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Month ago if I hadn't been listening to the news I would have thought things weren't too bad on an outward note here locally. Today looking for some items I passed by quite a few malls in Cary, Apex and Morrisville. Wow the number of shops shuttered and signs of foreclosures really gave me the willies.
I was thinking what will it be a few months from now? Soup lines?
Its all over the country, but... last time it was the dot-com bubble. You've got to base the economy on real productive things - not buying more crap for the sake of buying more crap financed the Chinese underwriting our national debt.
Saturn- Again no disrespect but you haved no idea of which you speak. people will always get sick and die. what i sell HAS to be purchased by Doc's and always will. ALWAYS. The competition is fierce, but our market will ALWAYS be there. You have no idea how insulated my industry is. You really should not even try and speculate. Oregon and medicaid have ZERO to do with what I sell.
It seems that much of your information is anecdotal and your replies show little restraint on taking saturnfan's comments personally. 2008 may have been a great year but hospitals have just starting laying off staff. Some industries just contract later than others, just like when a year or two ago when folks in the triangle though that the local housing market was "bulletproof".
Many countries NEED medical care, yet still don't get it. During the GD, many went sick and died with little medical attention. The government is broke and I can almost guarantee any attempts to "patch" health care with spending are doomed to fail. They can either entirely drop the bureaucracy of HMOs/PPOs/etc or create universal coverage to stop the fiscal bleeding, the former being the healthier choice for the economy. Any way you look at it, I doubt health care will remain a "healthy" industry in the future. You may personally still do well (keep in mind during the GD many people still survived or even thrived), but I can assure you the industry itself will not.
saturn- you have no idea what you are taliking about buddy.
Agreed. The REAL money ain't in the equipment itself. . . . . it's the chemicals etc that make the big profits. Like how you can buy a printer for $99 but each cartridge costs $40.
I would tend to agree with most of this assessment. Because today there are so many government jobs, the economy won't tank all at once as it did to cause the Great Depression. The only thing that I worry about is the huge amount of money that we're borrowing to throw at it right now ... and how that might effect us if things don't turn around soon.
This is what is exactly wrong with our country. So much BS "services" and so little growth in producing real goods. Even our innovation only leaves few wealthy as ideas and technology behind it are sent abroad to take advantage of a cheap labor force.
I think this all has the potential of becoming worse then the "Great Depression". There the economy just stopped working. Now when things hit the hard bottom people will realize we sold off or wealth. The jobs and economy won't be coming back here in U.S.
The growth will be seen in other countries after recovering from the shock of US economy collapse.
The U.S new order in world will something akin to what Mexico is today.
This is what is exactly wrong with our country. So much BS "services" and so little growth in producing real goods. Even our innovation only leaves few wealthy as ideas and technology behind it are sent abroad to take advantage of a cheap labor force.
I think this all has the potential of becoming worse then the "Great Depression". There the economy just stopped working. Now when things hit the hard bottom people will realize we sold off or wealth. The jobs and economy won't be coming back here in U.S.
The growth will be seen in other countries after recovering from the shock of US economy collapse.
The U.S new order in world will something akin to what Mexico is today.
The New Deal brought about all sorts of high productivity jobs, relative to the wasteful spending today, yet historians have argued that it aggravated and prolonged the severity of the GD.
The triangle may even suffer more under additional gubmint spending, as regions of the country which are faring better than others will be called upon to subsidize the less fortunate areas. We don't have the same need for bridges and roads that bankrupt northern regions of the country do. With the MASSIVE upcoming New New Deal, this might temporarily improve MI's quality of life, but it will certainly not help the triangle by any stretch of the imagination. Quite the contrary. Many people may just move back to places like MI, OH or elsewhere in search of the newly created government work when their job as a cubicle drone @ RTP disappears.
Health care is a strange thing. I expect we will start seeing tiered rates soon, which would be a good thing. If you choose to live an unhealthy lifestyle, making you more prone to chronic disease, you should pay more.
With regard to the current economic problems, you might find some of the conversations at econtalk.org interesting. There appears to be no consensus on what to do now among the macro guys...pretty scary....
View- You have no idea what you are talking about. My industry did well in 1950 and 2008 and will ALWAYS grow at a faster rate than the economy as a whole. My company's stock is down 4% from its 52 week high while the rest of the market is down 40%. What I sell will ALWAYS be in demand. Always. You trying to analyze the entire healthcare industry has not a damn thing to do with the supply chain. By the way- I don't sell to "many countries". I sell in America. Again, I have done this for almost 20 years, and you are going to tell me about my industry. What you said has nothing to do with my industry. Please don't act like you know more about my profession than I do. Because you don't.
View- You have no idea what you are talking about. My industry did well in 1950 and 2008 and will ALWAYS grow at a faster rate than the economy as a whole. My company's stock is down 4% from its 52 week high while the rest of the market is down 40%. What I sell will ALWAYS be in demand. Always. You trying to analyze the entire healthcare industry has not a damn thing to do with the supply chain. By the way- I don't sell to "many countries". I sell in America. Again, I have done this for almost 20 years, and you are going to tell me about my industry. What you said has nothing to do with my industry. Please don't act like you know more about my profession than I do. Because you don't.
This is an interesting discussion. You're not offering to disclose what industry you're in, and yet assume that I have absolutely no understanding of this mysterious subfield of health care. I have multiple friends in many industries, from doing NSA work to municipal clerical work, and most certainly have many colleagues serving in varying degrees in health care. What's to say that I don't have one of them in your own company?
While this mystery field you're in may not completely evaporate in demand, it most certainly can contract to the point where many players are eliminated. Whether the supplies are chemicals, latex gloves, defibrillators, hospital beds, whatever. The growth took place during one of the most prosperous times in American history. The recessions of the 70s and onward are nothing compared to what is in store now. Radical changes in the amount and ways that government will spend are coming, and they may change on a dime.
Like I said, the tone of the replies suggest a more personal one with less rationality or logic behind it.
Month ago if I hadn't been listening to the news I would have thought things weren't too bad on an outward note here locally. Today looking for some items I passed by quite a few malls in Cary, Apex and Morrisville. Wow the number of shops shuttered and signs of foreclosures really gave me the willies.
I was thinking what will it be a few months from now? Soup lines?
Maybe as much a sign of over growth and over built shopping capacity. The transplants came and everyone wanted a piece of the action and the building exceeded shopping capacity. There is a turndown but overgrowth is something that happens in markets expecially when there is an uptick in real and anticipated consumer spending. I remember moving down here a year ago from an affluent area just like Cary. I was struck by the number of restuarants and shopping centers. My reaction was whoa how is this sustainable and can all of these local shopping centers stay in business? Guess what the can't.
This is an interesting discussion. You're not offering to disclose what industry you're in, and yet assume that I have absolutely no understanding of this mysterious subfield of health care. I have multiple friends in many industries, from doing NSA work to municipal clerical work, and most certainly have many colleagues serving in varying degrees in health care. What's to say that I don't have one of them in your own company?
While this mystery field you're in may not completely evaporate in demand, it most certainly can contract to the point where many players are eliminated. Whether the supplies are chemicals, latex gloves, defibrillators, hospital beds, whatever. The growth took place during one of the most prosperous times in American history. The recessions of the 70s and onward are nothing compared to what is in store now. Radical changes in the amount and ways that government will spend are coming, and they may change on a dime.
Like I said, the tone of the replies suggest a more personal one with less rationality or logic behind it.
I agree with most of your post however you weren't exactly that specific when talking about "healthcare" not continuing to be a growth area.
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