Jan 2009 Triangle MLS Stats (Raleigh, Durham: bank owned, for sale, real estate)

[KCfromNC]

It's starting to become a trend - we get snow, the Triangle MLS releases their monthly stats. I doubt the snow will be here again next month, but you can always hope...

As usual, these are drawn from the data at TMLS Market Dynamics

Before I give this month's data, there was a large revision in the Dec data in this current release. A lot of sales were added to the December numbers - I'm not sure if the data was missing because of holiday delays or what, but it bumped the sales numbers up a bit. They're still way behind Dec 07, but not quite as bad as initially reported (more like down 30% compared to down 40+%).

Additionally, in most of the counties these new sales were at lower prices. So for example, instead of being up 2.4%, the median price in Wake County was actually flat compared to a year ago. I'm not sure what makes less expensive properties more likely to be reported late, but it seems there's something that made it happen for December...

Anyway, keep in mind that there may be later revisions to the data, but I'm stuck with what's publicly available. That means you guys are stuck with it too (sorry).

Also, the months-of-inventory number that we were discussing last month seems to have been tweaked a bit (or it just changed because of revisions to the sold/under contract numbers). The reported number is calculated by dividing the number of houses for sale by the number under contract. That's as good a way as any of doing it - some houses under contract won't close, but since the number of sales changes quite a bit as the season does, it's hard to say that any sales-related number from this month is useful for projecting a trend 12 months out. It's not an exact figure, but the fact that it's double what you'd expect in a balanced market tells you what you need to know.

All numbers below are changes compared to last January unless otherwise noted.

Overall Triangle

• Sales down 44%
• Inventory is down 2.5%, but 20% higher than 2 years ago
• There are 13 months of inventory on the market
• Average price is down 3.5%, and down 0.2% from 2 years ago
• Median price is down 3.5%, and down 0.3% from 2 years ago

Wake County

• Sales are down 44%
• Inventory is up 2.3%, and 32% higher than 2 years ago
• There are 12 months of inventory on the market
• Average price is down 3%, but still 3.4% higher than 2 years ago
• Median price is down 0.2% but still 1.4% higher than 2 years ago

Durham County

• Sales down 45%
• Inventory down 11%, and down 5% from 2 years ago
• There are 10 months of inventory on the market
• Average prices are up 0.4%, but down 2.3% versus 2 years ago
• Median price is down 2.4%, and flat compared to 2 years ago

Johnston County

• Sales down 49%
• Inventory down 9%, but still up 12% compared to 2 years ago
• There are 13 months of inventory on the market
• Average price is down 1.9%, but up 4.8% from 2 years ago
• Median price is down 1.6%, but up 0.6% from 2 years ago

Orange County

• Sales are down 44%
• Inventory is down 10% from last year, but still 16% higher than 2 years ago
• There are 13 months of inventory on the market
• Average price down 14.6%, and down 14.7% from 2 years ago
• Median price is up 10.4%, but down 9.7% from 2 years ago

After seeing a slightly less worse set of sales numbers in the updated December numbers, we're back to the 40% worse than last year pattern. I'll wait and see if the current Jan numbers get revised up before drawing too many conclusions here. If they stay the same, December was just a blip as people closed before the end of the year for tax reasons and so on. If the Jan numbers get revised up, it could be hinting that the biggest drops in sales are over. That doesn't mean that sales would be recovering, just that they're not dropping as fast as they have been. We'll see.

Inventory is starting to stabilize. Unfortunately, it's at pretty high numbers both in an absolute sense and compared to the sales volume. Right now we're about 12% below the summer peak from last year - that's a bit bigger than normal drop from peak summer season to middle of winter. There's always a bunch of expired listings this time of year as people take houses off the market for the holidays, though, so we'll what happens to the number of listings as the spring market boom picks up speed.

Ignoring Orange county, the price data this month is pretty consistent. It shows prices down a bit compared to last year more or less flat from two years ago. As I've said in each of these reports for a while, though, the price data jumps around quite a bit as the mix of houses change, so don't rely too much on these numbers.

The Orange county data is reporting on only 40 houses sold, so small changes in the mix of houses can mean a big move in the averages. Considering that the changes in the median and average prices are off by 25%, I'd say that there's more noise than real information there.

[chuckreis]

Originally Posted by KCfromNC

It's starting to become a trend - we get snow, the Triangle MLS releases their monthly stats. I doubt the snow will be here again next month, but you can always hope...

