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Thread summary:

Real estate: Realtors, housing market data, home buyers, sellers.

 
Old 03-14-2008, 02:41 PM
 
Location: Orange County
200 posts, read 560,380 times
Reputation: 75

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Just read a posting advising someone to "dump now" as the real estate crisis is a widespread downturn. Welllllllllll......here north and west of NYC our prices county wide have held or increased. Yes you can find areas w/in this mkt that have experienced a 48% drop in number of homes sold BUT you can also find areas w/ as much as a 6% increase in units sold. When you add that back into a 23% countywide decline in units, a home owner in the 6% area is 29% ahead of the so called "average county resident" when calculating the odds of selling. Add in the stat of record numbers of homes sold in 05 & 06 and the word bad becomes a very relative description in need of a narrow brush. The media has already painted a gloomy picture.....should someone adopt that attitude if they are in a relatively strong market area?
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Old 03-14-2008, 04:08 PM
 
Location: The Big D
14,862 posts, read 42,749,451 times
Reputation: 5787
Quote:
Originally Posted by sudolhe View Post
Just read a posting advising someone to "dump now" as the real estate crisis is a widespread downturn. Welllllllllll......here north and west of NYC our prices county wide have held or increased.

and the word bad becomes a very relative description in need of a narrow brush. The media has already painted a gloomy picture.....should someone adopt that attitude if they are in a relatively strong market area?
I'm wondering who the sellers would "dump" their house too if these "holding out for bottom dollar" buyers are STILL going to refuse to "wait it out". You read some postings from the "dump it now" camp that the markets are crashing and no one is going to be buying but then they are turning around telling the sellers to SELL!!!!!!!!!!!! Even some that are not having to sell and can stand the test of time and ride it out are getting this advice. ???? Makes no sense at all. So they are to "dump it" but to whom? As these doomers have already said they are "holding out" so it won't matter how low the sellers drop their prices if the buyers STILL won't buy it thinking the sky is falling in all around them.
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Old 03-14-2008, 04:22 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,116 posts, read 17,668,897 times
Reputation: 3722
Quote:
Originally Posted by sudolhe View Post
Just read a posting advising someone to "dump now" as the real estate crisis is a widespread downturn. Welllllllllll......here north and west of NYC our prices county wide have held or increased. Yes you can find areas w/in this mkt that have experienced a 48% drop in number of homes sold BUT you can also find areas w/ as much as a 6% increase in units sold. When you add that back into a 23% countywide decline in units, a home owner in the 6% area is 29% ahead of the so called "average county resident" when calculating the odds of selling. Add in the stat of record numbers of homes sold in 05 & 06 and the word bad becomes a very relative description in need of a narrow brush. The media has already painted a gloomy picture.....should someone adopt that attitude if they are in a relatively strong market area?
You are wrong.

Orange County NY along w/99.9% of the tri-state area is in the toilet.

The exception is NYC (but NYC has never reflected the "tri-state area" in terms of resi RE. Its its own animal.


The area significantly overappreciated earlier in the decade and now things are somewhat returning back to normal. There is a bit of ways to go yet (prices are around '04 levels I believe in most areas) but its getting better.
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Old 03-15-2008, 06:05 AM
 
Location: Orange County
200 posts, read 560,380 times
Reputation: 75
Help me then.........if the mean selling price has held for over a year what does that mean to you. If 49 homes were sold in an area, the mean price and average price increased, number of units sold increased, and that has held since the beginning of 07 can you use in the tank. Of course there are locales where I would use that description but we are fed by the metropolitan area [less so due to the increase in gas prices], when the market is good in the city that eventually trickles to our area. I am fully aware it is not the market of prior years...frenzy, escalating prices on both residential and land. Those areas that experienced that for ex someone purchasing a new construction at 425,000 which is now being dumped at 365,000 is what you are referencing but my only point is that the facts do not support that 99.9% and toilet remark. That broad brush has buyers and sellers believing that their world is crumbling ..and for many it is not. It is a difficult market full of woulda ...coulda...shoulda reasoning by sellers and often rediculous under valuation by buyers. A professional should utilize facts for a complete picture......with a realistic reference point.

Last edited by OCNYISHOME; 03-15-2008 at 06:07 AM.. Reason: spelling
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Old 03-15-2008, 11:17 AM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,116 posts, read 17,668,897 times
Reputation: 3722
You're all over the map w/your post and trying to explain in generalities.

Show me hard data for the large area your talking about. I have data from the NJMLS, & GSMLS going back to '01-'02 YOY which shows your wrong.


Also, your wrong when you say "rediculous undervaluation by buyers".

If you know real estate you know sellers don't have a gun to their head and have to accept an offer by a buyer. If its "undervalued" (whatever that means) then they should counter the offer or move on and wait for something better.

The market determines what a house is worth. Buyers in the NE are fed up w/overvalued POS's everywhere. They want prices to come back in line like before the runup. Slowly they are getting their wish.
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Old 03-15-2008, 12:14 PM
 
Location: Orange County
200 posts, read 560,380 times
Reputation: 75
you are talking about Jersey......go to ghvmls...you should be able to access what you need there......I am just quoting their statistics......housing numbers I quoted are from the Minisink area in Orange County New York and not a generality. In the town of Crawford.that same source shows mean price holding thru 07..... and number of sales down 20%...also not a generality. Real Esate is local. If you go to the new york state assoc of realtors site you will see that many counties in new york state experience both increased sales but stable or increased pricing. Not painting a rosey picture just find your overall anger and gloomy forecast in contrast to some local statistics.
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