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Old 01-24-2009, 03:52 PM
 
Location: Middle Creek Township
2,034 posts, read 3,853,602 times
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I always have to laugh when I hear people talking about the worst economy since the great depression. Seems people have forgotten how bad things were in the late 70's to early 80's. People seem to forget the double digit unemployment, double digit interest rates and the gas crisis. And then there was 2001. And no one seems to have a clue what the great depression was like at all. We are not even in the same league as that. Not even by a long shot.

But now that things have slowed to the point that they have, my question is how are people here comparing the "Triangle" recession of 2001/2002 to the "Triangle" recession of 2009?
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Old 01-24-2009, 05:05 PM
 
Location: ITB Raleigh NC
447 posts, read 1,513,336 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlton Dude View Post
I always have to laugh when I hear people talking about the worst economy since the great depression. Seems people have forgotten how bad things were in the late 70's to early 80's. People seem to forget the double digit unemployment, double digit interest rates and the gas crisis. And then there was 2001. And no one seems to have a clue what the great depression was like at all. We are not even in the same league as that. Not even by a long shot.

But now that things have slowed to the point that they have, my question is how are people here comparing the "Triangle" recession of 2001/2002 to the "Triangle" recession of 2009?
The Triangle felt the dotcom bust/early 2000's recession but nothing on this scale. From people I knew the were involved in the bust, they lost a lot of money on paper, but it was not money they could spend. More along the lines of options they could not excercise verses actual stock they were making dividends on. This time around I know people that has real money in stocks that they lost.

The early 2000s recession also did not come with the massive failures of financial institutions and employers in NC. Nortel, IBM, and Wachovia all come to mind as local companies that are being hit hard. I have a friend that is a mortgage processor and has been working off and on for 3 years now. The broker I used is also out of business. A friend just got laid off from a high tech startup this week. Another friends company is doing a second round of layoffs soon. My company did a round of layoffs last year, the first in their 25 plus year history. Construction companies are folding, projects that are started are sitting half built.

I would not say we are a the level of the 1930's Depression but I would say we are in the worst recession since that era. I was born in a town that did not recover from the 70's recession until the late 80's to early 90's. The town had two major industries and both of those were hit hard. There was a 20-40% population decrease (depending on who you ask) in the area. I grew up in a town where food stamps were more common than postage stamps (I still love mac and cheese and hot dogs because of this). I don't think the Triangle will have the problems my home town did, but once single industry towns fail around us we will begin to feel the pain more than we already are.

This is the reason I keep telling people that are not feeling the pain of the recession to go out and help those that are. Food, money, even paying someone out of work to mow the lawn when you are perfectly able and willing to will help out these people.
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Old 01-24-2009, 07:01 PM
 
Location: Phila
440 posts, read 819,465 times
Reputation: 516
I was around in 2001 and got laid off from Nortel, I just got laid off from Credit Suisse recently. This is much worse I think and I think we are not even in the 4th inning yet. This is more global than I remember in 2001. The debt and leverage levels are off the charts, the gov is bailing out and nationalizing banks. That didn't happen in 2001. The whole monetary and banking system is at risk. It is after all kind of a fraud and now money is being printed like crazy and the US exports less and less. This won't turn around soon. They should let the banks fail, let the inflated property values fall and stop trying to prop everything up. There is no easy way out. The Gov is just stalling the innevitable.

Much bigger difference from a dot com bubble and real estate bubble and the fallout to the credit system. Of course it all depends on where you are watching from. The difference between a depression and a recession could be whether or not you have a job.

The great depression, while we are not there yet, lasted 10 years. Only time will tell. I don't think we will have soup lines, but I think we will see double digit unemployment for sure.
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Old 01-24-2009, 07:28 PM
 
1,162 posts, read 1,842,801 times
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We haven't forgotten. The interest rate on our starter home in 1982 was 17.65%. Can you believe that?

In 2000 just about everyone we knew was out of work.
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Old 01-24-2009, 07:49 PM
 
1,840 posts, read 5,125,454 times
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There's no comparison on the biotech/pharma side of things. Glaxo was hiring, a half dozen startups got funding. Now, Glaxo is firing and venture capitol is cowering in a closet somewhere.
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Old 01-24-2009, 07:59 PM
 
1,788 posts, read 3,469,270 times
Reputation: 1039
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlton Dude View Post
I always have to laugh when I hear people talking about the worst economy since the great depression. Seems people have forgotten how bad things were in the late 70's to early 80's. People seem to forget the double digit unemployment, double digit interest rates and the gas crisis. And then there was 2001. And no one seems to have a clue what the great depression was like at all. We are not even in the same league as that. Not even by a long shot.

But now that things have slowed to the point that they have, my question is how are people here comparing the "Triangle" recession of 2001/2002 to the "Triangle" recession of 2009?
I was not here then, so my comment to your statement is limited. I just wanted to point out one thing...........the brewing storm we face, not just here, but as a nation, has only just begun. So to make a comparison at this time is not relevant. All our politicians are telling us it is going to get worse and in most cases, much worse. And when all politicians, including our newly elected President say such things, you know it is going to bad, as they typically like to let everyone down easily.

I think we will get hit, but not near as badly as much of the nation. However, if you personally loose your job, then your life as you know it changes. I think we wil see 12-15% unemployment in the Triangle over the nest 24 months. In places like California, YIKES, they are already estimated to be at 12% and worsening by the day. They are closing schools, leaving bridges half built and the state is about to go officially bankrupt. Now that is bad. You can buy California muni bonds at 10 cents to the dollar face value!

