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1) It is not in OPEC's long term interest to keep oil prices so high as to change behavior. They do not want to see demand going down by any substantial amount.
2) Even if the poor cannot easily go out and replace their vehicle with fuel efficient ones, they benefit from others that do, as demand goes down and that has an effect on price.
3) Demand growth in emerging markets will slow as prices rise. The Chinese government subsidizes the price of gasoline there. Rising crude prices will bleed them dry.
4) "Public" transportation versus "Mass" transportation - there is no inherent reason why private enterprise can't serve the needs if mass transport demand goes up. Many of the more successful train/subway systems, for instance, were original built as private, for profit ventures. Once cities started taking these over (because ridership dropped), they made them into monopolies and prevented private industry from competing in many cases. But there is no reason that has to be the case.
5) Adding buses and bus routes is relatively cheap and flexible. If demand starts going up for riders, cities can increase service to meet without breaking the bank. If prices and demand go down, they can cut routes. They don't bleed money the way a train system does if demand falls.
6) I saw a report yesterday that said that the non-speculation price of oil should be $60/bbl. Investors are bidding this up and we have a bubble. It will pop. Bubbles always pop.
7) The assumption that we may hit peak oil and massive price increase and everyone rush to move back to cities does not seem valid to me. Increases in gas prices will accelerate moves to alternate technologies before it drastically changes our way of life. The Chevrolet Volt, a pluggable hybrid car, is supposed to hit the market by YE 2010 and will get 40 miles to an electric charge before having to use gasoline. Other technological solutions are in the pipeline.
8) The current value of the dollar is more a result of Federal Reserve action than the Federal government or anything else. Low interest rates and flooding the market with dollars to try to avoid complete disaster due to the lending crisis. This is not something being caused by the war in Iraq.
There are certainly going to be people that feel pain during an economic downturn. It is simply and unavoidable economic reality. People lose jobs, prices rise, etc. The ability of government to step in and do anything positive in these situations is limited. As often as not they risk making things worse. The best thing for people to do is to live well within your means and plan for rainy days.
1) It is not in OPEC's long term interest to keep oil prices so high as to change behavior. They do not want to see demand going down by any substantial amount.
2) Even if the poor cannot easily go out and replace their vehicle with fuel efficient ones, they benefit from others that do, as demand goes down and that has an effect on price.
3) Demand growth in emerging markets will slow as prices rise. The Chinese government subsidizes the price of gasoline there. Rising crude prices will bleed them dry.
4) "Public" transportation versus "Mass" transportation - there is no inherent reason why private enterprise can't serve the needs if mass transport demand goes up. Many of the more successful train/subway systems, for instance, were original built as private, for profit ventures. Once cities started taking these over (because ridership dropped), they made them into monopolies and prevented private industry from competing in many cases. But there is no reason that has to be the case.
5) Adding buses and bus routes is relatively cheap and flexible. If demand starts going up for riders, cities can increase service to meet without breaking the bank. If prices and demand go down, they can cut routes. They don't bleed money the way a train system does if demand falls.
6) I saw a report yesterday that said that the non-speculation price of oil should be $60/bbl. Investors are bidding this up and we have a bubble. It will pop. Bubbles always pop.
7) The assumption that we may hit peak oil and massive price increase and everyone rush to move back to cities does not seem valid to me. Increases in gas prices will accelerate moves to alternate technologies before it drastically changes our way of life. The Chevrolet Volt, a pluggable hybrid car, is supposed to hit the market by YE 2010 and will get 40 miles to an electric charge before having to use gasoline. Other technological solutions are in the pipeline.
8) The current value of the dollar is more a result of Federal Reserve action than the Federal government or anything else. Low interest rates and flooding the market with dollars to try to avoid complete disaster due to the lending crisis. This is not something being caused by the war in Iraq.
There are certainly going to be people that feel pain during an economic downturn. It is simply and unavoidable economic reality. People lose jobs, prices rise, etc. The ability of government to step in and do anything positive in these situations is limited. As often as not they risk making things worse. The best thing for people to do is to live well within your means and plan for rainy days.
+1. This seems spot on to me. Especially (7) and (1), (2), and (3).
If we got our budget balanced by ending the wars, the dollar would rise giving us a breather.
Then, we need to get serious about the gas guzzling vehicles and sprawl.
Watch "CNN Special Investigation Unit - Out of Gas" to preview the meltdown if the US supply got hit by Katrina #2 and a simultaneous disruption hit Saudi.
Total economic collapse. Scary but very possible.
I worked 15 years at Exxon-Mobil corporate HQ and understand the industry.
I plan on buying an electric car for my commuter car next time around. I hear good ones are only 2 years away. Given my close proximity to RTP and all the things close by, I can make a car like this work, which will save me money on gas in the Triangle. I will keep my excellent fuel economy crossover vehicle for longer or more comfortable trips. We just need another couple of nuke plants to send the electricity to my car. This could be one of the benefits to the Triangle. As things are so close, maybe more people will buy an electric vehicle for commuting, which will lessen pollution and also make for less traffic noise.
Maybe I am just trying to hard to find the silver lining.
Last edited by West_Raleigh_Guy; 05-24-2008 at 08:01 PM..
Folks we really do have an appropriate forum for a national discussion on this issue. The original topic is -
Quote:
High Gasoline Prices Good For The Triangle?
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