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Old 07-28-2010, 08:22 AM
 
220 posts, read 968,160 times
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Home prices gain in May, stabilize at lower levels - Jul. 27, 2010

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20 major housing markets released Tuesday. Prices were up 1.3% from April, and 4.6% from 12 months earlier.


Only one of the 20 metro areas, Las Vegas, reported a price decline for May, with a 0.5% loss. Minneapolis had the largest spike: prices jumped 2.8% and were up 11.6% over the prior 12 months.


San Francisco had the largest year-over-year gain, 18.3% higher than May 2009. San Diego, at 12.4%, and Los Angeles, at 9.7%, have also posted healthy year-over-year gains.


In a way, the index may understate its positive results. It counts all sales, including distressed properties. Those have become a major component of the market, with short sales and bank repossessions accounting for close to a third of all sales.
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Old 07-28-2010, 09:49 AM
 
Location: Union County
5,789 posts, read 8,439,439 times
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glenn - So what do you think? Post from over a YEAR ago...

Prediction on the bottom

Where you said:

Quote:
Originally Posted by glenn_1000 View Post
In 1999, median price was $140k, If you compounded that at 3%/year you would be at $175k today. Today the median home price is $190k, so we are not too far off. Less than 10% decline from here, which is what some analysts predict before the bottom. EDIT: The national median home price today is $165k (4Q08 was $190k) so it looks like we are past the bottom? The stock market today thinks so too based on BofA and Wells Fargo up 30-36% in one day on earnings outlook.
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Old 07-29-2010, 08:25 AM
 
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Foreclosures climb in 75% of metro areas - Jul. 29, 2010


Rising foreclosures now................ high unemployment is not going to help house prices........

Not looking so good after all.

Peak of Opt ARM resets is due in late 2011. The storm hasn't passed yet..........
Attached Thumbnails
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index keeps going up. National AVG+4.6%. California - SF+18.3%, SD+12.4%, LA+9.7%-imfresets.jpg  
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Old 07-29-2010, 08:57 AM
 
Location: Hernando County, FL
8,488 posts, read 17,953,157 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by London Girl View Post
Foreclosures climb in 75% of metro areas - Jul. 29, 2010


Rising foreclosures now................ high unemployment is not going to help house prices........

Not looking so good after all.

Peak of Opt ARM resets is due in late 2011. The storm hasn't passed yet..........
That chart is over 2 1/2 years old. Much has changed since then.
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Old 07-29-2010, 09:11 AM
 
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Here's the updated chart as of March, 2010. Looks to peak in 2012 now.

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Old 07-29-2010, 09:39 AM
 
Location: IL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cohdane View Post
Here's the updated chart as of March, 2010. Looks to peak in 2012 now.
I'm not an expert on these charts, as I have never seen them until about a year ago and do not study them, so help me if I am wrong...but isn't that how the chart should always look? The bubble just keeps extending out two years? So, next year, wouldn't the bubble be in 2013?
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Old 07-29-2010, 12:41 PM
 
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Thanks for posting the updated chart Cohdane.

So it's looking like more 2013 before the resets (and their impact) start to tail off significantly..........

Let's hope the job market has started to recover before then.
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Old 07-29-2010, 01:32 PM
 
1,989 posts, read 3,942,390 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by almost3am View Post
I'm not an expert on these charts, as I have never seen them until about a year ago and do not study them, so help me if I am wrong...but isn't that how the chart should always look? The bubble just keeps extending out two years? So, next year, wouldn't the bubble be in 2013?
Not sure if you're making a joke about "extend and pretend"-- which is what has pushed the peak further out, but assuming you're serious....

There shouldn't be a continuing bubble for loan recasts, since loans like this are hard to get these days. So if the built-in reset is five years and no one has been extending such loans (in any comparable numbers to bubble years) since 2008-- you wouldn't see a bubble of resets/recasts anywhere beyond 2013.

FYI note the difference between resets and recasts: Resets are when the loan was naturally scheduled to set to something other than the "teaser" rate. Recasts are when borrowers have been paying so little each month (taking the "option" of interest only or less) that the loan balance GROWS till it triggers a normal payment that includes principal and interest-- which is higher than the original principal and interest payment would've been since now the loan balance is bigger (insidious, yes?).

The rate of resets vs. recasts is hard to pin down apparently because no one can exactly track how many borrowers are taking the option of insidious negative amortization vs. paying till the full 5yr reset vs. getting out of the loan entirely into a fixed rate (if they can qualify) before the whole thing explodes out from under them.

Option ARM and Alt-A's are of particular concern because they were used to purchase more high-end properties. High end properties have started to default in higher numbers and they're a bigger hit to the banks. See this: Accelerating Jumbo Mortgage Delinquencies Will Bash High-End Property Values: Part 1 of 6 and the follow up article.

Hope this makes sense. Can't claim 100% accuracy because I'm an English major by nature who's only been forced to learn this stuff through circumstances.
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Old 07-31-2010, 08:52 AM
 
220 posts, read 968,160 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
glenn - So what do you think? Post from over a YEAR ago...

Prediction on the bottom

Where you said:

Its looks like I nailed it. Jim Cramer also called the bottom at 06/09.

http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/united_states.png (broken link)
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Old 07-31-2010, 10:00 AM
 
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Thanks to the good old governmental interventions “Hamp, Low interest rates, Fanny and Freddy maa” in their bogus ( in realty these programs were to keep them looking good and their buddy bankers from having to devalue their trillions in real estate inventory’s ) attempts to keep housing market stable we have yet feel the full realty of this crash. Only Once all these program stop and interest rates get back to normal you will see the full crash come to light.

In other words we are no were near the bottom !!
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