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Through out history these asset bubbles take about as long to deflate if not a little bit longer, as they did to inflate. This bubble may have started as early as the mid 1950s or the start of the baby boomers entering there peak earning years in the early 1980s. Housing prices do need to come down much more than where they are today and they without a doubt will.
without a doubt??? wish i had your crystal ball.
only thing ill add is that in my 25 years+ as an investor i have seen the investment grave yard filled with "without a doubts"
there is always something not even on the radar yet that alters the course of even the best "without a doubts"
Last edited by mathjak107; 06-17-2010 at 03:47 AM..
thats what makes the home market very different.. its not like a stock where everyone is equal and alike...homes involve alot more emotion and taste and therefore you can have a high number of homes for sale but so what. if you dont like more then 1 or 2 who cares how many there are..
it only takes a handful of sales in a neighborhood to elevate everyones home...
THINK ABOUT THIS: is a homeowner who catches the exact bottom but sells before catching the exact top any worse then someone who missed the bottom and bought now but sold at the top?
its all relative......
its like those folks who negotiate every penny in price when buying a new car and then trade the car back in at the wholesale price anyway....
I don't think the price will go down from here. The government does not want to see the price go down so they will bail you out. Same as stock market. You will not see double dip.
The thing is, right now the only thing correcting is the bubble pricing. That in and of itself would bring prices down.
What many markets haven't priced in yet is...
what homes sell for in an incredibly bad economy
what homes sell for with higher property taxes (they're coming....)
what homes sell for with lower mortgage interest deductions (that's coming)
what homes sell for with higher interest rates (inevitable)
and last but not least,
what homes sell for when lending returns to traditional norms and you need 20% down, a steady job and a good credit history-- yeah, crazy stuff like that.
The thing is, right now the only thing correcting is the bubble pricing. That in and of itself would bring prices down.
What many markets haven't priced in yet is...
what homes sell for in an incredibly bad economy
what homes sell for with higher property taxes (they're coming....)
what homes sell for with lower mortgage interest deductions (that's coming)
what homes sell for with higher interest rates (inevitable)
and last but not least,
what homes sell for when lending returns to traditional norms and you need 20% down, a steady job and a good credit history-- yeah, crazy stuff like that.
Well the consensus looks to be 2013, a year after the new president is in office.
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