Mortgage Rate Future (Realtors, borrowers, loan, 300k house)

[gregandvicky]

I realize that no one has a crystal ball, but Realtors are in contact with lots of people, bankers, mortgage companies etc.

What is the general feeling or consensus of where mortgage rates will head in the next 30 to 45 days??????

I realized they are tied to the 10 year treasury which has shot up in the past week, but where from here?

What are you telling your clients right now?

Thanks for your input.

[DBrennan]

I tell clients and realtors one thing. If the deal works, don't be greedy, lock n load.

[dad2jules]

Originally Posted by gregandvicky

I realize that no one has a crystal ball, but Realtors are in contact with lots of people, bankers, mortgage companies etc.

What is the general feeling or consensus of where mortgage rates will head in the next 30 to 45 days??????

I realized they are tied to the 10 year treasury which has shot up in the past week, but where from here?

What are you telling your clients right now?

Thanks for your input.

Locking or not depends on your tolerance for risk- different for everyone.

As far as how to track rates they have no direct correlation to the 10 year treasury. They are determined by MBS (mortgage backed securities) which may or may not mirror the acitivity in the treasury markets.

[gregandvicky]

Originally Posted by dad2jules

Locking or not depends on your tolerance for risk- different for everyone.

As far as how to track rates they have no direct correlation to the 10 year treasury. They are determined by MBS (mortgage backed securities) which may or may not mirror the acitivity in the treasury markets.

How do I track the rate as related to Mortgage backed Securities?

[dad2jules]

Use this website.
https://www.tbwsratealert.com/Default.aspx

You have to sign up but its free. Couple of things on this info. 1st is the current coupon is 4.5% and price and rates work inversely: when price goes down rates go up and vice versa.

[gregandvicky]

Originally Posted by DBrennan

I tell clients and realtors one thing. If the deal works, don't be greedy, lock n load.

Very poor advice. Since your post, 30yr conventional were 5 5/8 now 5 1/8.
Your credibility is shot to hEll.

[chet everett]

Originally Posted by gregandvicky

Very poor advice. Since your post, 30yr conventional were 5 5/8 now 5 1/8.
Your credibility is shot to hEll.

No offense but I sorta wonder if you did compare a 5.675 loan to 5.375 loan. In my book that is a pretty inconsequential difference. Let's say this is a $300K house and you have 20% down, after taxes you are spending about $40 a month more. Now I like to find an extra $40 a month as much as ANY ONE, but really...

Personally I think the Fed Chairman has been incredibly clear that the policy of the FRB is likely to biased toward low rates for an extended period of time.

The rate that he means is the overnight funds rate, and when they mean low, it doesn't get better than ZERO, so it sorta HAS TO go up sometime.

There is a different mechanism to price 10 year Ts, and that mechanism has mostly been working to keep them low too, the yield curve is kinda interesting: St. Louis Fed: FRED Graph[1][id]=GS10

Now the way that lenders price mortgages IS NOT DIRECTLY TIED to the 10 yr T's, but over time they do move similarly, so it takes no great leap to suggest that we are STILL in a period of remarkably low cost mortgages and will remain so for quite some time.

The short time waggles that ARE triggered by truly 'unforeseen' events can shift things much more than .5% and suppose it would make bigger difference over the life of a loan, but until someone perfects a time machine that is just something you to accept...

[gregandvicky]

Originally Posted by chet everett

No offense but I sorta wonder if you did compare a 5.675 loan to 5.375 loan. In my book that is a pretty inconsequential difference. Let's say this is a $300K house and you have 20% down, after taxes you are spending about $40 a month more. Now I like to find an extra $40 a month as much as ANY ONE, but really...

Personally I think the Fed Chairman has been incredibly clear that the policy of the FRB is likely to biased toward low rates for an extended period of time.

The rate that he means is the overnight funds rate, and when they mean low, it doesn't get better than ZERO, so it sorta HAS TO go up sometime.

There is a different mechanism to price 10 year Ts, and that mechanism has mostly been working to keep them low too, the yield curve is kinda interesting: St. Louis Fed: FRED Graph[1][id]=GS10

Now the way that lenders price mortgages IS NOT DIRECTLY TIED to the 10 yr T's, but over time they do move similarly, so it takes no great leap to suggest that we are STILL in a period of remarkably low cost mortgages and will remain so for quite some time.

The short time waggles that ARE triggered by truly 'unforeseen' events can shift things much more than .5% and suppose it would make bigger difference over the life of a loan, but until someone perfects a time machine that is just something you to accept...

The mortgage company has a current rate on a 30 yr fixed, credit score 806, conforming of 5.125. The difference on the 5.625 is $78 a month on my mortgage which is $28,000 over the life of the loan. Yes I consider that significant.
I have learned that advice on the CD R/E professional web site, needs to be evaluated very carefully. Never know where it is coming from or the quality of the advice.

[eric#1]

I am telling my clients continue talking to your banker/lender/loan officer, I sell real estate not loans. I will stick to what I know, and the banks should stick to what they know. For some people rates going up could take them out of the payment bracket that would allow them to buy an affordable home in their area -- not a good risk to be taking if the goal is to buy not rent. If the goal is to be patient and ride things to get the best possible deal then if you mis-judge, oh well - move on and re-evaluate. Every borrowers situation is different.

[gregandvicky]

Originally Posted by eric#1

I am telling my clients continue talking to your banker/lender/loan officer, I sell real estate not loans. I will stick to what I know, and the banks should stick to what they know. For some people rates going up could take them out of the payment bracket that would allow them to buy an affordable home in their area -- not a good risk to be taking if the goal is to buy not rent. If the goal is to be patient and ride things to get the best possible deal then if you mis-judge, oh well - move on and re-evaluate. Every borrowers situation is different.

I agree with what you said as well as dad2jules and chet everett. You all give logical and good advice.

I feel others on this so called "professionals" web site need to temper what they say and understand their comments have ramifications on others.