As usual, these are drawn from the data at TMLS Market Dynamics

Before I give this month's data, there was a large revision in the Dec data in this current release. A lot of sales were added to the December numbers - I'm not sure if the data was missing because of holiday delays or what, but it bumped the sales numbers up a bit. They're still way behind Dec 07, but not quite as bad as initially reported (more like down 30% compared to down 40+%).

Additionally, in most of the counties these new sales were at lower prices. So for example, instead of being up 2.4%, the median price in Wake County was actually flat compared to a year ago. I'm not sure what makes less expensive properties more likely to be reported late, but it seems there's something that made it happen for December...

Anyway, keep in mind that there may be later revisions to the data, but I'm stuck with what's publicly available. That means you guys are stuck with it too (sorry).

Also, the months-of-inventory number that we were discussing last month seems to have been tweaked a bit (or it just changed because of revisions to the sold/under contract numbers). The reported number is calculated by dividing the number of houses for sale by the number under contract. That's as good a way as any of doing it - some houses under contract won't close, but since the number of sales changes quite a bit as the season does, it's hard to say that any sales-related number from this month is useful for projecting a trend 12 months out. It's not an exact figure, but the fact that it's double what you'd expect in a balanced market tells you what you need to know.

All numbers below are changes compared to last January unless otherwise noted.

Overall Triangle

• Sales down 44%
• Inventory is down 2.5%, but 20% higher than 2 years ago
• There are 13 months of inventory on the market
• Average price is down 3.5%, and down 0.2% from 2 years ago
• Median price is down 3.5%, and down 0.3% from 2 years ago

Wake County

• Sales are down 44%
• Inventory is up 2.3%, and 32% higher than 2 years ago
• There are 12 months of inventory on the market
• Average price is down 3%, but still 3.4% higher than 2 years ago
• Median price is down 0.2% but still 1.4% higher than 2 years ago

Durham County

• Sales down 45%
• Inventory down 11%, and down 5% from 2 years ago
• There are 10 months of inventory on the market
• Average prices are up 0.4%, but down 2.3% versus 2 years ago
• Median price is down 2.4%, and flat compared to 2 years ago

Johnston County

• Sales down 49%
• Inventory down 9%, but still up 12% compared to 2 years ago
• There are 13 months of inventory on the market
• Average price is down 1.9%, but up 4.8% from 2 years ago
• Median price is down 1.6%, but up 0.6% from 2 years ago

Orange County

• Sales are down 44%
• Inventory is down 10% from last year, but still 16% higher than 2 years ago
• There are 13 months of inventory on the market
• Average price down 14.6%, and down 14.7% from 2 years ago
• Median price is up 10.4%, but down 9.7% from 2 years ago

After seeing a slightly less worse set of sales numbers in the updated December numbers, we're back to the 40% worse than last year pattern. I'll wait and see if the current Jan numbers get revised up before drawing too many conclusions here. If they stay the same, December was just a blip as people closed before the end of the year for tax reasons and so on. If the Jan numbers get revised up, it could be hinting that the biggest drops in sales are over. That doesn't mean that sales would be recovering, just that they're not dropping as fast as they have been. We'll see.

Inventory is starting to stabilize. Unfortunately, it's at pretty high numbers both in an absolute sense and compared to the sales volume. Right now we're about 12% below the summer peak from last year - that's a bit bigger than normal drop from peak summer season to middle of winter. There's always a bunch of expired listings this time of year as people take houses off the market for the holidays, though, so we'll what happens to the number of listings as the spring market boom picks up speed.

Ignoring Orange county, the price data this month is pretty consistent. It shows prices down a bit compared to last year more or less flat from two years ago. As I've said in each of these reports for a while, though, the price data jumps around quite a bit as the mix of houses change, so don't rely too much on these numbers.

The Orange county data is reporting on only 40 houses sold, so small changes in the mix of houses can mean a big move in the averages. Considering that the changes in the median and average prices are off by 25%, I'd say that there's more noise than real information there.

You need to recheck these numbers, I just read a post yesterday that had a title about home sales being brisk

Seriously, this is not as bad as I would have imagined, I will be curious to see the final numbers. Do you know of any numbers for sales within set price ranges?

[coltank]

Originally Posted by chuckreis

You need to recheck these numbers, I just read a post yesterday that had a title about home sales being brisk

Seriously, this is not as bad as I would have imagined, I will be curious to see the final numbers. Do you know of any numbers for sales within set price ranges?

