For the last few reports, I've been joking about snow coming the day of or day after I posted. I'm pretty sure we've broken that streak this time.
All of the data comes from
TMLS Market Dynamics if you want to look at the info on your own. They include some interesting graphs, some of which show the danger of trying to fit a curve to something which is more or less random...
As I've mentioned before, the first release of data for a given month is usually revised a bit as more sales info comes in. Since we're relatively late in the month, hopefully these revisions won't do much in the big scheme of things. Still, keep in mind that things might move around a bit as the numbers are finalized.
All numbers are year over year changes unless otherwise noted. This helps to account for the normal seasonal variations in the market.
Triangle Overall- Sales down 32% versus last year, and 50% versus two years ago
- Inventory is down 9% versus last year, but still up 11% compared to 2 years ago
- There are 9 months of inventory on the market
- Houses under contract are down 16%
- Median price is down 6.4%, and down 3.1% from 2 years ago
- Average price is down 3.6%, and down 2.1% from 2 years ago
Wake County- Sales down 36% versus last year, and 54% versus two years ago
- Inventory is down 5% versus last year, but still up 25% compared to 2 years ago
- There are 8 months of inventory on the market
- Houses under contract are down 21%
- Median price is down 6.6%, and down 4.3% from 2 years ago
- Average price is down 2.4%, and up 0.3% from 2 years ago
Durham County- Sales down 37% versus last year, and 50% versus two years ago
- Inventory is down 15% versus last year, and 8% compared to 2 years ago
- There are 6 months of inventory on the market
- Houses under contract are down 1% (basically the same as last year)
- Median price is down 2.8%, and up 2.8% from 2 years ago
- Average price is down 1.7%, and down 0.1% from 2 years ago
Johnston County- Sales down 26% versus last year, and 42% versus two years ago
- Inventory is down 20% versus last year, and 1% compared to 2 years ago
- There are 8 months of inventory on the market
- Houses under contract are down 17%
- Median price is down 2.7%, and up 1% from 2 years ago
- Average price is down 4.7%, and down 4.5% from 2 years ago
Orange County- Sales down 19% versus last year, and 48% versus two years ago
- Inventory is down 6% versus last year, but still up 13% compared to 2 years ago
- There are 9 months of inventory on the market
- Houses under contract are down 21%
- Median price is down 10.5%, and up 5.1% from 2 years ago
- Average price is up 3.1%, and up 9.4% from 2 years ago
I'll skip the "sales are bad" part of the discussion. They're low no matter how you look at it. On the plus side, there is a normal spring bounce in sales, at least by percentage increase. This increase came off of a pretty low starting number, so it's not a great sign, but it's better than nothing.
It looks like inventory is starting to level out a bit. It's below last years, and the rate of increase is below last year's as well so if this trend holds, we'll finally come down off of the record high inventory we've seen over the past year. Of course, there have also been foreclosure moratoriums in place which have been artificially limiting the number of those houses coming on the market. This isn't a huge impact in our area, but then again the inventory isn't that far below last year's either. Many of these bans expired around the 1st of the month, so we'll see if the inventory trend continues.
The trend in houses under contract is good. It's less-worse than the sales, which gives a hint that sales next month might be less worse than this month's when compared to previous years. I say "less worse" for a reason - if you go from -40% year-over-year sales drops to -20% drops, that's an improvement in how quickly things are getting bad. It shouldn't be confused with an actual improvement - that would require sales being higher than last year. Having the stats drop more slowly is a step towards stabilizing, but it's not the same as improving. Hence, "less worse".
Normally I say the price data is all over the map. It still is, to a degree. But there's starting to be an overall trend forming. If you take the various ways to measure price changes of the last several months and average them out, they all point to low to mid-single digit price drops compared to last year. This could be a coincidence, but I'm starting to think it's real. Wake County's about a 1-2% drop compared to last year, while Durham County is more like a 5% drop. The Triangle overall is in the 3-4% range. This lines up with other, better measures of price, which are also showing price drops in the area in the 3-4% range.
If this is true, it could be that Durham is further along towards recovery. They've burned off more of their inventory and are showing better performance compared to last year along with lower prices. The two generally go together in markets that are past the "stuck market" stage. If Wake County is a bit behind, it makes sense that their price drops would be lower and would still show sales slower than last year.
Lots of interesting stuff to watch for throughout the summer as the peak selling season rolls on.
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after a couple of days. Hopefully other folks (sellers and agents) can remove their houses away from the market for good...
