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Really no theory to prove, you just have to open one eye. Home values are set by the local economy and what has happened here is values have been increased by outside economies such as NY and NJ. What then happens is the values become higher then the local economy can support. When the influx dries up from out of state the local economy has to carry the home values ,well look out and that is happening now. Also while we do have some high paying jobs like IT and research when averaged through out the state the middle class is making a lower wage the many states people have left. When the middle class people from lets say NY struggle to survive in that state and they hear all this about cheap homes lower cost to live ect they up root them selves and move to try to find a better life. Most of these folks wont find that high paying IT job. They buy based on what seems cheap to them from were they came from then it hits that they cant bring in the money here. I have watched from a native view not a transplants view and it is my view from my experiences with people that have moved here. A good saying goes, If you want to pick a good steak you could stick your head up a bulls xvx, or you could always ask the butcher instead.
I think you're totally off base here. Just a few points of discussion: 1) How did the house values in NY, NJ, DC, etc get bloated in the first place? I can tell you it's not because of transplants going into those areas and just paying any crazy price for a house. Things are expensive there because they had and still have good jobs and there is a lot of culture and things to do. 2) Do people honestly believe that transplants moved to NC and just paid a higher price here because it just happened to be cheaper here than wherever they came from?...NO, that's crazy talk. I researched the prices and neighborhoods and negotiated for a good deal...a good deal for here, not a good deal just because I was used to paying Northern VA prices.
Housing is not gaining as fast here, because even though real estate is regional and local, it's also still national when you have to deal with tougher loan standards and population influx/outflux to determine how many houses need to be available for this area. Don't blame all these issues on transplants as there are many natives here that have the same jobs/houses/etc. as many transplants do. Also the Triangle is doing REALLY GOOD comapred to 95% of the country, so people need to realize that the grass is greener here than most places.
I don't ever recall blaming the high houses prices in the DC area on Tranplants even though we had/have many more there then the Triangle will ever see, due to the federal government and many other industries. They had/have high housing prices there because of the jobs and economy and now things are shifting to bring them back in line.
I came here in IT (1989) for 30% less but lived within my means.
What hurts the residents here is when both SFH builders and apt developers set their sights on the higher paid transplants and create no new homes/apts within the budget of blue collar families.
This can really backfire if a tech bust happens again like it did in 2000.
I'm just glad I'm a vegetarian, that way I don't gotta go lookin' for any steak.
People everywhere think that pay is too low, there aren't enough jobs, and cost of living is rising. It's called a crappy economy right now. If anything, Raleigh is a lot better than the desirable areas of the northeast. Houses are 1/2 the price, and salaries seem around the same...
Waterboy im sorry but your response makes no sense. First of NJ home values jumbed do to high paying jobs which brought people to the state which in turn created high density and the rules of supply and demand took effect. This is what is called healthy growth because it is driven by income of the residents. To simplify an area which grows in population due to people moving to the area to fill GOOD paying jobs is healthy growth. People moving to an area because it warm they herd everyone else is moving there, they cant buy nice cars and have a 4000 sq house and pay the taxes now. and then move with no job no ,money no support and end up working at the BK lounge just to survive is unhealthy growth. Its simple economics Good paying jobs equal a strong market and healthy housing. While NC has increased its jobs it has not kept up with the drastic population increase and job hunters from last year. NC grew in reverse people came before the jobs and that is the issue that will rear its ugly head down the road. NC has attracted retirees for years now because of the good housing costs and they dont need jobs so it worked for them. And also this is to sum up the majority of people who moved with out work which is very high now not the guy who transferred in making more money, its apples and oranges.
Waterboy im sorry but your response makes no sense. First of NJ home values jumbed do to high paying jobs which brought people to the state which in turn created high density and the rules of supply and demand took effect. This is what is called healthy growth because it is driven by income of the residents. To simplify an area which grows in population due to people moving to the area to fill GOOD paying jobs is healthy growth. People moving to an area because it warm they herd everyone else is moving there, they cant buy nice cars and have a 4000 sq house and pay the taxes now. and then move with no job no ,money no support and end up working at the BK lounge just to survive is unhealthy growth. Its simple economics Good paying jobs equal a strong market and healthy housing. While NC has increased its jobs it has not kept up with the drastic population increase and job hunters from last year. NC grew in reverse people came before the jobs and that is the issue that will rear its ugly head down the road. NC has attracted retirees for years now because of the good housing costs and they dont need jobs so it worked for them. And also this is to sum up the majority of people who moved with out work which is very high now not the guy who transferred in making more money, its apples and oranges.
You do make some good points, but you imply that the majority of Transplants came here without jobs. That's not true for my wife and I. There were plenty of jobs being advertised in the Raleigh/Durham area and that is one of the reasons I wanted to move here in the first place.
How do you propose that 1000's of high paying jobs be here before people can start moving in. You can't have all the jobs in place already and then tell everyone to move here. I think this area has grown in step with jobs being available. Sure it could be better, but right now we are better off than most areas.
Maybe that is just my rose colored glasses view of things, but you can't convience me that everything you have said is truth.
Im really not blaming all transplants for making the area less liveable. My point is and as the current economic stats reflect the cost of living in raleigh has increased. I still see the over whelming perception from people wanting to find a better life that in NC you live a champaign life on a beer budget and it is simply untrue. The real truth is the huge influx to NC was largely driven by people leaving bubble markets to cash out, not to find jobs. as the hype and myths of mcmasions for the middle class rolled through the lands and people passed along to friends and family that they were moving here to run from taxes,snow rude people ect. The end result of this will take time to filter out into how it effects the area and economy. NC grew very much as did Florida, Retired people brought money did not need jobs but did create opps in medical care ect to the area and increased the cost of living. This was due to no real strong job market. The 95,000 people moved into wake co last year
are not all retired and need to make a living and I have not seen that many jobs created around here. So my point is time will tell the end result of this population surge. I do not dislike growth and have a direct interest in how my state moves forward and effects my childrens future.
The 95,000 people moved into wake co last year are not all retired and need to make a living and I have not seen that many jobs created around here.
Where are you getting these numbers?
95K population growth is a complete exaggeration!
It took over 7 years to add 205K residents. I don't think 95K of those moved in just last year!
Better check you sources.
"The U.S. Census Bureau estimates Wake County to have 832,970 residents, as of July 1, 2007. Over the past seven years, Wake County has added 205,124 residents, a 33% increase. "
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