Another tale, tale sign. Trucking companies across the board are laying off. Trucking companies are the very last to lay people off.

We will survive, here and as a nation, but the ipod generation, will have a hard time accpeting these tough times.
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Old 01-24-2009, 08:33 PM
 
Location: Wake Forest
2,812 posts, read 6,446,275 times
Reputation: 1958
This thread is 'Doom and Gloom' Maxi-mus. IMO it will not get that bad. We will not see 15% unemployment. The Federal Government by Mid February will start to pump over $850 Billion dollars into the US economy. Try to fathom that amount a money for a moment. I know I can't! We will build more Alaskan type bridges to no where right here in the lower 48 states than we thought possible. NC will benefit from those roads, bridges, wind mills, and coal fired electric plants as any other state.
But before we all get to excited about all that infrastructure spending, we need to ask our selfs and then out representatives where the materials for this next 'New Deal' will be coming from. How much, steel, concrete, wire, motors, electronic assemblies, copper wire, and workers will actually come from the USA? Should not the spending bill have provisions that guarantees that at least 50% of the material must be made right here in the USA by American workers? That would ensure Americans are working and benefiting from $850 Billion dollars of their children and grandchildren's future hard earned tax dollars. That is the least I can do for my children and grandchildren and their children and so on and so on. This will keep the free money circulating within the American economy to get the most benefit from something we don't really have anyway.

The free money will make things turn in the second half of 2009. Will it stop the inevitable debt ridden federal budget and its un payable future interest on that debt, NO. But all the people making those spend decisions will not be in office when the bill comes due anyway.

So I am not on the Doom and Gloom side of this thread. I truly believe it will get better in the next 12 to 36 months while the free money flows. After that it is anyones guess.

BTW: just so no one thinks there is no pork in this $850B spending package, I seen reported that $768M is ear marked for after school lunch programs. SO what else is hidden in $850B. Surely there must be at least 850 billion more opportunities pork.
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Old 01-24-2009, 08:41 PM
 
1,162 posts, read 1,842,801 times
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I thought the $$$ wasn't flowing until late 2010 just in time to re-elect congress...
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Old 01-24-2009, 08:58 PM
 
1,788 posts, read 3,469,270 times
Reputation: 1039
Quote:
Originally Posted by dansdrive View Post
This thread is 'Doom and Gloom' Maxi-mus. IMO it will not get that bad. We will not see 15% unemployment. The Federal Government by Mid February will start to pump over $850 Billion dollars into the US economy. Try to fathom that amount a money for a moment. I know I can't! We will build more Alaskan type bridges to no where right here in the lower 48 states than we thought possible. NC will benefit from those roads, bridges, wind mills, and coal fired electric plants as any other state.
But before we all get to excited about all that infrastructure spending, we need to ask our selfs and then out representatives where the materials for this next 'New Deal' will be coming from. How much, steel, concrete, wire, motors, electronic assemblies, copper wire, and workers will actually come from the USA? Should not the spending bill have provisions that guarantees that at least 50% of the material must be made right here in the USA by American workers? That would ensure Americans are working and benefiting from $850 Billion dollars of their children and grandchildren's future hard earned tax dollars. That is the least I can do for my children and grandchildren and their children and so on and so on. This will keep the free money circulating within the American economy to get the most benefit from something we don't really have anyway.

The free money will make things turn in the second half of 2009. Will it stop the inevitable debt ridden federal budget and its un payable future interest on that debt, NO. But all the people making those spend decisions will not be in office when the bill comes due anyway.

So I am not on the Doom and Gloom side of this thread. I truly believe it will get better in the next 12 to 36 months while the free money flows. After that it is anyones guess.

BTW: just so no one thinks there is no pork in this $850B spending package, I seen reported that $768M is ear marked for after school lunch programs. SO what else is hidden in $850B. Surely there must be at least 850 billion more opportunities pork.
I added some local stuff in my post

The reasons you listed are exactly why I made my dire prediction. The federal government has never run anything that the private sector has done, better. NEVER, The original $ 800 billion bailout money did absolutely nothing. The government wants to use a credit card to try and get things moving. It won't work, or may work for a few quarters and that is it. It's going to get ugly. Look at the great depression, most people don;t know we started out of the mess at 6 points in time, then slipped into a worse state each time, by bad moves by the government. I fear we are doing this again.

We need infrastructure that feeds into the private sector, not the goverment using a credit card to take over entire industry.

I just hope our local government does not get caught up in this concept at a local level.
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Old 01-24-2009, 09:30 PM
 
Location: Wake Forest
2,812 posts, read 6,446,275 times
Reputation: 1958
Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaCowboy View Post
I added some local stuff in my post

The reasons you listed are exactly why I made my dire prediction. The federal government has never run anything that the private sector has done, better. NEVER, The original $ 800 billion bailout money did absolutely nothing. The government wants to use a credit card to try and get things moving. It won't work, or may work for a few quarters and that is it. It's going to get ugly. Look at the great depression, most people don;t know we started out of the mess at 6 points in time, then slipped into a worse state each time, by bad moves by the government. I fear we are doing this again.

We need infrastructure that feeds into the private sector, not the government using a credit card to take over entire industry.

I just hope our local government does not get caught up in this concept at a local level.
Just so you have the facts on what the spending proposal is: This website has all the requested spending broken down.

http://appropriations.house.gov/pdf/PressSummary01-21-09.pdf (broken link)
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