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Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, Cary The Triangle Area
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Old 11-23-2008, 06:44 PM
 
Location: North Carolina
715 posts, read 1,034,576 times
Reputation: 658

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Quote:
Originally Posted by NCN
We live 1/2 mile from the train track. I have mentioned before that when the train traffic picks up the economy picks up too. The trains are rolling!

Interesting and I was correlating with the price of Diesel. I thought it might be cheaper to train it than truck it.

-----SunnyKayak,
Hopefully the long trains running are the canary-in-the-mineshaft, foretelling stronger economic times to come (soon!). Y'all may already know this, but just a tag to the folo-up comment pasted here: Rail freight also uses diesel fuel for locomotion (4,000 horsepower 20 cylinder turbodiesel engine in each locomotive generates electricity transfered to electric motors on locomotive's wheels), but due to the massive scale (only four locomotives move a mile-long freight train) the freight 'roads' probably do OK no matter if diesel fuel's at $4/gallon or $3. Just glad to hear there are plenty of solid goods out there moving from producer to buyer. Another aside; I bet more trucking companies put their trailers onto rail flatcars ("intramodal") during the gas price spike a few months ago to save serious bucks on those freight longhauls...ex., Raleigh to Los Angeles
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Old 11-23-2008, 07:10 PM
 
5,265 posts, read 16,563,147 times
Reputation: 4325
Quote:
Originally Posted by scorp200 View Post
Oh please.

OK, now I'll say what I was really thinking and didn't write in my first post.

It's incredibly insensitive to those on the board who are in dire situations and are job hunting without luck to brag about how wealthy you are, how great your finances are, and about how much mall shopping you can do. Of course, there is no need to censor here beyond the TOS, but it's also incredibly short-sighted given the state of the economy to go on and on about it. Additionally, when one posts a thread entitled "Recession? What recession?" when our entire economy is crumbling and people nearing retirement have lost most of their life savings, it could be said that those people are living in a different universe.

And no, I'm not referring to me. I have an unusually stable job that is in high demand, in a niche market of a struggling industry. The way the country's financial situation affects me is that I can't be too quick to switch jobs.


Thanks. Have a nice day.


Bottom line is this. The economy is in trouble, I hav seen Exit MA Now address and agree with this fact many times on this forum. We aren't "officialy" in a recession yet, but it's not far fetched at all to assume that at the end of this period we will be. It's also not far fetched to believe we are in a recession to the hundreds of thousands of people who have lost their jobs accross this country in the past few months, including many in the triangle. Is it personally insulting them to talk about how you can still spend money and shop at the mall? Probably not; but it probably isn't "encouraging news" to anybody.

Last edited by SunnyKayak; 11-24-2008 at 08:11 AM.. Reason: orphaned
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Old 11-23-2008, 08:57 PM
 
Location: Durham, NC
499 posts, read 1,526,619 times
Reputation: 423
The Triangle IS doing better than the rest of NC (or other areas of U.S.) in unemployment rates and other such indicators with regards to the recession. But to suggest that the recession is not real (here in the Triangle or anywhere else) just because folks are shopping at the mall buying X-mas gifts is short-sighted, smug, condescending towards folks that ARE unemployed, and simply not true!!!

I agree that people need to try to keep a good attitude to get through tough times as some here have suggested, But, trying to ignore reality by "going shopping" is the same lame marching orders we got after 9/11 when Bush told us to go out and eat, take a trip, etc. and GM told us to "Keep America Rolling". Now here we are several years later and the economic house-of-cards based upon consumer spending and credit card purchases has collapsed!

And when looking at unemployment rates, you need to consider whether the jobs are part-time or full-time, seasonal, what level of income and sector, etc. For instance: in May of this year the Durham metro area gained government jobs, but lost manufacturing jobs. Raleigh-Cary metro gained hospitality & leisure jobs, but lost jobs in business sevices. Those are NOT good indicators!!!

Last edited by roncorey1; 11-23-2008 at 08:58 PM.. Reason: spelling
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Old 11-23-2008, 11:06 PM
 
1,788 posts, read 3,914,541 times
Reputation: 1055
I don't know how else say it? We are just in the VERY beginning stages of this mess. The Triangle will naturally be one of the areas affected to a lessor degree and later in the game as it has been thriving for some time. But we too shall get our storm in due time. The impact of these cycles typically hit the hardest 12-18 months after the major blow hits. Right now, we are at month TWO! We have not even started to see the trickle down affect from what is happening.