And better yet, sales and inventory for certain areas like North Raleigh vs Cary vs Wake Forest, Southwest Durham vs North Durham, etc.

[SFspiderman]

Can't blame us for the drop...we closed on our house in Cary in late January.

Thanks for stats...interesting stuff.

[KCfromNC]

Originally Posted by chuckreis

You need to recheck these numbers, I just read a post yesterday that had a title about home sales being brisk

Yeah, but those were from February. I'm sure it'll show up in next month's report...

Seriously, this is not as bad as I would have imagined, I will be curious to see the final numbers. Do you know of any numbers for sales within set price ranges?

They used to have this data, but for consistency reasons it was broken up into really useless price ranges. I think the top end was "$250K+", which might have been useful 10 years ago but doesn't tell you much with prices the way they are these days.

In any case, it's no longer there. I'm guessing an agent could pull those sorts of numbers, but I'm just an average guy with no access to the MLS.

[zzzzz5]

You can spin the numbers any way you want. Things are bad. If you bought a place in 05 or 06 or even early 07 you will most likely lose money IF you need to sell today. In certain areas getting people to even look at your home is a crap shoot. Many realtors here in the triangle were part time people who were like the old honda salesman ads that said the cars sold themselves. That was how the housing market was and now IF you have one of those realtors well your home might sit even longer. That said, sure people want to move here to the triangle from other parts of the country BUT unemployment in NC is even worse than many of the northeastern states. Gang you better like the house you own here in the triangle cause unless you are willing to give it away meaning if you bought at 335K in 06 you might get 255K in towns like Fuquay, or parts of Apex and Holly Springs. Even wake Forest, and Rolesville are real soft on sales and prices must come down to attrack a buyer. That is also part of the problem. The realtors need to start saying hey I have a much lower priced house in these outer areas which are not so far out in relation to the Center of Raleigh or Cary.

Then there is the real ugly situation with those homes that people walked away from and empty and bank owned. Sorry those people who walked away from those homes should go to debters prison. Man I mean I am sick of the people who say oh I cannot pay the mortgage anymore and then just leave. Heck they are renting someplace else!! If they had a mortgage that was too expensive the banks should say sorry we will turn your old loan into say a 50 year loan with a lower rate, but you signed that mortgage and sorry but unless you have a terminal illness you are paying for that house or sell it!

[CHTransplant]

Originally Posted by zzzzz5

You can spin the numbers any way you want. Things are bad. If you bought a place in 05 or 06 or even early 07 you will most likely lose money IF you need to sell today.

Hmmm... I wonder, then, why the Orange County tax assessor is claiming that my house, purchased two and half years ago, is worth almost 40% more. And on average, Orange County real estate assessments are up almost 30% since 2005.

[zzzzz5]

Originally Posted by CHTransplant

Hmmm... I wonder, then, why the Orange County tax assessor is claiming that my house, purchased two and half years ago, is worth almost 40% more. And on average, Orange County real estate assessments are up almost 30% since 2005.

This is a major problem for all in the triangle that were reassessed in 07 like we were in wake county.
y assessment is 349K!! The house will not sell for more than 280K

North Carolina law says we cannot appeal again until they do a reassessment again!!! That is pure BS and we the people will have a tax revolt IF the counties and towns do not lower the tax rate to make up the difference in value of the homes and the real selling prices!

[CHTransplant]

Originally Posted by zzzzz5

This is a major problem for all in the triangle that were reassessed in 07 like we were in wake county.
y assessment is 349K!! The house will not sell for more than 280K

North Carolina law says we cannot appeal again until they do a reassessment again!!! That is pure BS and we the people will have a tax revolt IF the counties and towns do not lower the tax rate to make up the difference in value of the homes and the real selling prices!

Remember what's most important when it comes to assessments is not really the value placed on an individual property, but rather how that value relates to others in that jurisdiction. If your assessment is 25% above market value, but so is every else's, then in general everyone will be paying an equitable tax burden. If, however, your assessment is 25% above market value, and everyone else's is only 10% above market value, you will be bearing a disproportionate tax burden.

[coltank]

Originally Posted by zzzzz5

This is a major problem for all in the triangle that were reassessed in 07 like we were in wake county.
y assessment is 349K!! The house will not sell for more than 280K

North Carolina law says we cannot appeal again until they do a reassessment again!!! That is pure BS and we the people will have a tax revolt IF the counties and towns do not lower the tax rate to make up the difference in value of the homes and the real selling prices!

If all the tax values get lowered, then tax rates would have to rise