What will be the April 2009 unemployement rate for the Raleigh-Cary Metro area? (Chapel Hill: chapel)

[fester600]

Thoughts?

8.6
8.7
higher
lower

Any insider information out there?

[KCfromNC]

No inside information, but looking at the data going back to 1990, it looks like the most common trend is down 1-2 tenths of a percent. I'll bank on this trend holding and say 8.5, down from March's 8.6. And then up to 9 or so as May's college grads hit the market in force.

I have about 0 confidence in this prediction, by the way, but no harm in trying.

So what's the prize if I win?

[BranFlakes]

higher than any of us want it to be.

[mm34b]

I'd guess 8.7% for April.

[fester600]

Originally Posted by KCfromNC

No inside information, but looking at the data going back to 1990, it looks like the most common trend is down 1-2 tenths of a percent. I'll bank on this trend holding and say 8.5, down from March's 8.6. And then up to 9 or so as May's college grads hit the market in force.

I have about 0 confidence in this prediction, by the way, but no harm in trying.

So what's the prize if I win?

I am doing a Prediction Market for class, so mainly just for bragging rights. The current percentages are as follows:

PREDICTIONS Percentage
8.5 to 8.6 20.79%
8.7 to 8.8 20.37%
8.3 to 8.4 15.09%
8.1 to 8.2 12.35%
greater than 9.0 11.87%
8.9 to 9.0 10.53%
Less than 8.0 8.97%

Should be interesting... Thanks for your advice!
Matt

[Nelson919]

Originally Posted by fester600

I am doing a Prediction Market for class, so mainly just for bragging rights. The current percentages are as follows:

PREDICTIONS Percentage
8.5 to 8.6 20.79%
8.7 to 8.8 20.37%
8.3 to 8.4 15.09%
8.1 to 8.2 12.35%
greater than 9.0 11.87%
8.9 to 9.0 10.53%
Less than 8.0 8.97%

Should be interesting... Thanks for your advice!
Matt

Very cool. What class are you taking?

[fester600]

Originally Posted by Nelson919

Very cool. What class are you taking?

I am going back for my MBA at UNC - Chapel Hill...

The course is 'Strategic Microeconomics' and we are using this site -> Prediction Markets Platform - Inkling Incorporated

It does seem pretty cool.

[mm34b]

And according to the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina today, the correct answer is:

Raleigh-Cary MSA is 8.3% for April 2009.

http://eslmi40.esc.state.nc.us/Thema...sp/CLFaasy.asp

[fester600]

Originally Posted by mm34b

And according to the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina today, the correct answer is:

Raleigh-Cary MSA is 8.3% for April 2009.

http://eslmi40.esc.state.nc.us/Thema...sp/CLFaasy.asp

Is there any chance that you know how well this translates to the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

Local Area Unemployment Statistics Home Page

[mm34b]

Originally Posted by fester600

Is there any chance that you know how well this translates to the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

Local Area Unemployment Statistics Home Page

Don't know.