Like another poster, I have family in So. California and they all tell me it's getting very bad there. Three of my close family members are loosing their businesses. My mother whom is in her mid 60s and has had the same job for 31 years is loosing her job, my brother got laid off as a 5th year police officer, my other brother got laid off from his job of 13 years and he is an MIT graduate! He will find work, but still, since when did MIT graduates get fired?

My cousin is a Chef in San Francisco and he got his shifts cut in half. A cousin who worked at a Ford dealership for 11 years as a sales manager lost his job as the dealership is bankrupt. Police are seeing an all-time increase in petty thefts, prostitution, and home burglaries across many cities. I could go on for miles, but you get the idea. People are hurting and the impact has not even started to hit yet.

Talk to me about how full the mall is next year, as I believe by then you will begin to see the real fallout from this right in your backyard. The strongest economic areas will be the last affected and we are in the top 5, so naturally it will take longer.
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Old 11-24-2008, 04:51 AM
 
Location: Cary
451 posts, read 1,651,783 times
Reputation: 484
Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaCowboy View Post
I don't know how else say it? We are just in the VERY beginning stages of this mess. The Triangle will naturally be one of the areas affected to a lessor degree and later in the game as it has been thriving for some time. But we too shall get our storm in due time. The impact of these cycles typically hit the hardest 12-18 months after the major blow hits. Right now, we are at month TWO! We have not even started to see the trickle down affect from what is happening.
Everything is tied together and cyclical, and once things start going downhill, it's like being in a whirlpool, and nearly impossible to swim out of.

Example: Diesel and food prices rise, so a restaurant's operational costs increase. They either: cut labor, cut quality, raise prices, or some mix of the same. If service is bad - I'm not going back. If food is worse - I'm not going back. If prices aren't a good value - I'm not going back. The restaurant will go under, eventually (I'm looking straight at you Torero's on Kildaire in Cary - no one should eat there again). This then affects not only the out of place workers, but the vendors and suppliers, too. Eventually they'll struggle.

I'm not as pessimistic as The Cowboy, but he's right, these things take time to really sink in and hit the hardest, and hopefully it's not too late to pull out of it.
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Old 11-24-2008, 04:57 AM
 
3,353 posts, read 4,950,694 times
Reputation: 964
Yup, Cowboy is right - it's affecting our area already (layoffs at Fidelity and GSK), but that doesn't affect the majority - hopefully the country will get back on track before the trickle down effect fully sets in here.
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Old 11-24-2008, 05:13 AM
 
186 posts, read 548,673 times
Reputation: 71
I hope no one is really basing their finances on this forum. It's nice to have hope but better to have common sense. I would base my decisions on the facts. not if someone thinks a store is busy or not.
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Old 11-24-2008, 05:15 AM
 
Location: Apex, NC
3,297 posts, read 8,540,791 times
Reputation: 3065
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Taylor View Post
Agreed.
This particular forum is much too full of arrogant, pretentious, condescending elitists.
I totally resent that remark! I'm am not an elitist by any stretch and probably make less money than yourself. I'm a realist! Sure the economy is not doing that well right now, but the media is always spinning it whatever way they can to make a story out of it, just like half the lies they spun about Sarah Palin.

Do I think it will get worse here in the Triangle? Yes! Do I think we'll be as bad off as California? NO! Most places won't be as bad off as California, because we never saw the same kind of run up and collapse of the real estate market. California is a pretty state, but they are messed up in so many ways that NC is not (believe it or not). Think our budget deficit is bad? California has been in a deficit for how long?...20 years?

We'll feel some pain, but I guarantee you that we will not be as bad off or even close to as bad off as CA.
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Old 11-24-2008, 06:13 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
9,059 posts, read 12,953,732 times
Reputation: 1401
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Taylor View Post
Agreed.
This particular forum is much too full of arrogant, pretentious, condescending elitists.
I'm wiling to bet considerable amounts of money that they also are fibbing and exaggerating their claims. You have to factor in the CD "fluffing" of information, since we don't have the ability to peek into their financial lives. It's amazing what folks will take on face value from childish claims of wealth.

Last edited by ViewFromThePeak; 11-24-2008 at 06:26 AM..
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Old 11-24-2008, 06:23 AM
 
Location: Chapel Hill, NC
1,105 posts, read 2,729,680 times
Reputation: 602
One thing to note -- the sales drop in October was in the range of 1-2%. Given the nature of retail, the sort of drop, especially given that it was unexpected until recently, is devastating to many of these stores. But think about it, 1-2%. You're walking around the mail and you see lots of people carrying out packages. Can you really tell whether in the aggregate they're purchasing 1-2% less than they did last year? Not a chance. That's why I (and, really, most people interested in the state of the economy) put much more stock in data rather than anecdotes like "the restaurant was crowded -- I had to wait for a table!"
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