally Posted by Stu Barnes

Yes...those are "old" numbers, but the post was really to point out 2 things:
1- national and local numbers differ even if they are a bit dated...1st 1quarter this year locally is still a lot better than national numbers..
2- it's hard/confusing on whom to believe...(even we don't really know who to listen to sometimes)

I can tell you from "as we speak" experience that yes...it's trending downward, but not nearly like the national scene. I have more sellers than buyers...my sellers are taking less and conveying personal items to move their house..., my buyers are getting a better deal. BUT our market is still a decent one.... If I lived in Detroit and was in Real Estate I couldn't even afford the internet connection fee each month to type this.

You are both right....but both articles are right...who is right....who do you believe....?

I try not to let statistics cloud my vision. I think in simple personal terms when it comes to the housing market:

1. If I need to sell get as much as I can 'afford' to get.
2. If I need to buy pay as little as I can 'afford' to offer.
3. If I own a home and am happy I do not think of selling nor buying.
4. If ones interested to track homes, pick a home or two in the price range or two your interested in and track it as often as you would like. The on line
tools are great for doing this. That will allow you to have a personal view
of what is selling and for how much and in what time period.

I have a few I been tracking in Northern Wake County that are very nice homes with large lots and plenty of amenities that have been on the market for nearly 2 years with a few price reductions in between and nothing. For me it gives me a personal view of the market place. I am free to interpret that however I would like. I'm just fortunate I'm not selling at the moment.

Other than that all the data and trends and projections and timing remarks is just a lot of foo paw IMO!

[Waterboy526]

Originally Posted by Stu Barnes

Yes...those are "old" numbers, but the post was really to point out 2 things:
1- national and local numbers differ even if they are a bit dated...1st 1quarter this year locally is still a lot better than national numbers..
2- it's hard/confusing on whom to believe...(even we don't really know who to listen to sometimes)

I can tell you from "as we speak" experience that yes...it's trending downward, but not nearly like the national scene. I have more sellers than buyers...my sellers are taking less and conveying personal items to move their house..., my buyers are getting a better deal. BUT our market is still a decent one.... If I lived in Detroit and was in Real Estate I couldn't even afford the internet connection fee each month to type this.

You are both right....but both articles are right...who is right....who do you believe....?

Very well put and I agree with your statements

[Waterboy526]

Not looking too good. The prices haven't really droped, but there was never a "run-up" in prices to in the Triangle to begin with.

Triangle home sales drop 28% - Triangle Business Journal:

[Dire Wolf]

There are some homes in our neighborhood that are really having trouble selling. One is on its 3rd realtor now. Another just went from the 2nd realtor back to FSBO. The neighborhood has always had several homes for sale at a time because of its size, but with some staying on the market longer it creates the situation of several homes on the same street for sale. A few have turned over quickly, but the ones with anything less desirable are in trouble.

I'd really hate to be selling right now.

[adlnc07]

From what I've observed, desirable houses in my price range are still selling. My agent sent me a printout of 11 homes for sale in Cary last Thursday, and as of today 3 have gone under contract. What I have noticed, however, is very few new listings come on. As mentioned in another thread, home owners who don't "have" to sell are holding off. I'm all ready to jump on the right house when I see it, but so far I'm really underwhelmed with what's available. If you are trying to sell your basic $200-$300K cookie cutter house on a .20 (or less) lot, you are facing a lot of competition. Houses that need a lot of updating are staying on the market a long time - but those with nice lots are moving relatively quick. Older split-levels are definitely hanging around - but those were always a bit slow to sell. I'm also seeing some pretty unrealistic pricing - maybe those sellers aren't particularly motivated and just want to see if someone will pay their crazy asking price.

I really want to buy a new house - but I'm just not seeing much to get excited about. One house I do like is priced ~10% too high and could easily use $10K in updates. One thing I do NOT want to do in this market is overpay so I'm taking my time on the decision. I'm still confident my current house will sell quickly - it has a desirable floorplan and it's in a good location (and will be in top condition when it goes on the market). It's just a question of me finding the right new house at a reasonable price.

Anyhow, I guess if anything all the "doom in gloom" may come in handy when negotiating a contract!

[sls76]

Sellers need to be realistic. There are three houses for sale in my neighborhood that are worth about $500k. Two are in my opinion overpriced by about $40k and listed with a discount broker. The third is overpriced by about $60k. Two of the three are also vacant and the yards are complete disasters. None of the three are on great lots. I just don't get what people are thinking. Unfortunately the neighbors will suffer as the signs remain up and the weeds grow tall!